Symposium PresentationApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Franck, Raymond

Pickar, Charles

English

Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School

Calhoun: The NPS Institutional ArchiveDSpace RepositoryAcquisition Research Program Acquisition Research Symposium2022-05-06Telling Time: Getting Relevant Data forAcquisition Schedule Estimating RelationshipsPickar, Charles; Franck, RaymondMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolhttp://hdl.handle.net/10945/70235Downloaded from NPS Archive: CalhounTelling Time: Getting Relevant Data for Acquisition Schedule Estimating RelationshipsCharles K. Pickar, Naval Postgraduate SchoolRaymond (Chip) FranckC h a r l e s  P i c k a r  ( N P S )  &C h i p  F r a n c k  ( U S A F  A c a d e m y)Some Near-Universal Schedule Estimating Complications• External Factors• acquisition policy regime (McNicol and Wu, 2014),• funding “climate” (McNicol 2015 and 2020), • External shocks, such as major funding changes, new requirements (GAO, 2010), bid protests with associated litigation (Amara and Franck, 2021), and• “Acts of God” (such as hurricanes, Werner, 2019).2More Near-Universal Scheduling Complications:Managed Processes & Outside Observers3Program Management “Trade Space”One Simple Example422.22.42.62.833.23.43.6CostScheduleExpected Cost vs. Expected SchedulePerformance Fixed BETTER OUTCOMESPERFORMANCE > 85PEFORMANCE = 100Realistic schedule estimates don’t happen spontaneously• Initial estimates are influenced by program start optimism ("planning fallacy")• More optimistic promises increase likelihood of winning the contact; i.e., those optimists are incentivized to be optimistic• After source selection, it becomes harder to enforce those promises ("fundamental transformation")5Schedules & Complexity6Complexity as Fundamental Schedule Problem• The challenge of defining schedule complexity• The challenge of finding schedule complexity• The challenge of measuring schedule complexity• The challenge of addressing schedule complexity7Project complexity is defined as a system consisting of many varied interrelated parts. It can be operationalized in terms of differentiation and interdependency**Baccarini, D. (1996). The concept of project complexity--a review. International Journal of Project Management, 14(4), 201-204.Schedule Complexity• Book notes there are Fundamental Differences between Dollars and  Time:• Metrics• Time (e.g., Months)• Dollars• Why Does This Matter?• Dollars Can Be Moved from one task to another—underruns and overruns can potentially balance out• Time Cannot Be Moved from one activity to another—no balancing• Cost is complicated; Schedule is Complex!*Book, S. A. (2002). Schedule Risk Analysis: Why It is Important and How to Do It. Proceedings from Ground Systems Architectures Workshop GSAW, MCR Inc. 8Time is more complex than money*• A Development Program is a System• Inputs--outputs• Many interdependent, individual activities arranged in a Network• A dynamic, unstable metric in a dynamic, unstable system***Book, S. A. (2002). Schedule Risk Analysis: Why It is Important and How to Do It. Proceedings from Ground Systems Architectures Workshop GSAW, MCR Inc.9**San Cristóbal, J. R., Carral, L., Diaz, E., Fraguela, J. A., & Iglesias, G. (2018). Complexity and Project Management: A General Overview. Complexity, 2018, 1-10. doi:10.1155/2018/4891286Schedule ComplexityUncertaintyDynamicSocio-PoliticalStructuralSystem** Project (Weapon SystremCost, Schedule and Performance10*After Sheard and A. Mostashari, “A complexity typology for systems engineering,” Syst. Eng, 2009. **Williams, T. (2002). Modelling complex projects. John Wiley &amp; Sons Inc. Retrieved from http://books.google.com/books?id=NYAeAQAAIAAJ&amp;q=intitle:Modelling+complex+projects&amp;dq=intitle:Modelling+complex+projects&amp;hl=&amp;cd=1&amp;source=gbs_api11Dimension of complexity Reference- Uncertainty about the scope of the project Tatikonda & Rosenthal (2000); Maximiano (2002; 2010); Turner & Cochrane (1993); Remington et al. (2009); Scranton (2008); Williams (1999); Baccarini (1996); Shtub et al. (1994).