Additional file 1: of Predicting the impact of border control on malaria transmission: a simulated focal screen and treat campaign

Mathematical model description. Additional file contains the model description, model equations and additional information on the data-fitting process

Predicted average weekly treated cases (blue: 2002–2008 red: 2009–2012) fitted to and validated with data (black).

<p>The 95% uncertainty range for weekly case predictions is shown.</p

The number of reported treated cases are depicted for all the municipalities in Mpumalanga Province for 2002 and 2012.

<p>The number of reported treated cases are depicted for all the municipalities in Mpumalanga Province for 2002 and 2012.</p

Predicted impact of interventions on the number of local infections in the Ehlanzeni district (summation of the five local patches).

<p>(a) shows the impact of the interventions on local infections in Ehlanzeni district through time compared to the base case of no interventions (black) and (b) shows the percentage change (increase or decrease) in point estimates of local infections due to the interventions between 2013 and 2018. (1) Local Scale-up: Increase in local vector control so as to reduce the mosquito-human contact rate by a further 10% (red), three consecutive two-monthly rounds of MDA in Mbombela, Nkomazi and Bushbuckridge Municipalities (green). (2) FSAT at the border: at 70% coverage for 26 weeks (red), 39 weeks (green), 52 weeks (blue) and 52 weeks at 100% coverage (purple). (3) Reducing Vector Control: FSAT at the border at 70% coverage administered all year round while simultaneously reducing vector control by 10% (red), 20% (green) and stopping vector control altogether (blue). (4) Source Reduction: 10% scale up of vector control in Maputo (red), three consecutive two-monthly rounds of MDA in Maputo (green) and eliminating malaria in Maputo (blue). The base case of no intervention is shown in black.</p

A map of Mpumalanga Province in relation to Mozambique and Swaziland (Source: Mpumalanga Malaria Elimination Programme (unpublished)).

<p>A map of Mpumalanga Province in relation to Mozambique and Swaziland (Source: Mpumalanga Malaria Elimination Programme (unpublished)).</p

Percentage plot of locally and foreign-sourced malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.

<p>Percentage plot of locally and foreign-sourced malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.</p

Seasonal trend of monthly malaria cases in Mpumalanga and Maputo, Mozambique between 2002 and 2012.

<p>Seasonal trend of monthly malaria cases in Mpumalanga and Maputo, Mozambique between 2002 and 2012.</p

The weekly and annual reported treated malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.

<p>The weekly and annual reported treated malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.</p

Two year seasonal trend of reported treated malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.

<p>Two year seasonal trend of reported treated malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.</p

Seasonality and trend components of an STL decomposition of locally and foreign-sourced malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.

<p>Seasonality and trend components of an STL decomposition of locally and foreign-sourced malaria cases in Mpumalanga Province between 2002 and 2012.</p