Latent class analysis: an innovative approach for identification of clinical and laboratory markers of disease severity among COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify clinical and laboratory phenotype distribution patterns and their usefulness as prognostic markers in COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at Tygerberg Hospital, Cape Town. Methods and results: A latent class analysis (LCA) model was applied in a prospective, observational cohort study. Data from 343 COVID-19 patients were analysed. Two distinct phenotypes (1 and 2) were identified, comprising 68.46% and 31.54% of patients, respectively. The phenotype 2 patients were characterized by increased coagulopathy markers (D-dimer, median value 1.73 ng/L vs 0.94 ng/L; p < 0.001), end-organ dysfunction (creatinine, median value 79 µmol/L vs 69.5 µmol/L; p < 0.003), under-perfusion markers (lactate, median value 1.60 mmol/L vs 1.20 mmol/L; p < 0.001), abnormal cardiac function markers (median N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) 314 pg/ml vs 63.5 pg/ml; p < 0.001 and median high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin (Hs-TropT) 39 ng/L vs 12 ng/L; p < 0.001), and acute inflammatory syndrome (median neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio 15.08 vs 8.68; p < 0.001 and median monocyte value 0.68 × 109/L vs 0.45 × 109/L; p < 0.001). Conclusion: The identification of COVID-19 phenotypes and sub-phenotypes in ICU patients could help as a prognostic marker in the day-to-day management of COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU

Predicting COVID-19 outcomes from clinical and laboratory parameters in an intensive care facility during the second wave of the pandemic in South Africa

Background: The second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Africa was caused by the Beta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirurus-2. This study aimed to explore clinical and biochemical parameters that could predict outcome in patients with COVID-19. Methods: A prospective study was conducted between 5 November 2020 and 30 April 2021 among patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital. The Cox proportional hazards model in Stata 16 was used to assess risk factors associated with survival or death. Factors with P<0.05 were considered significant. Results: Patients who died were found to have significantly lower median pH (P<0.001), higher median arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (P<0.001), higher D-dimer levels (P=0.001), higher troponin T levels (P=0.001), higher N-terminal-prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide levels (P=0.007) and higher C-reactive protein levels (P=0.010) compared with patients who survived. Increased standard bicarbonate (HCO3std) was associated with lower risk of death (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.93–0.99). Conclusions: The mortality of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU was associated with elevated D-dimer and a low HCO3std level. Large studies are warranted to increase the identification of patients at risk of poor prognosis, and to improve the clinical approach

Bacterial infection, antibiotic use and COVID-19 : lessons from the intensive care unit

CITATION: Moolla, M. S. et al. 2021. Bacterial infection, antibiotic use and COVID-19 : lessons from the intensive care unit. South African Medical Journal, 111(6):575-581, doi:10.7196/SAMJ.2021.v111i6.15590.The original publication is available at http://www.samj.org.zaBackground. Empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics are frequently prescribed to patients with severe COVID-19, motivated by concern about bacterial coinfection. There is no evidence of benefit from such a strategy, while the dangers of inappropriate antibiotics are well described. Objectives. To investigate the frequency, profile and related outcomes of infections by bacterial pathogens in patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods. This was a prospective, descriptive study in a dedicated COVID-19 ICU in Cape Town, South Africa, involving all adult patients admitted to the ICU with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia between 26 March and 31 August 2020. We collected data on patient comorbidities, laboratory results, antibiotic treatment, duration of admission and in-hospital outcome. Results. We included 363 patients, who collectively had 1 199 blood cultures, 308 tracheal aspirates and 317 urine cultures performed. We found positive cultures for pathogens in 20 patients (5.5%) within the first 48 hours of ICU admission, while 73 additional patients (20.1%) had positive cultures later during their stay. The most frequently isolated pathogens at all sites were Acinetobacter baumannii (n=54), Klebsiella species (n=13) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (n=9). Length of ICU stay (p<0.001) and intubation (p<0.001) were associated with positive cultures on multivariate analysis. Disease severity (p=0.5), early antibiotic use (p=0.5), diabetes mellitus (p=0.1) and HIV (p=0.9) were not associated with positive cultures. Positive cultures, particularly for tracheal aspirates (p<0.05), were associated with longer ICU length of stay and mortality. Early empirical antibiotic use was not associated with mortality (odds ratio 2.5; 95% confidence interval 0.95 - 6.81). Conclusions. Bacterial coinfection was uncommon in patients at the time of admission to the ICU with severe COVID-19. Avoiding early empirical antibiotic therapy is therefore reasonable. Strategies to avoid coinfection and outbreaks in hospital, such as infection prevention and control, as well as the strict use of personal protective equipment, are important to improve outcomes.http://www.samj.org.za/index.php/samj/article/view/13272Publisher's versio