Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation

Potential scenarios for the forest bioeconomy are heavily reliant on price assumptions; in particular, any abrupt changes in prices have a profound impact the relevancy of any sector analysis. The objective of this paper was to demonstrate a new forest sector approach for incorporating price uncertainties in order to improve our assessment of investment decision making alternatives. Methodologically, we linked a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (mGARCH (1,1)) with three global land use scenarios that are of strategic importance to the forest bioeconomy. The three scenarios were formulated as i) a business as usual scenario, ii) a high biomass usage scenario and iii) a no-growth scenario. Our results indicate an upward trend in prices over time for all three scenarios and for most woody biomass commodities. Under all scenarios, price volatility in the forest sector would be smaller than that for the fossil fuel energy (i.e. oil and natural gas). Price volatilities from fossil fuel markets are positively influencing woody biomass price volatility and positively influencing pulp volatility. These results are discussed in the context of a case study describing investment alternatives for a district heating facility with options for: woody biomass, natural gas, or heating oil

Surgical techniques and return to work following carpal tunnel release: a systematic review and meta-analysis

<p><b>Introduction:</b> This systematic review was conducted to evaluate return to work (RTW) following minimally invasive carpal tunnel surgery versus open carpal tunnel release. This study also assesses how RTW as an outcome measure was examined in previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs).</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> The bibliographic databases Medline, AMED and CINAHL were systematically searched. We found 15 relevant RCTs. Meta-analysis was possible only for four studies.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> The result indicates that minimally invasive surgery offers earlier return to work compared to open carpal tunnel release (mean difference -7.2 days; 95% CI -10 to -4.4 days). There were remarkable inconsistencies in how return to work as an outcome measure was examined in different RCTs.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> Calculating standardised mean difference in future RCTs would allow future reviews to be more inclusive of the evidence. The authors suggest more consistent approach for evaluating work-related features in future studies. We recommend that new fit note categories introduced by UK Department of Work and Pension (unfit for all work/return to modified work or work adaptations/return to normal work) would be used to identify different levels of return to work.</p&gt

Estimating Mill Residue Surplus in Canada: A Spatial Forest Fiber Cascade Modeling Approach

The potential development of a Canadian forest-based bioeconomy requires an assessment of both fiber availability and associated marginal supply costs. To a large extent, the bioeconomy is expected to rely on wood fiber made available through primary products, sawnwood, and pulp production processing streams. Therefore, it is important to understand the regional wood fiber flows and mill residue availability through various processing streams. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit Forest Fiber Cascade Model (FCM) to estimate regional fiber flows and availability of untapped residue surplus. The FCM was calibrated to 2013 production levels, and we evaluated the wood fiber cascade through existing forest industry in Canada. The results show that, under current conditions, there is limited availability of surplus mill residues in Canada, especially in the Eastern provinces. It is therefore critical to consider the impacts on regional fiber flows and feedstock availability to the secondary industries when designing feedstock supply strategies and policies for the emerging forest-based industries

Local action on outdoor air pollution to improve public health.

OBJECTIVES: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, jointly with Public Health England, have developed a guideline on outdoor air pollution and its links to health. The guideline makes recommendations on local interventions that can help improve air quality and prevent a range of adverse health outcomes associated with road-traffic-related air pollution. METHODS: The guideline was based on a rigorous assessment of the scientific evidence by an independent advisory committee, with input from public health professionals and other professional groups. The process included systematics reviews of the literature, expert testimonies and stakeholder consultation. RESULTS: The guideline includes recommendations for local planning, clean air zones, measures to reduce emissions from public sector transport services, smooth driving and speed reduction, active travel, and awareness raising. CONCLUSIONS: The guideline recommends taking a number of actions in combination, because multiple interventions, each producing a small benefit, are likely to act cumulatively to produce significant change. These actions are likely to bring multiple public health benefits, in addition to air quality improvements