The macroeconomic conditions of EU-inspired employment policies

With its impulses and coordination initiatives the EU makes efforts to influence the employment and labour policies in its Member States. Here the principal instruments are the European Employment Strategy and its main constituent, the Employment Guidelines. The latter, while based on modern professional ideas about the institutional determinants of the labour market, have been incomplete up to 2005: due to departmentalism reflected in the tensions between the EU institutions responsible for employment and macro-policies crucial fields were kept out of the employment guidelines such as wage-setting policies, the wage bargaining system as well as the budgetary implications of active labour market policies. The macroeconomic support of the EU-inspired employment policies is theoretically not sound. An example of this is the objective of the Lisbon Process of simultaneous ambitions improvement of both macro-level productivity and employment. This target ignores the trade-off between these two factors prevailing even in the long term. The division and inconsistency between the philosophy and operation of various EU institutions is reflected in the moderate, but disturbing inconsistencies between the mid-term macroeconomic and employment strategies of the Hungarian government (the Convergence Programme and the National Action Plan for Employment). There are, however, possibilities for the member countries, including Hungary, to prepare and carry out employment policies in the EU framework that are supported by sound macro-policies: they have to be less slavish abiding by specific EU recommendations, have to take into account the domestic conditions realistically, and get rid of detrimental institutional divisions, at least in their indigenous administration.European integration, employment strategy, coordination of policies

Alternatív növekedési stratégiák és pályák az EU csatlakozás után: Vizsgálatok a csatlakozó országok központhoz való közeledésének illetve perifériára szorulásának esélyeiről a modern növekedési elméletek és a közgazdasági földrajz alapján = Alternative development strategies and growth paths after the EU accession: Investigations about the chances of the accession countries for approaching the growth centers or staying in peripheries based on modern growth theories and economic geography

A magyar gazdaság növekedését az elmúlt másfél évtizedben fokozódó mértékben a világgazdasági keretek és a regionális integráció erői határozzák meg. A folyamatosan változó feltételek új lehetőségeket nyitnak, ugyanakkor sokszor kiszámíthatatlan vagy irracionális kötöttségeket jelentenek a nemzetgazdaságok, így a magyar gazdaság számára. Ezek felismerése és tudatos átgondolása segít a gazdasági fejlődés alternatív pályáinak felvázolásában. Három témát vizsgáltunk: 1. Értelmeztük a gazdasági globalizáció fogalmát, s a főbb dimenziókban méréseket végeztünk az EU-tagországok, köztük Magyarország és jelentősebb feltörekvő gazdaságok nemzetközi integráltságára, az eredményeket értékeltük, s mérlegeltük a szakpolitika beavatkozási lehetőségeit. 2. Kritikai módon értékeltük az EU átfogó fejlesztési és reformstratégiáját, a lisszaboni folyamatot, s a legfontosabb koordinált európai politika, az Európai Foglalkoztatási Stratégia potenciális szerepét az összehangolt nemzeti fejlesztési stratégiában. 3. A szokásosnál dezaggregáltabb szektorális bontásban, növekedési elszámolási keretben azt vizsgáltuk, hogy mely főbb gazdasági szektoroknak tulajdonítható az elmaradottabb országok termelékenységi lemaradása a fejlettekhez képest. Azt kaptuk, hogy a lemaradás a kereskedelem tárgyát képező feldolgozóipari beruházási és fogyasztási javak előállítása területén a legnagyobb, míg a fogyasztási szolgáltatások illetve az építési tevékenység terén az elmaradás lényegesen kisebb. | In recent years, growth in the Hungarian economy has been determined increasingly by global developments as well as forces of regional integration. These changing conditions imply both new opportunities and incalculable or irrational constraints for the national economies. The identification and analysis of these opportunities and risks help in drawing up alternative paths of economic development. Three themes were studied: (1) We defined and analyzed the concept of economic globalization, and measured the extent of international integration of the EU members states (including Hungary) and major emerging economies in the main aspects of globalization. Results were evaluated, and various forms of policy interventions analyzed. (2) The comprehensive reform-strategy of the EU, the Lisbon Process was scrutinized, and the most important EU policy, the European Employment Strategy was analyzed from the point of view that what potential role it could play in a harmonized national development strategy. (3) In a development accounting framework and in a detailed sectoral disaggregation we investigated the question that which sectors are mainly responsible for the low aggregate total factor productivity of poor countries compared to that of the more advanced economies. The results showed that lagging behind by the by poor countries is due mostly to the production of tradable equipment and consumption goods, while it is much less due to the provision of services and construction

Az import liberalizálása Dél-Koreában

Indicators of economic development of South Korea reflect outstanding progress. In the past three decades different phases of development succeeded one after another. The essence of general Park Chong Chu’s strategy was export-directed industrialization and import substitution with high import duties and differentiated export subsidies. When the layer of private owners became strong, importing was made easier and a monetary reform was introduced. A hyperactive role of the government was allowed by unique institutions in Korea. From the beginning of the 1970-ies, a Central Project for Heavy Industry went on with increased import protection and state credits. In order to release tensions caused by an inflexible system of financing, the over-centralized system, already badly functioning with the stipulated rules, was made slightly more flexible, though still important limitations were kept in force. Liberalization seems to be more intense since only 1984

A fokozatos importliberalizálás megvalósításának feltételei, lehetősége és várható következményei a magyar gazdaságban

Further gradual import liberalization in Hungary necessitates a comprehensive strategy in which there is a role to play for regulation of foreign trade as well as for financial, price and industrial policy. It is to be reassessed what conditions are required for first a partial, then a gradually full liberalization of western imports to achieve success. The present general economic, institutional and management system in Hungary has a number of traits hindering the evolution of the beneficial effects of import liberalization. The long run strategy of import liberalization would have to incorporate, parallel to import liberalization, a list of institutional changes that would restrict the current demand for imported goods, introduce differentiated protectionism, and correct the domestic price level as well as the relative prices

