Estimaciones del pleno empleo de las regiones españolas: métodos de alisamiento, equilibrio a largo plazo y el enfoque de los salarios

La Cumbre Europea de Lisboa (2000) señaló, entre otras cuestiones, los fuertes desequilibrios regionales existentes en Europa en materia de desempleo. Sin embargo, en la misma se decidió plantear los objetivos para el mercado de trabajo no en función del nivel de desempleo, sino en función del nivel de empleo: se pretende que el 70% de la población adulta (15-64 años) tenga empleo en el año 2010. Esta tasa de empleo implica aproximadamente una tasa de desempleo del 5%. Esta tasa parece ser la tasa consensuada de pleno empleo pero es necesaria una aproximación econométrica para estimar esta variable inobservable. La economía española no es precisamente ajena a los desequilibrios anteriores. Por ello, en este trabajo estimamos el pleno empleo de cada una de las regiones españolas. Para atender a dicha finalidad utilizamos distintas metodologías, lo que nos permite realizar comparaciones: a) Métodos de alisamiento (mínimo desempleo histórico, medias móviles y filtro de Hodrick-Prescott); b) Equilibrio a largo plazo (solución particular de un AR(1) para la tasa de desempleo); y c) El enfoque de los salarios (estimación de "time-varying" NAWRUs utilizando el método de Elmeskov)

Curvas de Phillips y NAWRUs regionales: Evidencia empírica para la economía española

En este trabajo proporcionamos estimaciones de las NAWRUs (Tasa de Desempleo no Aceleradora de los Salarios) regionales de la economía española para el periodo 1989-2000. Hemos utilizado el método de Elmeskov, ampliamente implementado en la última década -por ejemplo en el marco del FMI y la OCDE- con el objetivo de obtener una "time-varying" NAWRU. Estas estimaciones nos permiten introducir el desempleo cíclico como argumento de las curvas de Phillips para las distintas Comunidades Autónomas. Los resultados obtenidos no reflejan la esperada relación negativa entre inflación salarial y desempleo.NAWRU, hysteresis, Phillips curve, regional labour markets.

The “Peñaflor” type roman imitation pottery and the beginnings of Astigi (Écija, Sevilla)

Al conocimiento que se desprende de la excavación de un amplio sector de la necrópolis occidental de Astigi hay que sumar el hallazgo contextualizado de ajuares de copa y plato producidos en cerámica “Tipo Peñaflor”, que se introducen como elemento partícipe del ritual de enterramiento. Ello nos sirve de excusa para analizar, por un lado, las producciones del taller de Celti y su evolución a partir de los restos exhumados en la Calle Bellidos, mientras que, por el otro, se hará hincapié en el papel de esta especie cerámica a la hora de encuadrar cronológicamente necrópolis en los primeros años de la historia de la colonia.To the data collected from the excavation of a wide area in the west part of the Astigi necropolis, we must add the discovery of cups and saucers sets produced in “Peñaflor” type of ceramic, which were introduced as an active part in the burial rituals. This discovery give us the excuse to analyze from one side; the Celti workshop productions and their evolution from rests found in “Calle Bellidos”, and from another side, allow us to focus on the importance of this ceramic species in the chronological identification of necropolis from the first years in the history of the colony

An Empirical Investigation of Multinationality and Stock Price Crash Risk for MNCs in China

There is a large volume of literature in international business on multinationality. There is an equally large volume of literature in finance on stock price crash risk. However, very few studies have attempted to provide a link between these two research areas. Using an unbalanced panel data consisting of 473 multinational corporations (MNCs) publicly listed in the Chinese stock markets during 2004 to 2020, this paper is one of the first to empirically investigate whether and to what extent multinationality affects stock price crash risk. The paper finds strong evidence that multinational operation is negatively related to stock price crash risk. In addition, MNCs with better corporate governance quality experience larger decline in stock price crash risk when the degree of multinationality increases. Furthermore, MNCs with higher stock market liquidity experience lower crash risk. An important implication is that companies should strengthen their corporate governance and market liquidity while “going global”.Universiti Teknologi Brune

Extended Fuzzy Sets and Their Applications

This contribution deals with introducing the innovative concept of extended fuzzy set (E-FS), in which the S-norm function of membership and non-membership grades is less than or equal to one. The proposed concept not only encompasses the concept of the fuzzy set (FS), but it also includes the concepts of the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS), the Pythagorean fuzzy set (PFS) and the p-rung orthopair fuzzy set (p-ROFS). In order to explore the features of the E-FS concept, set and algebraic operations on E-FSs, average and geometric operations of E-FSs are studied and an E-FS score function is defined. The superiority of the E-FS concept is further confirmed with a score-based decision making technique in which the concepts of FS, IFS, PFS and p-ROFS do not make sense

Short-Sale Constraints and Stock Prices: Evidence from Implementation of Securities Refinancing Mechanism in Chinese Stock Markets

