Policy and Projection Model for the Meat Sector in the People\u27s Republic of China

The ability of China to continue satisfying its food requirements is a question with important ramifications for U.S. agricultural exports. This report documents the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) model of China\u27s meat and egg sectors. The report begins with a brief description of China\u27s trade patterns followed by a discussion of the model structure and the important parameter assumptions. It summarizes the procedure used to project feed grain demands, and concludes with suggestions for future model development

The location of marginal production for value-added and intermediate goods: optimal policies and trade volumes

For many years the United States and other countries have used subsidies to promote exports of agricultural commodities. Although wheat exports have captured the largest share of U.S. subsidies in recent years, there has been a concerted effort in the United States to increase exports of high-value products (HVPs). To a large extent, economic analysis of export subsidies has focused on trade in final goods; however, thorough treatment of subsidized exports of HVPs must take into account the impact these policies have on markets for the intermediate inputs used to produce value-added goods;This dissertation seeks to provide both a theoretical and empirical analysis of subsidies that promote exports of value-added goods, paying close attention to their effects on pure intermediate product markets. A careful exposition of the theory of trade in intermediate goods is utilized to construct an empirical model for simulating the introduction of subsidies for U.S. broiler exports. The study is primarily concerned with the subsidy\u27s impact on the location of broiler production and on trade volumes for broilers, corn, and soy bean meal. In addition, optimal trade policies for value-added and intermediate goods are examined to identify the conditions under which an export subsidy for HVPs may be considered a rational policy;The simulation model is also employed to analyze the response in meat and feed grain markets to reductions in the cost of transporting meat and to fluctuations in the value of the real exchange rate. The simulation results indicate that exports of meat products increase much more rapidly than exports of feed grains following a depreciation of the exchange rate. This finding may be indicative of a more general conclusion that trade in value-added goods is more sensitive to exchange rate movements than trade in their underlying intermediate products

Got Milk? The Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector and Its Future Prospects

With the rapid growth in Chinaï¾’s dairy industry, a number of recent papers have addressed either the supply or the demand trends for dairy products in China. None, however, presents a systematic explanation for the recent growth in both the supply and demand for dairy products. The goal of this paper is to sketch a more comprehensive picture of Chinaï¾’s dairy sector and to assess the nature of the sectorï¾’s development in the coming decades. Drawing upon several empirical studies, we examine the trends in dairy product consumption to create a composite picture of the factors underlying the recent growth. We also empirically investigate the sources of production gains in milk supply and assess the relative importance of expanding herd size, changes in the nature of production, technological change, and improvements in efficiency to the overall growth of milk production.

Dietary Change in China’s Cities: Empirical Fact or Urban Legend?

Over the last two decades, urban Chinese consumers have dramatically increased their consumption of meat, other livestock products, and fruits and have decreased consumption of grainbased foods. China’s per capita grain consumption declined from 145 kilograms in 1981 to 78 kilograms in 2004 in urban areas, whereas the per capita consumption of meats, eggs, and aquatic products increased respectively from 20, 5, and 7 kilograms in 1981 to 29, 10, and 12 kilograms in 2004. As signifi cant changes in food consumption patterns in urban China are noted, it is natural to ask: Are consumer responses to price changes and income growth entirely responsible for the transformation in food consumption in urban China, or have consumers in urban China changed their preferences for foods? Our recent CARD study examined the empirical evidence for structural change in urban diets in China. The study’s fi ndings may be good news for U.S. food industries seeking entry into the Chinese market

CHINESE CONSUMER DEMAND FOR ANIMAL PRODUCTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. PORK AND POULTRY EXPORTS

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China's import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China's demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China's import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.Almost Ideal Demand System, China, Consumer demand, Demand elasticity, Food demand, Partial equilibrium model, Two-stage budgeting, U.S. meat export, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Feed-Grain Consumption by Traditional Pork-Producing Households in China

Economic reforms in China\u27s agricultural sector initiated in the late 1970s led to rapid structural change in China\u27s pork sector. Swine production units have declined in number but increased in size. Using household survey data from seven Chinese provinces, the authors estimate feed-grain demand by pork producers for three size categories: annual pork output of less than 200 kg; between 200 and 500 kg; and greater than 500 kg. Results indicate that households slaughtering a small number of pigs each year are less market-oriented than households slaughtering a greater number annually