Money supply, budget deficit and inflation dynamics in Ghana: An empirical investigation

The paper investigates the long run dynamics of money supply, budget deficit and inflation in Ghana. It also tests the validity of the classical, monetary and fiscal theories of price level within the vector error correction framework. Using quarterly data from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4, the paper employs Granger causality test and the vector error correction model (VECM) for the analysis. The results from the VECM show that budget deficit has a significant positive effect on inflation while money supply negatively affect it. By contrast, inflation exerts a positive and negative effect on budget deficit and money supply, respectively. The results from the impulse response function also indicate that inflation responds more positively to budget deficit shocks. However, it tends to respond negatively to money supply (M2) shocks. Also, budget deficit responds positively (negatively) to inflation (money supply [M2]) shocks. Furthermore, money supply responds positively (negatively) to budget deficit (inflation) shocks. Based on the weak exogeneity test, the result favours the fiscal theory of the price level in explaining the nexus between money supply, budget deficit and inflation in Ghana. A corollary of our results is that a reduction in government expenditure coupled with restrictive bureaucratic nature of government officials have the tendency of ensuring favourable and stable inflation in Ghana

Population Health and Economic Growth: Panel Cointegration Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa

The economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa has been unimpressive, particularly in comparison with other developing regions like East Asia. Using a panel data for 30 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1970-2010, this study investigates the extent to which the health of the population affects the economic performance in the region. Employing the theoretical model based on an augmented Solow growth model; we estimate the relationship between population health capital and economic growth in SSA using the newly developed panel cointegration econometric strategy. We find that, health status of the population has not significantly driven economic performance. Accounting for the effect of HIV/AIDS, however resulted in a significant negative effect of population health on economic growth. We find further that, the obverse seems rather plausibly the case, as economic growth significantly increases life expectancy in the region. The results suggest that, other factors affecting growth in the region would indirectly improve on the health status of the population of SSA

A decomposition analysis of microcredit welfare gaps in Ghana. A gender analysis

The literature is replete with studies suggesting that the microcredit market is expanding with varying degrees of impact on male and female clients. The paper investigates the extent to which differences in loan use behaviour and loan amount received contribute to differences in microcredit welfare impact among male and female clients. Using the sixth (2012/2013) and seventh (2016/2017) rounds of the Ghana Living Standards Survey, and applying the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique with the two-staged recentred influence functions, we find that the welfare disparity in microcredit delivery is due to a lower inequality and poverty rate among female clients relative to their male counterparts. Additionally, we find that gender welfare gaps in microcredit delivery are powered extensively by differences in the size of loans received and the loan use behaviour of clients. The findings lend support for policy reassessment on gender in the provision of credit; to improve portfolio quality and reinforce the returns of microcredit access among clients