Come On Down: Investigating an Informational Strategy to Debias the Anchoring Heuristic

When individuals estimate the price of goods or services, irrelevant factors may affect the estimates. For example, irrelevant numbers in individuals’ environments can cause participants to “anchor” to them as starting point price estimates, such that estimates tend toward the anchor (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974; Chapman & Johnson, 1994). In fact, anchored individuals may pay up to three times as much for a product and buy 32% more products (Ariely, Loewenstein, & Prelec, 2003; Wansink, Kent, & Hoch, 1998). Because anchoring affects purchases large and small, this study investigates how to debias, or reduce the negative effects of, the anchoring heuristic. Debiasing strategies are not easily implemented outside the lab where anchoring has the largest real world effects (Strack & Mussweiler, 1997; Chapman & Johnson, 1994; George, Duffy, & Ahuja, 2000). We therefore investigated an easily implemented informational debiasing strategy offering little disruption to an individual’s daily routine. The debiasing had no effect on anchoring, but further investigation with a larger sample size and higher external validity is necessary before discounting the strategy completely

PRENATAL EXPOSURE TO ORGANOPHOSPHORUS PESTICIDES AND CHILDHOOD NEURODEVELOPMENTAL PHENOTYPES

Background: Neurodevelopmental traits are often treated as independent in etiological studies, although neurological functions exhibit complex correlational structures. Allowing traits to cluster into phenotypes may produce outcomes that are more clinically and biologically relevant. Additionally, environmental exposures often occur in a mixture. Accounting for such a possibility may reduce bias that results from assuming exposures are independent. We sought to estimate associations between organophosphorus pesticides and neurodevelopment after accounting for these possibilities. Methods: A prospective birth cohort of 404 mother/infant pairs were followed from pregnancy until the children were 6 and 7-9 years of age. Factor analysis was performed on parent-report measures of child executive functioning and behavior, and performance-based measures of IQ. We estimated associations between demographic characteristics, maternal characteristics and environmental exposures during pregnancy and early childhood, and the neurodevelopmental factor scores after accounting for correlations among the factors. Results: We determined the existence of a seven factor solution. Smoking during pregnancy, canned fish consumption, maternal education, and HOME environment were associated with various factors. Prenatal exposure to ∑DMPs was associated with worse Internalizing factor scores but better Executive Functioning factor scores, while ∑DEPs were associated with worse Working Memory Index scores. Estimates were generally stronger for factor scores than for individual instrument-specific items. Conclusions: Associations between prenatal exposure to OPs and worse internalizing behaviors and working memory scores are supported by prior findings in both human and animal studies. Associations with improved executive functioning are not supported by prior literature and may be a result of residual confounding by maternal executive functioning and dietary sources of OPs. A phenotypic outcome modeling approach may provide advantages over more traditional outcome modeling approaches.Doctor of Philosoph

Chronic antibiotic use during adulthood and weight change in the Sister Study

Background/Objectives: Antibiotic use in early life has been associated with weight gain in several populations. However, associations between chronic antibiotic use and weight among adults in the general population are unknown. Subjects/Methods: The NIEHS Sister Study is a longitudinal cohort of sisters of women with breast cancer. We examined associations between chronic antibiotic use (>= 3 months) during the fourth decade of life (30-39 years) and subsequent obesity at enrollment (mean age = 55) via logistic regression. We also examined associations between chronic antibiotic use in the 5 years and 12 months prior to enrollment and weight gain after enrollment in linear mixed models. Models were adjusted for race/ethnicity, education, urban/rural status, age, and smoking. Results: In adjusted analyses (n = 50,237), chronic penicillin use during the 4 th decade of life was associated with obesity at enrollment (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.40, 2.87), and use in the 5 years prior to enrollment was associated with increased BMI change after enrollment (beta 1.00 95% CI 0.01, 2.00). Use of bactericidals (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.29, 2.26) during the 4 th decade of life was also associated with obesity at enrollment. Associations for penicillins and bactericidals were consistent across indications for use. Bacteriostatic use in the 5 years prior to enrollment was associated with a reduction in BMI after enrollment (beta -0.52, 95% CI -1.04, 0.00), and tetracycline use during the 4 th decade of life was associated with reduced odds of obesity at enrollment (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56, 0.92). However, these inverse associations were only present for those who reported taking antibiotics for skin purposes. Cephalosporins, macrolides, quinolones, and sulfonamides were not associated with BMI change over time. Conclusions: Chronic use of antibiotics during adulthood may have long-lasting impacts on BMI. Associations may differ by antibiotic class, and confounding by indication may be important for some antibiotic classes.Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Sciences [Z01ES044005]; NIEHS [T32ES007018, K99ES028743]; NIHOpen access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Prenatal exposure to organophosphate pesticides and reciprocal social behavior in childhood

