Partners in Advocacy: Lobbyists and Government Officials in Washington

One of the most important demonstrations of power in Washington is the ability to recruit sitting government officials to become active proponents of one’s position. Many have suggested money is the key: Campaign contributions buy friends, access, and perhaps even policy activism. We provide an alternative view based on a deceptively simple observation: Lobbyists rarely lobby alone. We show empirically that government policymakers respond to the overall structure of conflict, not the resources of individual lobbying groups. Our project is based on in-depth interviews with over 300 policy advocates and systematic information on each of more than 2,000 advocates playing a significant role in a random sample of 98 policy issues in the United States federal government from 1999 to 2002

The Geographic Distribution of US Executions

We review statistical patterns of the geographic distribution of US executions, compare them to homicides, and demonstrate extremely high degrees of concentration of executions in the modern period compared to previous historical periods. We further show that this unprecedented level of concentration has been increasing over the past 20 years. We demonstrate that it is virtually uncorrelated with factors related to homicides. Finally, we show that it corresponds to a statistical distribution associated with “self-reinforcing” processes: a power-law or exponential distribution. These findings stand whether we look at individual counties within death-penalty states, across the 50 states of the United States, or look at the international distribution of executions across countries in recent years. The substantive conclusion from the statistical patterns observed is that these cannot be explained merely by random variation around some general average. Rather, localities start down a path, then are reinforced in their pathways. There appears to be little to no logic about why certain counties are the high-use counties, whereas the vast majority have never executed a single individual in 40 years of experience with the modern death penalty, often in spite of thousands of homicides. Our research indicates that a main determinant of whether an individual will be executed is not the crime they commit, but the jurisdiction’s experience with executing others. This is not acceptable—legally, morally, or constitutionally

Popular presidents can influence Congress with the State of the Union, but an unpopular president will simply be ignored

Next year, President Obama will face both a Republican House and Senate, potentially reducing significantly his power over the legislature. Could the increasingly unpopular Obama still exercise some degree of influence through his State of the Union address? Using more than 60 years of data on Congressional policy agendas and the State of the Union John Lovett, Shaun Bevan, and Frank Baumgartner find that the president is more able to influence congressional committees soon after the State of the Union, when they share the same party, and when the president is popular. They also find that this influence is greater over the House than the Senate

Blacks are much more likely to be executed for killing whites than whites who have killed blacks

Last year saw the increased popularization of the “#BlackLivesMatter” movement in the wake of the killing of unarmed Black men by police in Ferguson, Missouri, and New York. In new research, Frank Baumgartner, Amanda Grigg, and Alisa Mastro find that in the area of capital punishment, Black lives seem to matter far less than whites’. They find that, since 1976, twice as many blacks have been executed for killing whites than whites have been for killing blacks, and that while Blacks make up 47 percent of all homicide victims, they are only 17 percent of the victims of those executed. They write that despite the arguments of those who feel that #BlackLivesMatter is a redundant movement, the racial disparities apparent in the justice system make it anything but

Electoral turnover has very little effect on the spending habits of Western democracies

Do new electoral brooms sweep clean the economic policies of the parties that went before? In new research that examines how incoming Western governments set their spending priorities, Derek A. Epp, John Lovett, and Frank R. Baumgartner find that budgets tend to be set with little regard to a government’s ideology, be it left or right. They argue that when setting budgets, incoming policymakers are constrained by social, economic and international realities that are largely beyond their control. This means that budgets are set consistently and inconsistently with what went before at roughly the same rate; left-wing parties do not necessarily favor “big government” nor to right parties always seek to reduce government spending

Replacing Members with Managers? Mutualism among Membership and Nonmembership Advocacy Organizations in the United States

Associations with a professional staff but no members (nonmembership advocacy organizations, or NMAOs) are the subject of lively debate. Many argue that their proliferation has allowed an expansion of advocacy without an accompanying growth in civic engagement. This article asks if there has been significant recent growth of NMAOs and if those organizations have displaced membership advocacy organizations (MAOs). The authors find no evidence for a proportional increase of NMAOs since the 1960s. Further, among all organizations in three populationspeace, women's issues, and human rightsNMAOs have not displaced MAOs. In particular, the authors find that MAO density shapes NMAO founding, as membership groups provide a base for professional advocacy. These findings challenge the notion that U.S. civic life has undergone a systemic transformation away from organizational forms that promote civic engagement

Event dependence in U.S. executions

Since 1976, the United States has seen over 1,400 judicial executions, and these have been highly concentrated in only a few states and counties. The number of executions across counties appears to fit a stretched distribution. These distributions are typically reflective of self-reinforcing processes where the probability of observing an event increases for each previous event. To examine these processes, we employ two-pronged empirical strategy. First, we utilize bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to determine whether the pattern of executions reflect a stretched distribution, and confirm that they do. Second, we test for event-dependence using the Conditional Frailty Model. Our tests estimate the monthly hazard of an execution in a given county, accounting for the number of previous executions, homicides, poverty, and population demographics. Controlling for other factors, we find that the number of prior executions in a county increases the probability of the next execution and accelerates its timing. Once a jurisdiction goes down a given path, the path becomes self-reinforcing, causing the counties to separate out into those never executing (the vast majority of counties) and those which use the punishment frequently. This finding is of great legal and normative concern, and ultimately, may not be consistent with the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution

Divided Government, Legislative Productivity, and Policy Change in the USA and France

The concept of “divided government” is more complicated than scholars have allowed. In the USA, truly unified government, where the president enjoys a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate as well as a majority in the House, is rare. In France, truly unified government has been more common, but divided government has also occurred several times. Democratic governance requires that parties address important issues and they do so regardless of the patterns of institutional control. Nevertheless, policy changes or important laws are affected by the higher level of institutional friction associated with divided government. Looking at both the USA and France, we find that periods of unified government show higher levels of production of important laws in the USA, but we find no difference for overall legislative productivity

Intragenus F1-hybrids of African weakly electric fish (Mormyridae: Campylomormyrus tamandua ♂ × C. compressirostris ♀) are fertile

Hybridization is widespread in fish and constitutes an important mechanism in fish speciation. There is, however, little knowledge about hybridization in mormyrids. F1-interspecies hybrids between Campylomormyrus tamandua ♂ × C. compressirostris ♀ were investigated concerning: (1) fertility; (2) survival of F2-fish and (3) new gene combinations in the F2-generation concerning the structure of the electric organ and features of the electric organ discharge. These F1-hybrids achieved sexual maturity at about 12–13.5 cm total length. A breeding group comprising six males and 13 females spawned 28 times naturally proving these F1-fish to be fertile. On average 228 eggs were spawned, the average fertilization rate was 47.8%. Eggs started to hatch 70–72 h after fertilization, average hatching rate was 95.6%. Average mortality rate during embryonic development amounted to 2.3%. Average malformation rate during the free embryonic stage was 27.7%. Exogenous feeding started on day 11. In total, we raised 353 normally developed larvae all of which died consecutively, the oldest specimen reaching an age of 5 months. During survival, the activities of the larval and adult electric organs were recorded and the structure of the adult electric organ was investigated histologically.Peer Reviewe