Histologic assessment of biliary obstruction with different percutaneous endoluminal techniques

BACKGROUND: Despite the sophisticated cross sectional image techniques currently available, a number of biliary stenosis or obstructions remain of an uncertain nature. In these pathological conditions, an "intrinsic" parietal alteration is the cause of biliary obstruction and it is very difficult to differentiate benign from malignant lesions using cross-sectional imaging procedures alone. We evaluated the efficacy of different endoluminal techniques to achieve a definitive pathological diagnosis in these situations. METHODS: Eighty patients underwent brushing, and or biopsy of the biliary tree through an existing transhepatic biliary drainage route. A subcoort of 12 patients needed balloon-dilatation of the bile duct and the material covering the balloon surface was also sent for pathological examination (balloon surface sampling). Pathological results were compared with surgical findings or with long-term clinical and instrumental follow-ups. Success rates, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, confidential intervals, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the three percutaneous techniques in differentiating benign from malignant disease were assessed. The agreement coefficient of biopsy and brushing with final diagnosis was calculated using the Cohen's "K" value. RESULTS: Fifty-six patients had malignant strictures confirmed by surgery, histology, and by clinical follow-ups. Success rates of brushing, balloon surface sampling, and biopsy were 90.7, 100, and 100%, respectively. The comparative efficacy of brushing, balloon-surface sampling, and biopsy resulted as follows: sensitivity of 47.8, 87.5, and 92.1%, respectively; specificity of 100% for all the techniques; accuracy of 69.2, 91.7 and 93.6%, Positive Predictive Value of 100% for all the procedures and Negative Predictive Value of 55, 80, and 75%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Percutaneous endoluminal biopsy is more accurate and sensitive than percutaneous bile duct brushing in the detection of malignant diseases (p < 0.01)

The search for stable prognostic models in multiple imputed data sets

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In prognostic studies model instability and missing data can be troubling factors. Proposed methods for handling these situations are bootstrapping (B) and Multiple imputation (MI). The authors examined the influence of these methods on model composition.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Models were constructed using a cohort of 587 patients consulting between January 2001 and January 2003 with a shoulder problem in general practice in the Netherlands (the Dutch Shoulder Study). Outcome measures were persistent shoulder disability and persistent shoulder pain. Potential predictors included socio-demographic variables, characteristics of the pain problem, physical activity and psychosocial factors. Model composition and performance (calibration and discrimination) were assessed for models using a complete case analysis, MI, bootstrapping or both MI and bootstrapping.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results showed that model composition varied between models as a result of how missing data was handled and that bootstrapping provided additional information on the stability of the selected prognostic model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In prognostic modeling missing data needs to be handled by MI and bootstrap model selection is advised in order to provide information on model stability.</p