Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable forecasts in the presence of outliers, non-linearity, and heteroscedasticity. In the absence of outliers, the forecasts are only slightly less precise than those based on a localized Least Squares estimator. An additional advantage of the MM-estimator is that it provides a robust estimate of the local variability of the time series.Heteroscedasticity;Non-parametric regression;Prediction;Outliers;Robustness

Bold Leader or Bully? Interpreting Chinese Regional Maritime Behavior

Since 2009, tensions have increased markedly between China and its maritime neighbors over disputed territories in the East and South China Seas. China’s neighbors accuse it of acting like a bully, alleging that China engages in behavior that is aggressive, inappropriate, and oppressive. But can such accusations be substantiated through objective analysis, or is bullying truly in the eye of the beholder? Further, is China simply acting boldly, albeit in a manner that is justifiable, as it emerges as a leader in the region? The purpose of this thesis was to determine whether labeling China’s behavior as “bullying” (as China’s smaller and less powerful neighbors view it) is accurate, and whether any definitive conclusions can be drawn concerning the assertive nature of China’s conduct. Moreover, given how China’s neighbors perceive Chinese maritime policy, this thesis examined how the stability of East Asia might be impacted by smaller states’ perceptions. A two-tiered methodological approach was employed that includes examining specific instances of conflict between China and its neighbors, and a content and trend analysis of regional media reporting on the disputed claims issue. Ultimately, the ongoing territorial disputes between China and its maritime neighbors were used as a case environment for exploring how smaller states perceive and react to the actions of great and/or aspiring powers. The case demonstrates that small states sometimes perceive themselves to be victims of great power behavior, whether or not such perceptions are accurate, and that the friction between great power conduct and small state perceptions can contribute to instability that endangers an entire region

Managerial Power and Rent Extraction in the Design of Executive Compensation

This paper develops an account of the role and significance of managerial power and rent extraction in executive compensation. Under the optimal contracting approach to executive compensation, which has dominated academic re-search on the subject, pay arrangements are set by a board of directors that aims to maximize shareholder value. In contrast, the managerial power approach suggests that boards do not operate at arm's length in devising executive compensation arrangements; rather, executives have power to influence their own pay, and they use that power to extract rents. Furthermore, the desire to camouflage rent extraction might lead to the use of inefficient pay arrangements that provide suboptimal incentives and thereby hurt shareholder value. The authors show that the processes that produce compensation arrangements, and the various market forces and constraints that act on these processes, leave managers with considerable power to shape their own pay arrangements. Examining the large body of empirical work on executive compensation, the authors show that managerial power and the desire to camouflage rents can explain significant features of the executive compensation landscape, including ones that have long been viewed as puzzling or problematic from the optimal contracting perspective. The authors conclude that the role managerial power plays in the design of executive compensation is significant and should be taken into account in any examination of executive pay arrangements or of corporate governance generally.

Executive Compensation in America: Optimal Contracting or Extraction of Rents?

This paper develops an account of the role and significance of rent extraction in executive compensation. Under the optimal contracting view of executive compensation, which has dominated academic research on the subject, pay arrangements are set by a board of directors that aims to maximize shareholder value by designing an optimal principal-agent contract. Under the alternative rent extraction view that we examine, the board does not operate at arm's length; rather, executives have power to influence their own compensation, and they use their power to extract rents. As a result, executives are paid more than is optimal for shareholders and, to camouflage the extraction of rents, executive compensation might be structured sub-optimally. The presence of rent extraction, we argue, is consistent both with the processes that produce compensation schemes and with the market forces and constraints that companies face. Examining the large body of empirical work on executive compensation, we show that the picture emerging from it is largely compatible with the rent extraction view. Indeed, rent extraction, and the desire to camouflage it, can better explain many puzzling features of compensation patterns and practices. We conclude that extraction of rents might well play a significant role in U.S. executive compensation; and that the significant presence of rent extraction should be taken into account in any examination of the practice and regulation of corporate governance.

Disciplining Sexual Harassers in the Unionized Workplace: Judicial Precedent is Influencing Arbitrator Attitudes, Awards

Before deciding whether an employer has appropriately disciplined an employee accused of sexual harassment, many labor arbitrators draft their rulings with the employer\u27s legal obligations in mind. When an employee\u27s conduct rises to the level of unlawful sexual harassment or violates an employer\u27s sexual harassment policy, arbitrators often uphold or minimally reduce harsh discipline. If, however, the grievant\u27s conduct is less egregious, arbitrators have less tolerance for severe disciplinary measures. But before reinstating a discharged employee who was accused of sexual harassment, or otherwise reducing that employee\u27s discipline, arbitrators consider whether the employer had a sexual harassment policy in place, what training the grievant received on harassment, and what message a lighter punishment would send to other employees in the workplace

Disciplining Sexual Harassers in the Unionized Workplace: Judicial Precedent Is Influencing Arbitrator Attitudes, Awards

Before deciding whether an employer has appropriately disciplined an employee accused of sexual harassment, many labor arbitrators draft their rulings with the employer\u27s legal obligations in mind. When an employee\u27s conduct rises to the level of unlawful sexual harassment or violates an employer\u27s sexual harassment policy, arbitrators often uphold or minimally reduce harsh discipline. If, however, the grievant\u27s conduct is less egregious, arbitrators have less tolerance for severe disciplinary measures. But before reinstating a discharged employee who was accused of sexual harassment, or otherwise reducing that employee\u27s discipline, arbitrators consider whether the employer had a sexual harassment policy in place, what training the grievant received on harassment, and what message a lighter punishment would send to other employees in the workplace

Image Processing: How the Retina Detects the Direction of Image Motion

In the retina, the beautifully symmetrical ‘starburst’ amacrine cells interact with each other in a way that creates asymmetrical responses to moving images at their dendritic tips. This computation, occurring in a retinal interneuron, is a foundation of the directional signals transmitted by the retina to the brain

Surface disorder production during plasma immersion implantation and high energy ion implantation

High-depth-resolution Rutherford Backscattering Spectrometry (RBS) combined with channeling technique was used to analyze the surface layer formed during plasma immersion ion implantation (PIII) of single crystal silicon substrates. Single wavelength multiple angle of incidence ellipsometry (MAIE) was applied to estimate the thickness of the surface layer. The thickness of the disordered layer is much higher than the projected range of P ions and it is comparable with that of protons.\ud \ud Another example of surface damage investigation is the analysis of anomalous surface disorder created by 900 keV and 1.4 MeV Xe implantation in 100 silicon. For the 900 keV implants the surface damage was also characterized with spectroellipsometry (SE). Evaluation of ellipsometric data yields thickness values for surface damage that are in reasonable agreement with those obtained by RBS