A Consistent Test for Multivariate Conditional Distributions

We propose a new test for a multivariate parametric conditional distribution of a vector of variables yt given a conditional vector xt. The proposed test is shown to have an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis, while being consistent for all fixed alternatives, and having non-trivial power against a sequence of local alternatives. Monte Carlo simulations show that our test has reasonable size and good power for both univariate and multivariate models, even for highly persistent dependent data with sample sizes often encountered in empirical finance.Econometric and statistical methods

Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach

In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system. Based on relevant but different measurements of systemic risk, we propose a set of market-based measures on the systemic importance of financial institutions, each designed to capture certain aspects of systemic risk. Multivariate extreme value theory approach is used to estimate these measures. Using six big Canadian banks as the proxy for Canadian banking sector, we apply these measures to identify systemically important banks in Canadian banking sector and major risk contributors from international financial institutions to Canadian banking sector. The empirical evidence reveals that (i) the top three banks, RBC Financial Group, TD Bank Financial Group, and Scotiabank are more systemically important than other banks, although with different order from different measures, while we also find that the size of a financial institution should not be considered as a proxy of systemic importance; (ii) compared to the European and Asian banks, the crashes of U.S. banks, on average, are the most damaging to the Canadian banking sector, while the risk contribution to the Canadian banking sector from Asian banks is quite lower than that from banks in U.S. and euro area; (iii) the risk contribution to the Canadian banking sector exhibits “ home bias ”, that is, cross-country risk contribution tends to be smaller than domestic risk contribution.Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies; Financial institutions; Econometric and statistical methods

Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity

This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold. Using the financial stress index developed by Illing and Liu (2006) as a measure of the Canadian financial stress conditions, the authors examine questions such as: Do contractionary and expansionary monetary policy shocks have symmetric effects? Do financial stress conditions play a role as a nonlinear propagator of monetary policy shocks? Does monetary policy have the same effect on the real economy in the low financial stress regime and in the high financial stress regime? Suppose that the economy is currently in a given financial stress regime, do monetary policy shocks have a substantial effect on the transition probability of moving from the given regime to the other? The empirical findings reveal that (i) contractionary monetary shocks typically have a larger effect on output than expansionary monetary shocks; (ii) the effects of large and small shocks are approximately proportional; (iii) expansionary monetary shocks have larger effects on output in the high financial stress regime than in the low financial stress regime; (iv) large expansionary monetary shocks increase the likelihood of moving to, or remaining in, the low financial stress regime; (v) typically, high financial stress regime has been characterized by weaker output growth, higher inflation, and higher interest rates.Financial stability; Monetary policy and uncertainty

Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity

The recent global crisis was characterized by a remarkable intensity in the negative feedback process between financial sector developments and the real economy. Exceptional measures were required to break this process, and the crisis stimulated interest in the relationship between financial sector developments, the real economy, and monetary policy. The authors examine this relationship by reviewing the relevant literature and then estimating a model with Canadian data. Both theoretical models and empirical findings point to the possibility of non-linear relationships between monetary policy, financial stress, and the real economy. The research indicates that when the economy can move into different regimes of financial stress, monetary policy can influence the likelihood of moving from one regime to another. It also implies that monetary policy actions have stronger effects when financial stress is high and that the tightening of monetary policy appears to have more powerful effects than easing.

Testing for Financial Contagion with Applications to the Canadian Banking System

The author proposes a new test for financial contagion based on a non-parametric measure of the cross-market correlation. The test does not depend on the assumption that the data are drawn from a given probability distribution; therefore, it allows for maximal flexibility in fitting into the data. Simulation studies show that the test has reasonable size and good power to detect financial contagion, and that Forbes and Rigobon's test (2002) is conservative, suggesting that their test tends not to find evidence of contagion when it does exist. The author's new test is applied to investigate contagion from a variety of recent financial crises to the Canadian banking system. Three empirical results are obtained. First, compared to recent financial crises, including the 1987 U.S. stock market crash, 1994 Mexican peso crisis, and 1997 East Asian crisis, the ongoing 2007 subprime crisis has been having more persistent and stronger contagion impacts on the Canadian banking system. Second, the October 1997 East Asian crisis induced contagion in Asian countries, and it quickly spread to Latin American and G-7 countries. The contagion from the East Asian crisis to the Canadian banking system was not as strong or as persistent as that of the ongoing subprime crisis. However, it had a stronger impact on emerging markets. Third, there is no evidence of contagion from the 1994 Mexican peso crisis to the Canadian banking system. Contagion from that crisis occurred in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile, but the contagion effects of that crisis were limited to the Latin American region.Financial stability; Central bank research; Econometric and statistical methods

Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process

A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function. The data are assumed to be sampled discretely in a time interval that can be fixed or lengthened to infinity. The test statistic is shown to follow an asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis that the parametric diffusion function is correctly specified. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of the test, revealing that the test has good size and power.Econometric and statistical methods; Interest rates

Pattern Division Multiple Access with Large-scale Antenna Array

In this paper, pattern division multiple access with large-scale antenna array (LSA-PDMA) is proposed as a novel non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) scheme. In the proposed scheme, pattern is designed in both beam domain and power domain in a joint manner. At the transmitter, pattern mapping utilizes power allocation to improve the system sum rate and beam allocation to enhance the access connectivity and realize the integration of LSA into multiple access spontaneously. At the receiver, hybrid detection of spatial filter (SF) and successive interference cancellation (SIC) is employed to separate the superposed multiple-domain signals. Furthermore, we formulate the sum rate maximization problem to obtain the optimal pattern mapping policy, and the optimization problem is proved to be convex through proper mathematical manipulations. Simulation results show that the proposed LSA-PDMA scheme achieves significant performance gain on system sum rate compared to both the orthogonal multiple access scheme and the power-domain NOMA scheme.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, this paper has been accepted by IEEE VTC 2017-Sprin