Rural revival? The rise in internal migration to rural areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. Who moved and where?

During the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, anecdotal evidence of a “rural revival” emerged mirroring the “urban exodus” hypothesis. Currently, we know that internal migration to rural areas increased in some countries during 2020, although not with the intensity speculated by the media. However, little is known about the attributes of rural areas attracting migrants and demographic composition of migration inflows. Drawing on administrative population register data, we analysed the main types of rural areas pulling internal migrants in Spain and their demographic characteristics, namely age, sex and place of birth. Our results show that in-migration increased in rural areas close to cities and with high prevalence of second homes. Inflows to rural areas comprised migrants across a wide age spectrum, from young adults and families to retired individuals. These flows also comprised foreign-born populations from high socio-economic background, particularly Latin Americans and individuals from high-income countries. Our findings suggest unequal impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the conterurbanisation process, triggering population movements among high-socioeconomic groups from cities to rural area

The Migration Policy Simulation: Engaging stakeholders in Austria’s migration future by linking an agent-based model with a policy exercise

This report fulfils the ABM2Policy project Deliverable 2.2: A scientific report describing the protocol and outcomes of the migration-focused gamification exercise and the usefulness of an agent-based model for policy assessment. The goals guiding the research of the ABM2Policy project are twofold: i) to advance macroeconomic agent-based model (ABM) methodology for a realistic and verifiable analysis of migration as an external economic shock to the Austrian national economy, and ii) to explore the usefulness of an ABM combined with a gamified user-interface to support the Austrian migration policymaking discussions and to enhance stakeholder engagement. This Deliverable reports on the second project goal. The ABM was ‘gamified’ by developing a model-based policy exercise (PE) in the complex policy setting of climate migration to Austria. The results of the simulations of a macroeconomic ABM informed (role-playing) stakeholder deliberations, and in some instances, consensus emerged on complex climate migration policy issues. The PE brought to the fore the diverse and often conflicting viewpoints regarding migration through a process of discussion and negotiation, which in turn helped the participants understand the complexities of migration issues in the Austrian context. Overall, the PE participants assessed the game to be an effective tool for gaining knowledge and understanding of the policy process on environmental migration. The preliminary trials show promise in combining an ABM with a PE to support stakeholder deliberations on the migration policy process. The next step is to conduct a similar policy exercise with relevant Austrian stakeholders, e.g., political party members and public officials, to inform actual policy processes