- Uncertainty about the product of the project Tatikonda & Rosenthal (2000); Maximiano (2002; 2010); Turner & Cochrane (1993); Remington et al.(2009); Scranton (2008); Williams (1999); Baccarini (1996); Shtub et al. (1994).- Significant change in the scope of the project during its implementationGeraldi (2007); Geraldi & Adlbrecht (2007); Remington et al. (2009); Williams (1999); Fitsilis (2009); Turner & Cochane (1993).- High difficulty to achieve performance goals Williams (1999); Maximiano (2002); Tatikonda & Rosenthal (2000); Baccarini (1996); Fitsilis (2009).- High number of stakeholders with influence on the projectWilliams (1999); Remington et al. (2009); Fitsilis (2009).- High interdependence between firms involved in the project.Baccarini (1996); Williams (1999); Geraldi (2007); Remington et al. (2009); Maximiano (2010); Fitsilis (2009).- Novelty of the technology Baccarini (1996); Tatikonda & Rosenthal (2000); Fitsilis (2009); Williams (1999); Geraldi (2007); Remington et al (2009).- High interdependence between the technologies Geraldi (2007); Geraldi & Adlbrecht (2007); Remington et al. (2009); Williams (1999); Remington (1996); Pollack, 2007; Baccarini (1996); Fitsilis (2009); Tatikonda & Rosenthal (2000); Ireland (2007); Maximiano (2010).- High multidisciplinary Baccarini (1996); Maximiano (2002); Geraldi (2007); Geraldi & Adlbrecht (2007); Fitsilis (2009).- Large number of different activities to be performed Baccarini (1996); Williams (1999); Fitsilis (2009).Y u g u e ,  R .  T .  &  M a x i m i a n o ,  A .  C .  A .  ( 2 0 1 2 ) .  P r o j e c t  C o m p l e x i t y  a n d  M a n a g e m e n t  P r o c e s s e s .  P a p e r  p r e s e n t e d  a t  P M I ®  R e s e a r c h  a n d  E d u c a t i o n  C o n f e r e n c e ,  L i m e r i c k ,  M u n s t e r ,  I r e l a n d .  N e w t o w n  S q u a r e ,  P A :  P r o j e c t  M a n a g e m e n t  I n s t i t u t e .Finding Complexity• Acquisition Data—but will you know it when you see it?• What is the determinant of complexity in the acq data• Finding “Structural knowledge” • How the variables in a system (schedule) are related and influence one another*• Schedule Delay Factors• The “unthinking application of a sequence of actions we have once learned” • How do you measure it?12*Dörner, D. (1996). The Logic Of Failure. Basic Books. Retrieved from http://books.google.com/books? id=UrjHjgEACAAJ&amp;dq=intitle:The+Logic+Of+Failure&amp;hl=&amp;cd=1&amp;source=gbs_apiA Complexity Assessment Tool*Complexity Assessment ToolParameterLow<25 ptsMedium<50 ptsHigh<75 ptsVery high<100WeightTotal  complexity indexSize $<10M $10-99M $100-500M >$500MProject Duration <1 yr <3 yr <7 yr >7 yrRatio Budget/ DurationOrganizational PdM PM PM PEOBudget Yes Some Little First TimeRisk Low Med High Very HighTechnical ComplexityLow Med High Very HighTechnological MaturityVery High High Med LowDynamics No Little Some YesHuman DimensionComponent Subsystem System SOSNumber of contr/ subs<3 < 5 < 7 >7SoftwareTotal * After Thamhain, H. J. (Ed.). (2014). Managing Technology-Based Projects. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley &amp; Sons.So What• Contemporary defense acquisition programs are inherently complex in many dimensions• ... from technical novelty to the number of pages in a contract• The people involved make them more complicated• Bottom Line—We need:• More data • Different Data (beyond the historical approach)• Better methods to understand (and predict)14“‘Catastrophes’ seem to hit suddenly, but in reality, the way has been prepared for them. Unperceived forces gradually eat away at the supports necessary for favorable development until the system is finally unable to resist any longer and collapses.” Dietrich Dörner, The Logic of FailureQuestions15

Telling Time: Getting Relevant Data for Acquisition Schedule Estimating Relationships

https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/70235/SYM-AM-22-164.pdf?sequence=1

Telling Time: Getting Relevant Data for Acquisition Schedule Estimating Relationships

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School