Sanction risk perceptions, coherence, and deterrence

Research from environmental criminology, policing, and related literatures consistently finds that objective conditions related to risk of apprehension affect crime. The mechanism underlying this relationship is not explicitly tested; instead, perceptual deterrence is assumed. In this analysis we explicitly investigate that mechanism. This test is not straightforward, however, as some research shows that risk perceptions are susceptible to various cognitive biases and framing effects. Thus, we advance a framework of sanction risk perception that combines individual and contextual determinants. Specifically, we investigate whether contextual factors materially influence risk perceptions and in turn intentions to offend after accounting for the influence of individual‐specific determinants. Our data come from an experimental survey on speeding (N = 1,919). Respondents viewed videos from the driver's perspective of a sedan speeding on a highway and provided estimates of sanction risk, safety perceptions, and behavioral intentions. Although sanction risk and safety perceptions for speeding varied widely across respondents, they remained grounded in the objective conditions of the experimental videos. In turn, citizen perceptions of apprehension risk were comparable with risk estimates elicited from state troopers after viewing the same videos. The results suggest deterrence and safety considerations are important contributing factors that help shape intentions to transgress

Situational Peer Dynamics and Crime Decisions

Objectives: To investigate how peer dynamics, specifically interpersonal conversations between a potential offender and a peer, contemporaneous with a crime opportunity, influence perceptions of sanction certainty and social costs. Methods: Data are analyzed from randomized experiments and hypothetical vignettes embedded within a nationwide, online survey (n =1,275). Vignettes were presented for three distinct crime opportunities, drunk driving, fighting, and insurance fraud. Results: The findings suggest that respondents adjust two core decision-making perceptions—the perceived certainty of being legally sanctioned and perceived social costs such as stigma or embarrassment—in accord with the content of verbal communications from peers. There is evidence for this both between and within subjects. Conclusions: The study underscores the importance of accounting for both physical and social features of the situational context for crime in models of offender decision making. Implications are drawn regarding the social milieu for offender decision making, and the broader criminological relevance of choice principles

Nudging and the choice architecture of offending decisions

Deterring crime is often considered to be a process of information transmission (e.g., Geerken & Gove, 1975). Economic notions on incentives and choice have meshed well with this perspective (Becker, 1968; Matsueda, 2013). Behavioral economics, however, represents a source of further insights on offender decision-making, particularly regarding information transmission to promote conformity. Pogarsky, Roche, and Pickett (2018) reviewed behavioral economic studies of offender decision-making in criminology. In their review, they focused on prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), a behavioral economic model of decision-making. More recently, Kahneman (2003, 2011) highlighted the dual-process nature of behavioral economics, and Thaler and Sunstein (2009) elaborated some principles of nudging. These notions underscore dimensions of offending decisions beyond the perceived costs, risks, and benefits of crime

Morality, deterrability, and offender decision making

Deterrence describes a process in which perceived risks and rewards influence offending decisions, whereas deterrability refers to the capacity or inclination to engage in this process. There are alternative forms of undeterrability. Incorrigible individuals offend regardless of how high the potential legal costs are and acute conformists refrain from crime regardless of how low the potential legal costs are. Using data from a nationwide survey of Americans (n = 955), the current study distinguishes two manifestations of morality hypothesized to underlie acute conformity. Results suggest that people's moral identity, which reflects their degree of commitment to ethical and prosocial ideals, informs their specific moral attitudes, or appraisals of the wrongfulness of particular behaviors. These constructs operate in tandem to produce acute conformity. Additionally, moral attitudes are found to vary by behavior resulting in within person heterogeneity in the acute conformity characterization. We discuss our findings as it relates to theoretical advancement of deterrability and policy that promotes conformity

INTENTIONS TO OFFEND: EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF PERSONAL AND VICARIOUS EXPERIENCES WITH PUNISHMENT AND PUNISHMENT AVOIDANCE

Stafford and Warr (1993) reconceptualized general and specific deterrence into a single theory in which people\u27s tendencies to commit crimes are based on a combination of personal experiences and vicarious experiences with being punished and avoiding punishment. The authors make a significant contribution to the deterrence literature by considering the effect of punishment avoidance when testing deterrence theory. Despite the theoretical appeal of this model, few studies have assessed its empirical merit. The present study tests the applicability of Stafford and Warr\u27s reconceptualized theory by examining people\u27s intentions to drink and drive. The results reveal only partial support for deterrence. We offer suggestions on how future research can clarify why some findings are inconsistent with deterrence theory. © 2006, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC