The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]

In these excerpts from a presentation to a conference in Toronto, Deputy Governor Charles Freedman analyses the way in which the monetary conditions index (MCI) enters into the Bank's thinking and actions. He describes how the Bank works in the context of a forward-looking assessment of economic developments and inflationary pressures to decide upon a desired path for the MCI that will result in a rate of inflation, six to eight quarters ahead, that is within the Bank's target band. Mr. Freedman also uses specific examples to explain how various shocks to the economy can change the Bank's desired path for monetary conditions. He describes the role that tactical considerations relating to market circumstances play regarding the timing of Bank actions to bring monetary conditions onto the desired path and emphasizes the need to give precedence to steadying nervous markets.

Monetary aggregates and monetary aggregates in the twenty-first century : discussion

Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Canada

The Canadian Dollar, 1971-76: An Exploratory Investigation of Short Run Movements

This paper examines the movement of the Canadian dollar over the 1971-76 period. Although Canadian prices increased substantially more than U.S. prices over this period, there was no tendency for a systematic depreciation of the Canadian dollar. To explain this phenomenon requires the introduction of other factors into the exchange rate equation. Among the variables that proved significant are the Canadian terms of trade, measures of long-term borrowing, the relative cyclical position of Canada and the United States, and the market's errors in forecasting the current account balance. When used together with relative prices, these variables track the movement of the Canadian dollar very satisfactorily over the period.

Some Aspects of the Canadian Experience with Flexible Exchange Rates in the 1970s

In this study, the authors examine three aspects of the Canadian experience with flexible exchange rates in the 1970s: the movements in the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate, the sharp growth of external borrowings by Canadians in the 1974-76 period, and the real effects of relative price movements. Several theoretical and empirical exchange rate models are found to have done poorly in explaining the movements of the value of the Canadian dollar over the decade. In the examination of external borrowings in the mid-1970s, it is concluded that there was some response in borrower and lender behaviour to movements in nominal long-term interest rate differentials. Four sources of explanation for such behaviour are examined. A three-sector model comprising non-tradable goods, resource-based tradable goods and non resource-based tradable goods, is used to study the effects of changes in raw material prices, domestic unit labour costs, and the exchange rate on various real variables in the Canadian economy.

Financial Stability: What It Is and Why It Matters

What is financial stability? What is the role of the central bank and other government agencies in bringing it about? What are the implications for the private sector?monetary policy, financial stability

Financial Developments in Canada: Past Trends and Future Challenges

Freedman and Engert focus on the changing pattern of lending and borrowing in Canada in the past thirty to forty years, including the types of financial instruments used and the relative roles of financial institutions and financial markets. They examine how borrowing mechanisms have changed over time and consider the challenges facing the Canadian financial sector, including whether our financial markets are in danger of disappearing because of the size and pre-eminence of U.S. financial markets. Some of the trends examined here include syndicated lending, securitization, and credit derivatives, a form of financial engineering that has become increasingly important in the last few years. They also study bond and equity markets to determine whether Canadian capital markets have been hollowed out or abandoned by Canadian firms and conclude that the data do not provide much support for that view.

Seifert forms and concordance

If a knot K has Seifert matrix V_K and has a prime power cyclic branched cover that is not a homology sphere, then there is an infinite family of non-concordant knots having Seifert matrix V_K.Comment: Shortened version containing the main examples, published by Geometry and Topology at http://www.maths.warwick.ac.uk/gt/GTVol6/paper14.abs.htm

Taux d’intérêt à long terme, martingales, et marchés efficients

This note discusses some aspects of the relationship between the hypothesis that long-term bond rates follow a martingale process and the hypothesis that the bond market is efficient. It begins with some mathematics of bond prices and interest rates. It then shows that, except in one special case, the hypothesis that bond rates follow a martingale and that bond markets are efficient are theoretically inconsistent. Some empirical work is then adduced that shows that neither hypothesis is supported by the data. It concludes with some brief comments on the literature relating to this subject and some suggestions for further research

Taux d’intérêt à long terme, martingales, et marchés efficients

This note discusses some aspects of the relationship between the hypothesis that long-term bond rates follow a martingale process and the hypothesis that the bond market is efficient. It begins with some mathematics of bond prices and interest rates. It then shows that, except in one special case, the hypothesis that bond rates follow a martingale and that bond markets are efficient are theoretically inconsistent. Some empirical work is then adduced that shows that neither hypothesis is supported by the data. It concludes with some brief comments on the literature relating to this subject and some suggestions for further research.