The non-parametric identification of lagged duration dependence

In this paper, I consider the identification of lagged durationdependence in multiple spells without using the assumtion that there are additionalregressors orthogonal to the individual effects. The non-parametricidentification strategy is applied to the multiple non-employment spells of 2066 newentrants. The estimated lagged duration dependence function rises for the first 4months and thereafter decreases, suggesting negative effects of non-employmentfor long periods of non-employment

Estimating The Causal Effect of Income on Health: Evidence from Post Reunification East Germany

In this paper we investigate if there was a causal effect of changes in current and 'permanent' income on the health of East Germans in the years following reunification. Reunification was completely unanticipated and therefore can be seen as a providing some exogenous variation, which resulted in a substantial increase in average household incomes for East Germans. Our data source is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) between 1991 and 1999, and we fit both random and fixed-effects estimators to our ordinal health measures. Whilst the exogeneity of reunification allows us to establish the causality between income and health, the fixed-effects methodology additionally enables us to control for individual unobservable heterogeneity such as parental background and general attitudes to health. We also provide new evidence on how major life-events impact on health, and we pay close attention to the issue of panel attrition, given that there might be endogenous exits from the panel if the unhealthy are more likely to drop out of the sample. Using cross-sectional variations in income and health we find evidence of a significant positive effect of current income on health. However, after controlling for heterogeneity and using a new decomposition of the fixed-effects estimates, we find no evidence that increased income leads to improved health. This is the case with respect to current income and a measure of 'permanent' income and two alternative definitions of health. We also find no evidence of an effect of regional income on health.Income, Health, German Reunification, Panel Data, Attrition

The pre-commitment advantage of having a slow legislative systeem

In this paper it is argued that the slowness of the legislativesystem implies pre-commitment of legislation for at least the periodit takes to change a law. A simple model illustrates the benefit ofthis pre-commitment

The Value of Reunification in Germany: An Analysis of Changes in Life Satisfaction

Recent years have seen a considerable increase in the number of economists researching the role of income, employment status and other demographic characteristics in determining individual life satisfaction or happiness. In this paper we investigate how life satisfaction is affected by a large exogenous shock, namely, reunification for East Germans. In particular, we identify the effects of the substantial increase in real household income and increased unemployment. We implement a new fixed-effect estimator for ordinal life satisfaction in the German Socio-Economic Panel and develop a decomposition approach that accounts for new entrants and panel attrition. We find that average life satisfaction in East Germany increased by around 20% in the years following reunification, leading to a clear convergence with West Germany. Importantly, increased real household incomes in East Germany accounted for around 35-40% of this increase.life satisfaction, German reunification, random and fixed-effects panel models, causal decomposition

The Value of Reunification in Germany: An Analysis of Changes in Life Satisfaction

We quantify the value of changes in life circumstances in Germany following reunification. To this end, we develop and implement a fixed-effect estimator for ordinal life satisfaction in the German Socio-Economic Panel. We find strong negative effects on life satisfaction from being recently fired, losing a spouse through either death or separation and time spent in hospital, whilst we find strong positive effects from income and marriage. Using a new casual decomposition technique, we find that East Germans experienced a continued improvement in life satisfaction after 1990 to which increased household incomes contributed around 12%. Most of the increase is explained by improved average circumstances, such as public services. For West Germans, we find virtually no change in satisfaction between 1991 and 1999.Life satisfaction, German Reunification, Random and Fixed-Effects Panel Models, Causal Decomposition

The happiness of European Muslims post-9/11

We examine the happiness trajectory of Muslims living in European countries following the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001, using six rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS). We find a decline, and then a subsequent return to average happiness among the general Muslim migrant population relative to others after 9/11. However, a small subgroup of Muslims, young male Muslim immigrants from Middle East, report a persistent low level of subjective well-being. This may be seen as a potential source of a threat on integration of Muslims and hence social cohesion and peace in European countries. Our findings persist after controlling for perceived discrimination, migrant status, and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as fixed effects for year and country of residence

The Anatomy of Subjective Well-Being

Subjective Well-Being has increasingly been studied by several economists. This paper fits in that literature but takes into account that there are different aspects of life such as health, financial situation, and job. We call them domains. In this paper, we consider Subjective Well-Being as a composite of various domain satisfactions (DS). We postulate a two -layer model where individual Subjective Well-Being is explained by individual subjective domain satisfactions with respect to job, finance, health, leisure, housing, and environment. We distinguish between long -term and short - term effects. Next, we explain domain satisfactions and Subjective Well-Being by objectively measurable variables such as income. We estimate a model for the GS and DS equations with individual random effects and fix time effects.Subjective Well-Being, satisfaction measurement, qualitative regressors, health satisfaction, job satisfaction

Individual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification

In this paper we test the Rational Expectations hypothesis using longitudinal data on expectations and realizations of individual welfare for East Germans in the years following reunification. German reunification was unexpected and delivered a large shock to the future prospects of the inhabitants of the former East Germany. We therefore take it as a 'natural' experiment through which to study the rationality of expectations. Our results show that East Germans significantly over-estimated the welfare gains immediately following reunification. The prediction error was largest for the young, the poorly educated and those with children. However, expectations and realizations of life satisfaction in East Germany had converged by 1995, at a level considerably below that of West Germans. We hence conclude that expectations were close to rational after the dust of reunification had settled, but that expectations are not likely to be rational in times of great transition or volatility

Socio-economic status, health shocks, life satisfaction and mortality: evidence from an increasing mixed proportional hazard model

The socio-economic gradient in health remains a controversial topic in economics and other social sciences. In this paper we develop a new duration model that allows for unobserved persistent individual-specific health shocks and provides new evidence on the roles of socio-economic characteristics in determining length of life using 19-years of high-quality panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. We also contribute to the rapidly growing literature on life satisfaction by testing if more satisfied people live longer. Our results clearly confirm the importance of income, education and marriage as important factors in determining longevity. For example, a one-log point increase in real household monthly income leads to a 12% decline in the probability of death. We find a large role of unobserved health shocks, with 5-years of shocks explaining the same amount of the variation in length of life as all the other observed individual and socioeconomic characteristics (with the exception of age) combined. Individuals with a high level of life satisfaction when initially interviewed live significantly longer, but this effect is completely due to the fact that less satisfied individuals are typically less healthy. We are also able to confirm the findings of previous studies that self-assessed health status has significant explanatory power in predicting future mortality and is therefore a useful measure of morbidity. Finally, we suggest that the duration model developed in this paper is a useful tool when analysing a wide-range of single-spell durations where individualspecific shocks are likely to be important