Process-Oriented Evaluation of Climate and Weather Forecasting Models

Realistic climate and weather prediction models are necessary to produce confidence in projections of future climate over many decades and predictions for days to seasons. These models must be physically justified and validated for multiple weather and climate processes. A key opportunity to accelerate model improvement is greater incorporation of process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) into standard packages that can be applied during the model development process, allowing the application of diagnostics to be repeatable across multiple model versions and used as a benchmark for model improvement. A POD characterizes a specific physical process or emergent behavior that is related to the ability to simulate an observed phenomenon. This paper describes the outcomes of activities by the Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF) under the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program to promote development of PODs and their application to climate and weather prediction models. MDTF and modeling center perspectives on the need for expanded process-oriented diagnosis of models are presented. Multiple PODs developed by the MDTF are summarized, and an open-source software framework developed by the MDTF to aid application of PODs to centers’ model development is presented in the context of other relevant community activities. The paper closes by discussing paths forward for the MDTF effort and for community process-oriented diagnosis

A Novel Radioisotope Microbattery Based on Betavoltaic Effect and Work Function

This paper reports a novel radioisotope microbattery structure that integrates a betavoltaic converter with a work function converter. The battery collects energy from radioisotope and environment vibration. A model is developed to simulate the mechanism of the proposed battery, and select parameters to improve its efficiency. Using the proposed model, the battery is designed with structures optimized for the environment vibration frequency in the range of 100-400Hz and 63 Ni of 11mCi. The theoretical output power is on the order of 200nW. The output power collected from the radioisotope is close to that from environment vibration. Since the vibration beam frequency of the work function converter is much larger than the environment frequency, the output power of the battery keeps stable when the environment frequency changes significantly

Analysis of Soil Moisture, Temperature, and Salinity in Cotton Field under Non-Mulched Drip Irrigation in South Xinjiang

The mulch film residues in cotton fields in south Xinjiang have caused serious harm to the soil environment and ecological security in the oasis areas. Non-mulched planting provides an alternative approach to this problem. In this experiment, irrigation was provided on the basis of the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0). Two layouts of drip tapes (1T4R—one tape for four rows; 2T4R—two tapes for four rows) were applied to the non-mulched, drip-irrigated cotton fields in south Xinjiang, and their impacts on soil water–heat–salt dynamic changes and the water consumption and yield of cotton were compared and analyzed. The experiment shows that the 2T4R layout provided an excellent soil water–salt environment for cotton growth and yield formation. Soil temperature decreased by 0.8 °C and drip irrigation belt input increased by CNY1200·hm−2. However, a higher profit derived from the 2T4R layout could compensate for the increased expenditure. The results show that cotton cultivation using non-mulched drip irrigation instead of mulched drip irrigation can potentially alleviate soil environmental and ecological security problems caused by plastic mulch residues in oasis areas. Although cotton yield was reduced by about 15%, water and nitrogen strategies and other field management could be adjusted to compensate for the disadvantages

Analysis of Soil Moisture, Temperature, and Salinity in Cotton Field under Non-Mulched Drip Irrigation in South Xinjiang

The mulch film residues in cotton fields in south Xinjiang have caused serious harm to the soil environment and ecological security in the oasis areas. Non-mulched planting provides an alternative approach to this problem. In this experiment, irrigation was provided on the basis of the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0). Two layouts of drip tapes (1T4R—one tape for four rows; 2T4R—two tapes for four rows) were applied to the non-mulched, drip-irrigated cotton fields in south Xinjiang, and their impacts on soil water–heat–salt dynamic changes and the water consumption and yield of cotton were compared and analyzed. The experiment shows that the 2T4R layout provided an excellent soil water–salt environment for cotton growth and yield formation. Soil temperature decreased by 0.8 °C and drip irrigation belt input increased by CNY1200·hm−2. However, a higher profit derived from the 2T4R layout could compensate for the increased expenditure. The results show that cotton cultivation using non-mulched drip irrigation instead of mulched drip irrigation can potentially alleviate soil environmental and ecological security problems caused by plastic mulch residues in oasis areas. Although cotton yield was reduced by about 15%, water and nitrogen strategies and other field management could be adjusted to compensate for the disadvantages

Bilayer Edge and Curvature Effects on Partitioning of Lipids by Tail Length: Atomistic Simulations

The partitioning of lipids among different microenvironments in a bilayer is of considerable relevance to characterization of composition variations in biomembranes. Atomistic simulation has been ill-suited to model equilibrated lipid mixtures because the time required for diffusive exchange of lipids among microenvironments exceeds typical submicrosecond molecular dynamics trajectories. A method to facilitate local composition fluctuations, using Monte Carlo mutations to change lipid structures within the semigrand-canonical ensemble (at a fixed difference in component chemical potentials, Δμ), was recently implemented to address this challenge. This technique was applied here to mixtures of dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine and a shorter-tail lipid, either symmetric (didecanoylphosphatidylcholine (DDPC)) or asymmetric (hexanoyl-myristoylphosphatidylcholine), arranged in two types of structure: bilayer ribbons and buckled bilayers. In ribbons, the shorter-tail component showed a clear enrichment at the highly curved rim, more so for hexanoyl-myristoylphosphatidylcholine than for DDPC. Results on buckled bilayers were variable. Overall, the DDPC content of buckled bilayers tended to exceed by several percent the DDPC content of flat ones simulated at the same Δμ, but only for mixtures with low overall DDPC content. Within the buckled bilayer structure, no correlation could be resolved between the sign or magnitude of the local curvature of a leaflet and the mean local lipid composition. Results are discussed in terms of packing constraints, surface area/volume ratios, and curvature elasticity

Community based promotion on VCT acceptance among rural migrants in Shanghai, China.

Voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) plays an important integral role in response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. However, VCT service has not been effectively utilized among rural migrants, a high risk group in China. In this study, we developed a community based intervention to examine if community mobilization with comprehensive VCT is more effective than current HIV preventions with routine VCT service in promoting VCT acceptability among rural migrants in Shanghai, China.A comprehensive intervention with community mobilization and comprehensive VCT services including community-based VCT and mobile VCT was implemented during 2007-2009. Three communities in Minhang District of Shanghai were randomly selected and were designed to receive community mobilization and comprehensive VCT, traditional VCT and none intervention, respectively. After 24 months intervention, effects were evaluated by comparing outcome indicators between the baseline (2,690 participants) and follow-up surveys (1,850 participants).A substantial increase in VCT acceptance was observed among community mobilization group (94.9% vs. 88.5%, P<0.001), whereas the reverse effect was seen in the traditional VCT group (86.1% vs. 94.6%, P<0.001) and control group (69.0% vs. 91.7%, P<0.001). Rural migrants from community mobilization group were more likely to accept VCT (OR = 2.91, 95% CI 1.69-4.97). Rural migrants from community mobilization group also showed significant increase in HIV/AIDS knowledge, positive attitude towards HIV positive individuals and condom use.Community mobilization with comprehensive VCT has significant impact on promotion of VCT acceptance and utilization among rural migrants in Shanghai. These findings provide evidence to support community mobilization as a suitable strategy for VCT promotion among rural migrants in Shanghai, China