1 research outputs found
Model-Based Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Hospitalization and Outcome in Germany, the Federal States and Districts
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenged many national health care
systems, with hospitals reaching capacity limits of intensive care units (ICU). Thus, the estimation of
acute local burden of ICUs is critical for appropriate management of health care resources. In this
work, we applied non-linear mixed effects modeling to develop an epidemiological SARS-CoV-2
infection model for Germany, with its 16 federal states and 400 districts, that describes infections as
well as COVID-19 inpatients, ICU patients with and without mechanical ventilation, recoveries, and
fatalities during the first two waves of the pandemic until April 2021. Based on model analyses, covariates influencing the relation between infections and outcomes were explored. Non-pharmaceutical
interventions imposed by governments were found to have a major impact on the spreading of
SARS-CoV-2. Patient age and sex, the spread of variant B.1.1.7, and the testing strategy (number of
tests performed weekly, rate of positive tests) affected the severity and outcome of recorded cases and
could reduce the observed unexplained variability between the states. Modeling could reasonably
link the discrepancies between fine-grained model simulations of the 400 German districts and the
reported number of available ICU beds to coarse-grained COVID-19 patient distribution patterns
within German regions