Small sample power of tests of normality when the alternative is an alpha-stable distribution

This paper is a Monte-Carlo study of the small sample power of six tests of a normality hypotheses when the alternative is an alpha-stable distribution with param- eter values similar to those estimated for monthly total returns on equity indices. In these circumstances a sample size of 2oo is required to detect departures from normality. In most cases only small samples of consistent monthly data on such to- tal returns are available and these are not sufficient to differentiate between normal and alpha-stable distributions.

Inflation and Money Growth - Evidence from a Multi-Country Data-Set

Using a multi-country data set strong correlation are found between average growth rates of monetary aggregates and average inflation. The correlation remains strong when countries with higher average inflation rates are removed from the sample. These results confirm the strong correlation found in the traditional literature but contradict those in De Grauwe and Polan (2001) who, in a recent analysis, find that the strong link vanishes when higher inflation countries are excluded. Further analysis confirms the unit response and bears out the value of monetary aggregates as an input to the making of monetary policy.

Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Regression Coefficients with alpha-stable residuals and Day of Week effects in Total Returns on Equity Indices

This Paper summarizes the theory of Maximum Likelihood Estimation of regressions with alpha-stable residuals. Day of week effects in returns on equity indices, adjusted for dividends (total returns) are estimated and tested using this and traditional OLS methodology. I find that the alpha-stable methodology is feasible. There are some differences in the results from the two methodologies. The conclusion remains that if individual coefficients are of interest and the residuals have fat tails and a possible alpha-stable distribution, the results can be checked for robustness using methods such as those employed here.alpha stable distribution, regression, day of week effects

A RATS subroutine to implement the Chow-Lin distribution/interpolation procedure

This paper describes a RATS (www.estima.com) routine to implement the Chow Lin (1971) procedure for the best linear unbiased distribution and interpolation of time series by related series. Various versions of this procedure have been used in the Bank to distribute/interpolate annual to quarterly time series. One particular use of the routine described here has been to derive quarterly national accounts that have been used to estimate a quarterly macro model of the Irish economy and in various other research studies in the Bank. A zip archive containing a pdf version of the paper, the RATS routine, a sample program and data is available for download. The archive was created using Info-ZIP’s WIZ (http://www.info-zip.org/pub/infozip/WiZ.html) and may be expanded using this program or similar program.

An Introduction to Matlab for Econometrics

This paper is an introduction to MATLAB for econometrics. It describes the MATLAB Desktop, contains a sample MATLAB session showing elementary MATLAB operations, gives details of data input/output, decision and loop structures, elementary plots, describes the LeSage econometrics toolbox and maximum likelihood using the LeSage toolbox. Various worked examples of the use of MATLAB in econometrics are also given. After reading this document the reader should be able to make better use of the MATLAB on-line help and manuals.Matlab, Econometric Software

Value at Risk (VaR) and the alpha-stable distribution

Volatility in financial markets is a matter of considerable concern to financial institutions and their supervisors. Already it is clear that this volatility has had an adverse effect on the real economy. Many measures of risk that are used today do not take full account of the kind of extreme changes in asset prices that have been observed. This paper finds that the Value at Risk measure of risk can be improved by the use of an alpha-stable distribution in place of more conventional measures. The paper describes the use of this measure and implements it for six total returns equity portfolios. We find that alpha-stable based measures are feasible and are better than conventional measures. They are a useful tool for the risk manager and the financial regulator.alpha stable distribution, Value at Risk, VaR

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A defence democracy ‘in’ the United States : gender and politics in the unincorporated territory of Guam

In 2018, the island of Guåhan (Guam), an unincorporated territory of the United States (US), elected the island’s first “Maga’håga” or first woman Governor of Guam, Lourdes Leon Guerrero. Guåhan became the first state or territory “in” the US to secure a legislative supermajority with all three branches of government headed by a woman. While political progress should be celebrated, local power is constrained by contemporary US colonial structures that enable expanding militarisation. This paper offers an island-centric and gendered analysis of the politics on Guåhan, revealing contesting Indigenous and colonial control over i tåno’ (the land) of a sacred site, Litekyan (Ritidian Point). Defence democracy is demonstrated as the US military flouts locally passed Legislative Resolutions to construct a US$78 million Multi-Purpose Machine Gun Range. This is possible due to “imperial feminisms” frameworks, which celebrates elite female leaders within colonial systems. In response, the Indigenous famalåo’an Guåhan (women of Guam) have organised through the community group, Prutehi Litekyan: Protect Ritidian.peer-reviewe

‘Make America Secure’: Media, militarism, and climate change in the Marianas Archipelago

The 2018 Make America Secure Appropriations Act is the latest United States federal policy which prioritises funds for defence projects at the expense of climate change adaption planning in the Marianas Archipelago. Since 2006, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has released six Environmental Impact Statement documents which outline construction of bombing ranges on the islands of Guam, Pågan, and Tinian. Expanding militarisation of the archipelago is supported by US-owned media through the narrative of pro-American ideologies which frames any resistance as unpatriotic. However, both non-voting US Congress representatives for Guam and Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) express concerns with how federal funds are prioritised for military projects instead of climate change adaption. Further, Indigenous Chamorro and Refaluwasch peoples of the Marianas continue to resist by creating content on alternative digital media platforms and through lawsuits supported by the National Environmental Protection Act against the DoD and Department of the Navy. This article illustrates how remaining as insular areas of the US directly dictates the lack of sovereignty the people of the Marianas have in planning for climate change

Staff awareness of the use of cannabidiol (CBD): a trust-wide survey study in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: Cannabidiol (CBD) is now a legal substance in Europe and is available in 'high street shops', usually as CBD oil. However, in the United Kingdom (UK), there is no clear consensus among healthcare professionals and organisations over how to manage CBD use in their patients. This is an important issue as CBD is a constituent of 'medicinal and recreational cannabis' and is gaining support in the scientific literature and lay media for use in physical and mental health problems. Given the aforementioned, this study is an exploration of healthcare professionals' beliefs and attitudes with regard to CBD. METHODS: In July 2018, we sent requests by email to approximately 2000 clinical staff (including 319 physicians) at a mental health trust in South West London to answer 8 questions in a single survey using Surveyplanet.com , about their beliefs regarding CBD. There was no specific method of choosing the staff, and the aim was to get the email request sent to as many staff as possible on each service line. We did an analysis to see how the attitudes and beliefs of different staff member groups compared. We also gave them space to offer free text responses to illustrate their ideas and concerns. We used chi-squared tests for comparison across groups and used odds ratio for pairwise group comparisons. RESULTS: One hundred ninety surveys were received in response, and of these, 180 were included in the final sample. The physician response rate was 17.2% (55/319); the response rate for non-physicians could not be estimated as their total number was not known at outset. 32.2% of the responders had the right to prescribe (58/180) and 52.8% had an experience of working in addiction services (95/180). We found that staff members who can prescribe were 1.99 times as likely to believe CBD has potential therapeutic properties compared to those who do not (OR = 1.99, CI = 1.03, 3.82; p = 0.038) and 2.94 times less likely to think it had dangerous side effects (OR = 0.34, CI = 0.15, 0.75; p = 0.006). Prescribing healthcare professionals were 2.3 times as likely to believe that CBD reduces the likelihood of psychosis (OR = 2.30, CI = 1.10, 4.78; p = 0.024). However, prescribing healthcare professionals with the ability to prescribe were 2.12 times as likely to believe that CBD should be prescription only (OR = 2.12, CI = 1.12, 4.01; p = 0.02). Individuals experienced in addiction services were 2.22 times as likely to be associated with a belief that CBD has therapeutic properties (OR = 2.22, CI = 1.22, 4.04; p = 0.009). Staff in general reported a lack of knowledge about CBD in their free text responses. CONCLUSIONS: With almost 95% of prescribers being physicians, they appear to demonstrate awareness of potential therapeutic benefit, reduced likelihood of psychosis and seeming lack of dangerous side effects with CBD. However, their higher stringency about the need for prescription implies an attitude of caution. There was also a suggestion that biases about cannabis were influencing responses to questions as well. The external validity of this study could be diminished by sampling bias and limitation to a single mental health trust. Nonetheless, some of the results drew a reasonable comparison with similar studies