The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?

New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is ruled out. While this appears to be a reasonable characterization of the US economy, it is less clear that the natural rate hypothesis necessarily holds in a European country like Germany where hysteretic effects may invalidate it. Inspired by the framework developed by Farmer (2000) and Beyer and Farmer (2002), we investigate the long-run relationships between the interest rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate co-integration analysis technique. The results point to a structural break in the late 1970s. In the later time period we find for West German data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding contradicts the natural rate hypothesis, introduce a version of the New Keynesian model which allows for some hysteresis and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy in these two models. In general, a policy rule with an aggressive response to a rise in unemployment performs better in a model with hysteretic characteristics than in a model without.Cointegration; Vector error correction model; Unemployment; Phillips curve; Hysteresis

Perceived Inflation under Loss Aversion

Building on Prospect Theory, we apply the concept of loss aversion to the formation of inflation perceptions and test empirically for non- linearities in the inflation-perceptions relation for a panel of 10 Euro area countries. Specifically, under the assumption of loss aversion, inflation changes above a certain reference rate will be perceived more strongly. Rejecting rationality of inflation perceptions in general under symmetric loss and in a majority of cases under flexible loss functions, panel smooth transition models give evidence of non-linearities in the inflation perception formation regarding both actual inflation and time. This result is confirmed by dynamic fixed effects estimates, where the slope of the estimated value function is significantly steeper in the loss region and the implied average reference inflation rate is found close to 2%.Inflation Perceptions, Loss Aversion, Panel Smooth Tran- sition Models, Dynamic Panel.

Macroeconomic Policy under Uncertainty and Inequality

Diese Arbeit umfasst drei Kapitel zur Debatte über makroökonomische Politik unter Unsicherheit und Ungleichheit. Das erste Kapitel zeigt auf, dass ein geringes Maß an Unsicherheit mit einer effektiveren Ausgabenpolitik einhergeht, und dass fiskalpolitische Ausgaben grundsätzlich ein wirksames Instrument zur Stabilisierung von Konjunkturzyklen sind. Das zweite Kapitel liefert Belege dafür, dass der regelbasierte Politikansatz der EZB den geldpolitischen Stress - d.h. identifizierte geldpolitische Unsicherheit - im Euroraum verringert hat. Dies hat dazu beigetragen, dass sich der Euro zu einer globalen Leitwährung entwickelt hat. Ein Verzicht auf den Euro würde für jedes der Euroländer wahrscheinlich zu einer Situation führen, in der die heimische Wirtschaft mit den nachteiligen Auswirkungen anderer weltweit dominierender Währungen konfrontiert wäre. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht, wie sich Geldpolitik auf die Verteilung zwischen Einkommen aus Arbeit und Kapital auswirkt, und wie Heterogenität zwischen Unternehmen die geldpolitische Transmission beeinflussen kann. Insgesamt unterstreichen die Ergebnisse die entscheidende Rolle von Unsicherheit im Transmissionsmechanismus von Fiskalpolitik, sie leisten einen Beitrag zur öffentlichen Debatte zur Euroskepsis und zeigen, dass Ungleichheit zwischen Mitgliedsstaaten eine Folge von Unternehmensheterogenität sein kann. Auf der Grundlage der Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit erscheint eine tiefere Integration der Eurozone - d.h. ein europäisches Finanzministerium mit dem Recht eigene Schulden aufzunehmen, eine Vereinheitlichung des europäischen Arbeitsrechts sowie die Vervollständigung der Banken und Kapitalmarktunion – als ratsam.This thesis includes three chapters that inform the debate about macroeconomic policy under uncertainty and inequality. The first chapter shows how low levels of uncertainty are associated with more effective fiscal policy. The second chapter provides evidence for the rule-based policy approach of the ECB reducing monetary policy stress – i.e., identified monetary policy uncertainty – in the euro area. This has contributed to the euro becoming a globally dominant currency. Giving up the euro would, for any country, likely result in a situation where the domestic economy would face the adverse effects of globally dominating currencies. The third chapter investigates how monetary policy affects the redistribution of income between employees and owners of companies, and how heterogeneity across firms affects monetary policy transmission at country level. Overall, the results highlight the important role of uncertainty in shaping the fiscal policy transmission mechanism, they contribute to the public debate of euro-skepticism, and they show that between-country inequality can be a result of firm-heterogeneity. Based on the findings of this thesis, a deeper integration of the euro area – i.e. a European fiscal union, joint debt issuance, unified labor rights as well as a completed capital markets and banking union - seem advisable

Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment

Building on the hypotheses of loss aversion with respect to price increases and availability of frequently bought goods, Brachinger (2006,2008) constructs an alternative index of perceived inflation (IPI), which can reproduce the jump in the measure for perceived inflation after the Euro introduction in Germany that was not observable in standard HICP inflation. We test the hypotheses of Prospect Theory with regard to households’ inflation perceptions underlying Brachinger’s IPI in a panel estimation for 12 European countries. There is evidence that perceptions react more strongly to ‘losses’ in inflation than to ‘gains’ before the Euro cash changeover, but not afterwards. Moreover, we find empirical support for the availability hypothesis, stating that frequently bought goods have a stronger influence on inflation perceptions than the overall price index.Inflation Perceptions, Prospect Theory, Dynamic Panel

The New Keynesian Model and the Long-run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does it hold for Germany?

New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is ruled out. While this appears to be a reasonable characterization of the US economy, it is less clear that the natural rate hypothesis necessarily holds in a European country like Germany where hysteretic effects may invalidate it. Inspired by the framework developed by Farmer (2000) and Beyer and Farmer (2002), we investigate the long-run relationships between the interest rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate co-integration analysis technique. The results point to a structural break in the late 1970s. In the later time period we find for west Germany data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding contradicts the natural rate hypothesis, introduce a version of the New Keynesian model which allows for some hysteresis and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy in these two models. In general, a policy rule with an aggressive response to a rise in unemployment performs better in a model with hysteretic characteristics than in a model without

The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?

New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is ruled out. While this appears to be a reasonable characterization of the US economy, it is less clear that the natural rate hypothesis necessarily holds in a European country like Germany where hysteretic effects may invalidate it. Inspired by the framework developed by Farmer (2000) and Beyer and Farmer (2002), we investigate the long-run relationships between the interest rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate cointegration analysis technique. The results point to a structural break in the late 1970s. In the later time period we find for West German data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding contradicts the natural rate hypothesis, introduce a version of the New Keynesian model which allows for some hysteresis and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy in these two models. In general, a policy rule with an aggressive response to a rise in unemployment performs better in a model with hysteretic characteristics than in a model without

Forecasting the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso: Asymmetric Loss, Forecast Rationality, and Forecaster Herding

Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some forecasters seem to forecasts under an asymmetric loss function, symmetry of the loss function cannot be rejected for other forecasters. An asymmetric loss function does not necessarily make survey data of exchange-rate forecasts look rational, and the loss function seems to depend not only on the forecast error.Exchange rate, Forecasting, Loss function

Perceived Inflation under Loss Aversion

Building on Prospect Theory, we apply the concept of loss aversion to the formation of inflation perceptions and test empirically for non- linearities in the inflation-perceptions relation for a panel of 10 Euro area countries. Specifically, under the assumption of loss aversion, inflation changes above a certain reference rate will be perceived more strongly. Rejecting rationality of inflation perceptions in general under symmetric loss and in a majority of cases under flexible loss functions, panel smooth transition models give evidence of non-linearities in the inflation perception formation regarding both actual inflation and time. This result is confirmed by dynamic fixed effects estimates, where the slope of the estimated value function is significantly steeper in the loss region and the implied average reference inflation rate is found close to 2%

Forecasting the Brazilian Real and the Mexican Peso: Asymmetric Loss, Forecast Rationality, and Forecaster Herding

Using forecasts of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, we analyze the shape of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. We find a substantial degree of cross-sectional heterogeneity with respect to the shape of the loss function. While some forecasters seem to forecasts under an asymmetric loss function, symmetry of the loss function cannot be rejected for other forecasters. An asymmetric loss function does not necessarily make survey data of exchange-rate forecasts look rational, and the loss function seems to depend not only on the forecast error

Forecasting the Euro: Do Forecasters Have an Asymmetric Loss Function?

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125,2005), we analyzed whether the loss function of a sample of exchange rate forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Using forecasts of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we found that the shape of the loss function varies across forecasters. Our empirical results suggest that it is important to account for the heterogeneity of exchange rate forecasts at the microeconomic level of individual forecasters when one seeks to analyze whether forecasters form exchange rate forecasts under an asymmetric loss function