Qualified Securities for Short-sale Refinancing (QSSR) is a unique trading mechanism that has exogenously increased the supply of loanable securities in Chinese stock markets. Using difference-in-differences (DID) methodology, this paper is the first to investigate whether and to what extent additions to the QSSR eligibility list affect short selling activities and stock price behaviors. The paper finds that stocks added to the QSSR list exhibit better liquidity and less negative skewness in returns than non-QSSR stocks. However, QSSR stocks are more volatile and display a higher frequency of extreme negative returns. In addition, on average, QSSR stocks experience larger negative abnormal returns (ARs) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) relative to non-QSSR stocks, and the difference in CARs is positively related to investor heterogeneity. The results indicate that short selling has mixed effects on stock prices. Removing short-sale constraints can improve liquidity and reduce price bubbles, but can also increase return volatility and amplify market crashes.Universiti Teknologi Brune

Using Data Mining in Educational Administration: A Case Study on Improving School Attendance

The authors would like to thank the leadership and staff of Willen Primary School for permitting us to use their data and for their efforts in supporting this study, in particular, Ms Emma Warner (attendance officer), Ms Carrie Matthews (headteacher), and Ms Sarah Orr (deputy headteacher).Pupil absenteeism remains a significant problem for schools across the globe with negative impacts on overall pupil performance being well-documented. Whilst all schools continue to emphasize good attendance, some schools still find it difficult to reach the required average attendance, which in the UK is 96%. A novel approach is proposed to help schools improve attendance that leverages the market target model, which is built on association rule mining and probability theory, to target sessions that are most impactful to overall poor attendance. Tests conducted at Willen Primary School, in Milton Keynes, UK, showed that significant improvements can be made to overall attendance, attendance in the target session, and persistent (chronic) absenteeism, through the use of this approach. The paper concludes by discussing school leadership, research implications, and highlights future work which includes the development of a software program that can be rolled-out to other schools

Regression Analysis of Macroeconomic Conditions and Capital Structures of Publicly Listed British Firms

Using an unbalanced panel of 922 non-financial companies publicly listed on the London Stock Exchange during January 1995 and September 2014, this article tests the predictions of Pecking Order Theory (POT), Trade-off Theory (TOT) and Market Timing Theory (MTT) of capital structure through the lens of macroeconomic conditions. We find strong evidence that leverage is negatively associated with the business cycle but positively related to stock market performance, which is consistent with POT. In addition, leverage is negatively related to financial market risk, as predicted by TOT. Furthermore, leverage is positively related to credit supply, which is in line with both the POT and TOT. Finally, there is no evidence in support of MTT. The above results are robust with respect to the measurement of macroeconomic variables, the choice of estimation methods and the inclusion of a dummy variable to account for the effect of the 2008 financial crisis. An important implication is that, because firms tend to be highly levered during business cycle downturns, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to encourage more business borrowings may not be effective after all

A Trust Risk Dynamic Management Mechanism Based on Third-Party Monitoring for the Conflict-Eliminating Process of Social Network Group Decision Making

This work was supported in part by the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province under Grant KYCX20_0507; in part by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant B200203165 and Grant B220203013; in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grant 71871085; in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province under Grant BK20210634; in part by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST under Grant 1521182101004; and in part by the China Scholarship Council under Grant 202106710123.Every decision may involve risks. Real-world risk issues are usually supervised by third parties. Decision-making may be affected by the absence of sufficient or reasonable trust or to the opposite, an unconditional, excessive, or blind trust, which is called trust risks. The conflict-eliminating process (CEP) aims to facilitate satisfactory consensus by decision makers (DMs) through continuous reconciliation between their opinion differences on the subject matter. This article addresses trust risks in CEP of social network group decision making (SNGDM) through third-party monitoring. A trust risk analysis-based conflict-eliminating model for SNGDM is developed. It is assumed that a third-party agency monitors the DMs’ credibility and performance, which is recorded in an objective evaluation matrix and multi-attribute trust assessment matrix (MTAM). A trust risk measurement methodology is proposed to classify the DMs’ different trust risk types and to measure the trust risk index (TRI) of a group of DMs. When TRI is unacceptable, a trust risk management mechanism that controls TRI is activated. Different management policies are applicable to DMs’ different trust risk types. There are two main methods: 1) dynamically update the MTAM based on DMs’ performance and 2) provide suggestions for modifying the DM’s information with high TRI. Besides, as part of the integrated CEP, this model includes an optimization approach to dynamically derive DMs’ reliable aggregation weights from their MTAM. Simulation experiments and an illustrative example support the feasibility and validity of the proposed model for managing trust risks in CEP of SNGDM.Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province KYCX20_0507Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities B200203165 B220203013National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) 71871085Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province BK20210634Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST 1521182101004China Scholarship Council 20210671012