Expanding the framework for analyzing National Missile Defenses a proposal for discussion

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1080/1475179022000232

The Sixth-Generation Quandary

Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Progra

Toward Realistic Acquisition Schedule Estimates: 737MAX Case

This paper continues a research agenda started in 2016 with an aim of more realistic acquisition program scheduling estimates, especially for the development (SSD) phase. This, our third look at the scheduling problem, starts with a discussion of scheduling data, and how that data could be applied to help the DoD address this challenge. This section includes ideas on how to use acquisition data for the scheduling problem. Next, we present a case study of the result of field interviews with senior DoD leaders. Finally, we present a discussion on using the system performance as a metric.Prepared for the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93943.Naval Postgraduate SchoolApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

A game theory view of military conflict in the Taiwan strait

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1080/147517903200014941

Telling Time: Getting Relevant Data for Acquisition Schedule Estimating Relationships

Symposium PresentationApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Telling Time: Getting Relevant Data for Acquisition Schedule Estimating Relationships

Acquisition Research Program Sponsored Report SeriesSponsored Acquisition Research & Technical ReportsThis continuing project aims to examine weapons systems development schedules to identify ways to predict the duration of the defense acquisition schedule more accurately. This study aims to provide a more complete understanding of the myriad factors that drive the weapon system development timelines. In particular, we propose to investigate insights from contemporary data science methods to identify variables critical to predicting acquisition schedules through Schedule Estimating Relationships.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Telling Time: Getting Relevant Data for Acquisition Schedule Estimating Relationships

Excerpt from the Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Acquisition Research SymposiumThis paper is part of a research agenda outlined in Franck et al. (2016) directed toward improving the realism of defense acquisition schedules. Defense acquisition schedules have long been a difficult problem. In this particular effort, we consider primarily the case of the 737MAX, which has been a fortuitous example of the risks of scheduling-by-fiat. We analyze the 737MAX misadventure using systems dynamics and root cause analysis methods. A fundamental question for defense acquisition schedule estimating is the extent to which schedule drivers vary (or don’t) across various defense acquisition programs. If the programs are, in fact, idiosyncratic in nature, then we have prospects of explaining observed schedules (with program-specific explanatory variables). However, to the extent that common themes drive schedules across whole classes of programs, we have better prospects of predicting expected schedule length. This paper aims to (a) present a useful perspective of this question and (b) offer suggestions for the way forward.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

The access deterrence scenario: A new approach to assessing national missile defenses

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1080/1475179022000233

Global Aerospace Industries: Rapid Changes Ahead? (Abridged)

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)This paper is prepared for the Ninth Annual Acquisition Research Symposium, as an abridged version of a longer report. We focus on certain key aspects of the EADS''Boeing rivalry''which, among other things, is one of the major features of international firmament of defense industrial affairs. We discuss selection of the Boeing KC-46 over the EADS KC-45 in 2011, seeking to understand connections among the associated events. We also seek to find useful explanatory models for Boeing''s success, discussed in Chapter II. In Chapter III, we consider the narrow-body airliner market, currently a Boeing''EADS duopoly. It has been a centerpiece of the firms'' rivalry, as well as a major source of profits for both. As such, these narrow-body families have provided resources for a number of wide-body developments, some of which have become part of the defense marketplace. The narrow-body market has been so profitable that other firms are positioning themselves to mount challenges to the two incumbents. These outlying firms have already made the market more competitive in a real sense. And, if these potential challengers become successful entrants, then Boeing and EADS will have lower profits, with major repercussions for both firms and their defense customers.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Efficient Reachability Graph Representation of Petri Nets With Unbounded Counters

AbstractIn this paper, we define a class of Petri nets, called Petri nets with counters, that can be seen as place/transition Petri nets enriched with a vector of integer variables on which linear operations may be applied. Their semantics usually leads to huge or infinite reachability graphs. Then, a more compact representation for this semantics is defined as a symbolic state graph whose nodes possibly encode infinitely many values for the variables. Both representations are shown behaviourally equivalent