A fokozatos importliberalizálás megvalósításának feltételei, lehetősége és várható következményei a magyar gazdaságban

Further gradual import liberalization in Hungary necessitates a comprehensive strategy in which there is a role to play for regulation of foreign trade as well as for financial, price and industrial policy. It is to be reassessed what conditions are required for first a partial, then a gradually full liberalization of western imports to achieve success. The present general economic, institutional and management system in Hungary has a number of traits hindering the evolution of the beneficial effects of import liberalization. The long run strategy of import liberalization would have to incorporate, parallel to import liberalization, a list of institutional changes that would restrict the current demand for imported goods, introduce differentiated protectionism, and correct the domestic price level as well as the relative prices

Hiány és támogatott fejlesztés: Tendenciák az építőanyag-ipar irányításának történetében (1950—1975)

The author discusses the interrelations between the shortages of building materials in Hungary and the way central control of the building materials industry is carried out. A survey of the history of the latter shows that the development of the industry by central planners was always closely related to the actual supply situation — considering the characteristics of the industry, in fact, too closely. The author illustrates the interrelations observed—both in a quantified form and in a graph— with the help of two indicators, the first showing the shortage and the second central efforts for development. The article then seeks to answer the following questions: What is the reason for the fact that, although central control always wanted to secure adequate supply for the long run, the equilibrium between the production of and the demand for building materials time and again became upset for longer periods. Why does it seem that the major development waves of the building materials industry were generated merely by actual supply problems, and not by a weighing up of the long-term development of demand? Frequent unexpected changes in demand are realities in this branch of industry; this is demonstrated by several examples. The control of the branch, as an integral part of the national economic planning system, relies on the strongly determinative role of the medium-term national plan and thus it assumes that the fluctuations in demand observed in the past will not occur in the future. In the course of a medium-term plan period there is only limited possibility for adaptation to sudden changes in demand, since the overwhelming part of the investment funds necessary for the expansion of capacities is allocated among the branches at the beginning of the period. Thus, the task of adaptation devolves on the medium term plans formulated every five years. Experience has shown that in most cases medium term planning was characterized by the acceptance, and mechanical projection of short-term tendencies. This planning and control system reckons in the short-term with a high safety —much higher than actually necessary—and thus, from among the various methods of adaptation to unexpected changes in demand, it gives an emphatic role to the expansion of fixed assets carried out in a centralized industrial organization. On the other hand, it does not pay sufficient attention to the application of flexibly changeable technologies that would help establishing reserve capacities

Hiány és támogatott fejlesztés: Tendenciák az építőanyag-ipar irányításának történetében (1950—1975)

The author discusses the interrelations between the shortages of building materials in Hungary and the way central control of the building materials industry is carried out. A survey of the history of the latter shows that the development of the industry by central planners was always closely related to the actual supply situation — considering the characteristics of the industry, in fact, too closely. The author illustrates the interrelations observed—both in a quantified form and in a graph— with the help of two indicators, the first showing the shortage and the second central efforts for development. The article then seeks to answer the following questions: What is the reason for the fact that, although central control always wanted to secure adequate supply for the long run, the equilibrium between the production of and the demand for building materials time and again became upset for longer periods. Why does it seem that the major development waves of the building materials industry were generated merely by actual supply problems, and not by a weighing up of the long-term development of demand? Frequent unexpected changes in demand are realities in this branch of industry; this is demonstrated by several examples. The control of the branch, as an integral part of the national economic planning system, relies on the strongly determinative role of the medium-term national plan and thus it assumes that the fluctuations in demand observed in the past will not occur in the future. In the course of a medium-term plan period there is only limited possibility for adaptation to sudden changes in demand, since the overwhelming part of the investment funds necessary for the expansion of capacities is allocated among the branches at the beginning of the period. Thus, the task of adaptation devolves on the medium term plans formulated every five years. Experience has shown that in most cases medium term planning was characterized by the acceptance, and mechanical projection of short-term tendencies. This planning and control system reckons in the short-term with a high safety —much higher than actually necessary—and thus, from among the various methods of adaptation to unexpected changes in demand, it gives an emphatic role to the expansion of fixed assets carried out in a centralized industrial organization. On the other hand, it does not pay sufficient attention to the application of flexibly changeable technologies that would help establishing reserve capacities

Az import liberalizálása Dél-Koreában

Indicators of economic development of South Korea reflect outstanding progress. In the past three decades different phases of development succeeded one after another. The essence of general Park Chong Chu’s strategy was export-directed industrialization and import substitution with high import duties and differentiated export subsidies. When the layer of private owners became strong, importing was made easier and a monetary reform was introduced. A hyperactive role of the government was allowed by unique institutions in Korea. From the beginning of the 1970-ies, a Central Project for Heavy Industry went on with increased import protection and state credits. In order to release tensions caused by an inflexible system of financing, the over-centralized system, already badly functioning with the stipulated rules, was made slightly more flexible, though still important limitations were kept in force. Liberalization seems to be more intense since only 1984

A külkereskedelem liberalizálása Indonéziában

The transformation of the Indonesian economy and building the basis of incomparably fast development started at the end of 60-ies. Moderate professional macro-level regulation, slow and gradual setup of market environment as well as an effective use of foreign support and advices were all typical to President Suharto's autocratic reign of almost three and a half decades. By now, it is clear that trade liberation had an important role in freeing the economy of Indonesia from the single-sided economic structure of oil exporting countries, and led to the diversification of its foreign trade at a rapid pace