Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection

We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ \end{document} early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ \end{document} with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} $$\mathcal{R}_0$$ \end{document} , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise

Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

BACKGROUND: Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. METHODS: The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. RESULTS: The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns

Solar-Supplemented, Natural Air Drying of Shelled Corn: The Economic Limitations

It is not economically feasible to supplement natural air drying of high-moisture shelled corn by adding heat (solar and otherwise). In some cases, that drying method speeds product deterioration. A simulatiton analysis of the west central Great Plains determined that benefits from adding solar heat to batch-in-bin and layer~in-bin grain drying. methods failed to offset the solar heat installation costs and product deterioration losses. Findings also suggest that high-speed, high temperature drying is necessary to avoid field losses and to ensure marketable corn of high quality