Indeterminacy and forecastability

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation. This conversely implies that forecastability is higher in the preceding era, when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We offer an explanation for this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium indeterminacy in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. First, we analytically show that a model under indeterminacy exhibits richer dynamics that can improve forecastability. Then, using a prototypical New Keynesian model, we numerically demonstrate that indeterminacy due to passive monetary policy can yield superior forecastability as long as the degree of uncertainty about sunspot fluctuations is relatively small.Forecasting ; Mathematical models ; Monetary policy

Ataxia-Telangiectasia Mutated and the Mre11-Rad50-NBS1 Complex:Promising Targets for Radiosensitization

Radiotherapy plays a central part in cancer treatment, and use of radiosensitizing agents can greatly enhance this modality. Although studies have shown that several chemotherapeutic agents have the potential to increase the radiosensitivity of tumor cells, investigators have also studied a number of molecularly targeted agents as radiosensitizers in clinical trials based on reasonably promising preclinical data. Recent intense research into the DNA damage-signaling pathway revealed that ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) and the Mre11-Rad50-NBS1 (MRN) complex play central roles in DNA repair and cell cycle checkpoints and that these molecules are promising targets for radiosensitization. Researchers recently developed three ATM inhibitors (KU-55933, CGK733, and CP466722) and an MRN complex inhibitor (mirin) and showed that they have great potential as radiosensitizers of tumors in preclinical studies. Additionally, we showed that a telomerase-dependent oncolytic adenovirus that we developed (OBP-301 [telomelysin]) produces profound radiosensitizing effects by inhibiting the MRN complex via the adenoviral E1B55kDa protein. A recent Phase I trial in the United States determined that telomelysin was safe and well tolerated in humans, and this agent is about to be tested in combination with radiotherapy in a clinical trial based on intriguing preclinical data demonstrating that telomelysin and ionizing radiation can potentiate each other. In this review, we highlight the great potential of ATM and MRN complex inhibitors, including telomelysin, as radiosensitizing agents

Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We examine whether the news shocks, as explored in Beaudry and Portier (2004), can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations. For this purpose, we extend a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, a la Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), by allowing news shocks on the total factor productivity and estimate the model using Bayesian methods. Estimation results on the Japanese and U.S. economies show that (1) the news shocks play an important role in business cycles; (2) a news shock with a longer forecast horizon has larger effects on nominal variables; and (3) the overall effect of the total factor productivity on hours worked becomes ambiguous in the presence of news shocks.Demand for Money, Aggregation, Heterogeneity

A Study on single Crystals of Nylon 12

Single crystals of two crystatalline forms, α and γ, in nylon 12 were obtained from dilute solutions. The single crystals of γ-form from diols solutions are ribbon like lamellae in shape, and that of α-form obtained from solution in water-formic acid are parallelogramic. Electron diffraction study shows that chain packings in single crystals of two crystalline forms are very similar to those of nylon 6, respectivel

Crystallization of Polymers from Solution under ShearingStress III Polybutene-1

It was shown that the fibrous crystals of isotactic polybutene-l crystallized from solution under shearing stress are also composed of the central threads with an extended chain character and the epitaxally deposited lamellae with a folded chain character. The characteristic behaviors in this polymer exist in; (1) that the resulting crystals possess the hexagonal modification of form 1'; (2) that at low polymer concentrations the lamellar crystals with an orthorhombic modification of form Ⅲ are precipitated in similar fashion to the case in the absence of stirring; (3) that the morphology in surface replica of thick deposited film is very similar to that of melt extruded polyethylene film crystallized in a highly stressed state

Adenoviral targeting of malignant melanoma for fluorescence-guided surgery prevents recurrence in orthotopic nude-mouse models.

