ARV patients and model fit.

<p>Number of patients receiving ARV and model fit. Brazil, 1999–2007. The blue line, number of patients of all age reported by the Brazilian STD, AIDS and Viral Hepatitis Department; the red line, Spectrum estimates of number of patients receiving ARV aged 15–49.</p

Impact of disinhibition with 40% efficacy vaccine.

<p>Number of new HIV infections estimates with a 40% efficacy vaccine and presence of disinhibition. Red line, baseline projection in the absence of a vaccine; blue line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49; brown line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49 with gradual disinhibition; purple line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49 with instantaneous disinhibition; green line, vaccination of specific population (MSM, IDU, medium- and high-risk heterosexuals) with instantaneous disinhibition.</p

Impact of disinhibition with 70% efficacy vaccine.

<p>Number of new HIV infections estimates with a 70% efficacy vaccine and presence of disinhibition. Red line, baseline projection in the absence of a vaccine; blue line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49; purple line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49 with instantaneous disinhibition.</p

HIV vaccine impact on new infections.

<p>Number of estimated new HIV infections according to population vaccinated by year. Red line, baseline projection in the absence of a vaccine; green line, vaccination of adolescents (15 years old); purple line, vaccination of specific population: MSM, IDU, medium- and high-risk heterosexuals; blue line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49.</p

Failure to reach medium- and high-risk behavior groups.

<p>Estimated number of new HIV infections with a 40% efficacy vaccine according to vaccine coverage (%) of population targeted. Red line, baseline projection in the absence of a vaccine; blue line, 80% coverage of adults aged 15–49; purple line, 80% coverage of low-risk-adults aged 15–49 and 20% coverage of specific population: MSM, IDU, medium- and high-risk heterosexuals.</p

Vaccination Strategies.

<p>Vaccine efficacy, cumulative number of new HIV infections, percentage reduction in relation to a no vaccine scenario, cumulative number of new HIV infections averted, number of doses required, and number of infections averted per 100,000 population vaccinated according to population to be vaccinated and type of vaccine (preventive or disease modifying).</p><p>*Compared to No Vaccine Scenario, where 847,850 new HIV infections would occur from 2020 to 2050 in the absence of vaccination.</p

Impact of disease-modifying vaccine on number of new HIV infections.

<p>Number of new HIV infections according to population vaccinated with a disease-modifying vaccine. Red line, baseline projection in the absence of a vaccine; blue line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49; purple line, vaccination of specific population: MSM, IDU, medium- and high-risk heterosexuals.</p

Impact of disease-modifying vaccine on number of AIDS deaths.

<p>Number of AIDS deaths according to population vaccinated with a disease-modifying vaccine. Red line, baseline projection in the absence of a vaccine; blue line, vaccination of adults aged 15–49; purple line, vaccination of specific population: MSM, IDU, medium- and high-risk heterosexuals.</p

Parameter Values used to Simulate the Brazilian HIV Epidemic.

<p>Parameter Values used to Simulate the Brazilian HIV Epidemic.</p

Patients on ARV.

<p>Estimated number of patients receiving ARV according to type of vaccine by year. Red line, baseline projection in the absence of a vaccine; blue line, 40% efficacy preventive vaccine; green line, 100% disease-modifying vaccine with 40% reduction in infectiousness.</p