Prenatal exposure to organophosphate pesticides (OPs) has been associated with adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in childhood, including low IQ, Pervasive Developmental Disorder (PDD), attention problems and ADHD. Many of these disorders involve impairments in social functioning. Thus, we investigated the relationship between biomarkers of prenatal OP exposure and impaired reciprocal social behavior in childhood, as measured by the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS). Using a multi-ethnic urban prospective cohort of mother-infant pairs in New York City recruited between 1998 and 2002 (n=404) we examined the relation between third trimester maternal urinary levels of dialkylphosphate (ΣDAP) OP metabolites and SRS scores among 136 children who returned for the 7–9 year visit. Overall, there was no association between OPs and SRS scores, although in multivariate adjusted models, associations were heterogeneous by race and by sex. Among blacks, each 10-fold increase in total diethylphosphates (ΣDEP) was associated with poorer social responsiveness (β = 5.1 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8, 9.4). There was no association amongst whites or Hispanics, or for total ΣDAP or total dimethylphosphate (ΣDMP) biomarker levels. Additionally, stratum-specific models supported a stronger negative association among boys for ΣDEPs (β = 3.5 points, 95% CI 0.2, 6.8), with no notable association among girls. Our results support an association of prenatal OP exposure with deficits in social functioning among blacks and among boys, although this may be in part reflective of differences in exposure patterns

National Survey of Sensory Features in Children with ASD: Factor Structure of the Sensory Experience Questionnaire (3.0)

Abstract This national online survey study characterized sensory features in 1,307 children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) ages 2–12 years using the Sensory Experiences Questionnaire Version 3.0 (SEQ-3.0). Using the SEQ-3.0, a confirmatory factor analytic model with four substantive factors of hypothesized sensory response patterns (i.e., hyporesponsiveness; hyperresponsiveness; sensory interests, repetitions and seeking behaviors; enhanced perception), five method factors of sensory modalities (i.e., auditory, visual, tactile, gustatory/olfactory, vestibular/proprioceptive), and one of social context were tested with good model fit. Child and family characteristics associated with the sensory response patterns were explored. The effect of sensory response patterns on autism severity was tested, controlling for key child and family characteristics. The SEQ-3.0 demonstrates an empirically valid factor structure specific to ASD that considers sensory response patterns, modalities, and social context

Sensory subtypes in children with autism spectrum disorder: latent profile transition analysis using a national survey of sensory features

Sensory features are highly prevalent and heterogeneous among children with ASD. There is a need to identify homogenous groups of children with ASD based on sensory features (i.e., sensory subtypes) to inform research and treatment

Do you see what I see? Variation in detection, identification and enumeration of mammals during transect surveys

Effective monitoring, management and conservation of wildlife axiomatically depend on accurate data but causes of variation, including inter-observer variation, are rarely explicitly quantified. Here, under controlled conditions, we demonstrate considerable variation in detection, identification and enumeration of (theoretically) readily-identifiable African mammals at a reserve with a known species assemblage. Detection: 97.8% of sightings were missed by ≥1 observer; frequency of detection was affected by observer ID, detection distance, visibility, and animal group size. Identification: just 3/14 species were identified consistently at all sightings. Enumeration: lack of consensus for 60.5% of sightings; consensus likelihood was affected by visibility and group size

Protective glove use and hygiene habits modify the associations of specific pesticides with Parkinson's disease

Pesticides have been associated with Parkinson’s disease (PD), and protective gloves and workplace hygiene can reduce pesticide exposure. We assessed whether use of gloves and workplace hygiene modified associations between pesticides and PD. The Farming and Movement Evaluation (FAME) Study is a nested case-control study within the Agricultural Health Study. Use of protective gloves, other PPE, and hygiene practices were determined by questionnaire (69 cases and 237 controls were included). We considered interactions of gloves and hygiene with ever-use of pesticides for all pesticides with ≥ 5 exposed and unexposed cases and controls in each glove-use stratum (paraquat, permethrin, rotenone, and trifluralin). 61% of respondents consistently used protective gloves and 87% consistently used ≥ 2 hygiene practices. Protective glove use modified the associations of paraquat and permethrin with PD: neither pesticide was associated with PD among protective glove users, while both pesticides were associated with PD among non-users (paraquat OR 3.9 [95% CI 1.3, 11.7], interaction p=0.15; permethrin OR 4.3 [95% CI 1.2, 15.6] interaction p=0.05). Rotenone was associated with PD regardless of glove use. Trifluralin was associated with PD among people who used <2 hygiene practices (OR 5.5 [95% CI 1.1, 27.1]) but was not associated with PD among people who used 2 or more practices (interaction p=0.02). Although sample size was limited in the FAME study, protective glove use and hygiene practices appeared to be important modifiers of the association between pesticides and PD and may reduce risk of PD associated with certain pesticides