Malignant melanoma requires precise resection in order to avoid metastatic recurrence. We report here that the telomerase-dependent, green fluorescent protein (GFP)-containing adenovirus OBP-401 could label malignant melanoma with GFP in situ in orthotopic mouse models. OBP-401-based fluorescence-guided surgery (FGS) resulted in the complete resection of malignant melanoma in the orthotopic models, where conventional bright-light surgery (BLS) could not. High-dose administration of OBP-401 enabled FGS without residual cancer cells or recurrence, due to its dual effect of cancer-cell labeling with GFP and killing

Oriented Crystallization of Polyethylene at High Pressure from Flowed Melt

In the course of the study of polymer crystallization at high pressure, oriented crystallization of extended chain crystals of polyethylene were examined. Molten polyethylene were extruded into a die at a few hundred atm, and follwed by crystallization by high pressure application above 3000 atm. Resulting sample shows chain orientation to extruded direction. Thick lamella nearly a few thousand angstrom, which are typical feature of high pressure crystallization, were observed to be stacked parallel each other. In spite of favorable condition for crystals to grow to chain direction, remarkable growth to normal direction to them were also observed

Precise navigation surgery of tumours in the lung in mouse models enabled by in situ fluorescence labelling with a killer-reporter adenovirus.

BackgroundCurrent methods of image-guided surgery of tumours of the lung mostly rely on CT. A sensitive procedure of selective tumour fluorescence labelling would allow simple and high-resolution visualisation of the tumour for precise surgical navigation.MethodsHuman lung cancer cell lines H460 and A549 were genetically transformed to express red fluorescent protein (RFP). Tumours were grown subcutaneously for each cell line and harvested and minced for surgical orthotopic implantation on the left lung of nude mice. Tumour growth was measured by fluorescence imaging. After the tumours reached 5 mm in diameter, they were injected under fluorescence guidance with the telomerase-dependent green fluorescent protein (GFP)-containing adenovirus, OBP-401. Viral labelling of the lung tumours with GFP precisely colocalised with tumour RFP expression. Three days after administration of OBP-401, fluorescence-guided surgery (FGS) was performed.ResultsFGS of tumours in the lung was enabled by labelling with a telomerase-dependent adenovirus containing the GFP gene. Tumours in the lung were selectively and brightly labelled. FGS enabled complete lung tumour resection with no residual fluorescent tumour.ConclusionsFGS of tumours in the lung is feasible and more effective than bright-light surgery

Tumor-targeting adenovirus OBP-401 inhibits primary and metastatic tumor growth of triple-negative breast cancer in orthotopic nude-mouse models.

Our laboratory previously developed a highly-invasive, triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) variant using serial orthotopic implantation of the human MDA-MB-231 cell line in nude mice. The isolated variant was highly-invasive in the mammary gland and lymphatic channels and metastasized to lymph nodes in 10 of 12 mice compared to 2 of 12 of the parental cell line. In the present study, the tumor-selective telomerase dependent OBP-401 adenovirus was injected intratumorally (i.t.) (1 × 108 PFU) when the high-metastatic MDA-MB-231 primary tumor expressing red fluorescent protein (MDA-MB-231-RFP) reached approximately 500 mm3 (diameter; 10 mm). The mock-infected orthotopic primary tumor grew rapidly. After i.t. OBP-401 injection, the growth of the orthotopic tumors was arrested. Six weeks after implantation, the fluorescent area and fluorescence intensity showed no increase from the beginning of treatment. OBP-401 was then injected into high-metastatic MDA-MB-231-RFP primary orthotopic tumor growing in mice which already had developed metastasis within lymphatic ducts. All 7 of 7 control mice subsequently developed lymph node metastasis. In contrast, none of 7 mice which received OBP-401 had lymph node metastasis. Seven of 7 control mice also had gross lung metastasis. In contrast, none of the 7 mice which received OBP-401 had gross lung metastasis. Confocal laser microscopy imaging demonstrated that all control mice had diffuse lung metastases. In contrast, all 7 mice which received OBP-401 only had a few metastatic cells in the lung. OBP-401 treatment significantly extended survival of the treated mice