Local polynomial Whittle estimation of perturbed fractional processes

We propose a semiparametric local polynomial Whittle with noise estimator of the memory parameter in long memory time series perturbed by a noise term which may be serially correlated. The estimator approximates the log-spectrum of the short-memory component of the signal as well as that of the perturbation by two separate polynomials. Including these polynomials we obtain a reduction in the order of magnitude of the bias, but also inflate the asymptotic variance of the long memory estimator by a multiplicative constant. We show that the estimator is consistent for d in (0,1), asymptotically normal for d in (0,3/4), and if the spectral density is sufficiently smooth near frequency zero, the rate of convergence can become arbitrarily close to the parametric rate, sqrt(n). A Monte Carlo study reveals that the proposed estimator performs well in the presence of a serially correlated perturbation term. Furthermore, an empirical investigation of the 30 DJIA stocks shows that this estimator indicates stronger persistence in volatility than the standard local Whittle (with noise) estimator.Bias reduction, local Whittle, long memory, perturbed fractional process, semiparametric estimation, stochastic volatility

A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models.Cointegration, electricity prices, fractional integration, long memory, regime switching

A Logic with Reverse Modalities for History-preserving Bisimulations

We introduce event identifier logic (EIL) which extends Hennessy-Milner logic by the addition of (1) reverse as well as forward modalities, and (2) identifiers to keep track of events. We show that this logic corresponds to hereditary history-preserving (HH) bisimulation equivalence within a particular true-concurrency model, namely stable configuration structures. We furthermore show how natural sublogics of EIL correspond to coarser equivalences. In particular we provide logical characterisations of weak history-preserving (WH) and history-preserving (H) bisimulation. Logics corresponding to HH and H bisimulation have been given previously, but not to WH bisimulation (when autoconcurrency is allowed), as far as we are aware. We also present characteristic formulas which characterise individual structures with respect to history-preserving equivalences.Comment: In Proceedings EXPRESS 2011, arXiv:1108.407

Clustering patterns connecting COVID-19 dynamics and Human mobility using optimal transport

Social distancing and stay-at-home are among the few measures that are known to be effective in checking the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 in a given population. The patterns of dependency between such measures and their effects on disease incidence may vary dynamically and across different populations. We described a new computational framework to measure and compare the temporal relationships between human mobility and new cases of COVID-19 across more than 150 cities of the United States with relatively high incidence of the disease. We used a novel application of Optimal Transport for computing the distance between the normalized patterns induced b

Bregman Voronoi Diagrams: Properties, Algorithms and Applications

The Voronoi diagram of a finite set of objects is a fundamental geometric structure that subdivides the embedding space into regions, each region consisting of the points that are closer to a given object than to the others. We may define many variants of Voronoi diagrams depending on the class of objects, the distance functions and the embedding space. In this paper, we investigate a framework for defining and building Voronoi diagrams for a broad class of distance functions called Bregman divergences. Bregman divergences include not only the traditional (squared) Euclidean distance but also various divergence measures based on entropic functions. Accordingly, Bregman Voronoi diagrams allow to define information-theoretic Voronoi diagrams in statistical parametric spaces based on the relative entropy of distributions. We define several types of Bregman diagrams, establish correspondences between those diagrams (using the Legendre transformation), and show how to compute them efficiently. We also introduce extensions of these diagrams, e.g. k-order and k-bag Bregman Voronoi diagrams, and introduce Bregman triangulations of a set of points and their connexion with Bregman Voronoi diagrams. We show that these triangulations capture many of the properties of the celebrated Delaunay triangulation. Finally, we give some applications of Bregman Voronoi diagrams which are of interest in the context of computational geometry and machine learning.Comment: Extend the proceedings abstract of SODA 2007 (46 pages, 15 figures