Determinants of motor vehicle fatalities using classical specification testing and Bayesian sensitivity methods

Working PaperThis paper uses classical regression methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to addresses the effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates so as to examine the potential of net life-taking and life-saving effects. The models adjust for a time trend (YEAR), the maximum blood alcohol concentration legislation (BAC) required for drunk driving arrests, annual inspection (ANNUAL), the maximum posted rural speed limit (SPEED_RU),a dummy variable indicating the presence of a seat belt law (BELT), per capita consumption of beer (BEER), the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA), the percentage of males aged 16-24 relative to the population of age 16 and over (YOUNG), and various measures of cell phone subscribers (CELL, CELLSQ, CELLCUBE). The measures of cell phones are allowed to enter the model in a nonlinear manner so as to examine the potential of non-monotonic effects of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates as suggested by Loeb et al. (forthcoming). The models are estimated using panel data for all fifty states and the District of Columbia for the years 1980 to 2004. The classical and Bayesian estimates correspond well with each other

Cell phone effect on motor vehicle fatality rates: a Bayesian and classical econometric evaluation

ManuscriptThis paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is nonlinear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The model is evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence

Sturdy Inference: A Bayesian Analysis of U.S. Motorcycle Helmet Laws

Motorcycle related fatalities continue to be a major concern for public health officials, economists, and policy makers interested in such matters. In 2006, 3% of all motor vehicles registered in the United States were 2-3 wheelers (motorcycle type vehicles), while riders of these vehicles accounted for 11% of vehicle related deaths. Such a disproportionate number of fatalities associated with motorcycles is certainly grounds for concern.Most studies of motorcycle fatalities attribute deaths to the avoidance of wearing helmets and the lack of helmet laws, speed, and alcohol usage. This study makes use of a rich panel data set for the period 1980 to 2010 by state and the District of Columbia to examine these factors and others. It is the first study to differentiate between the effects of universal and partial helmet laws on motorcycle fatalities. It also accounts for the effects of cell phone use, alcohol consumption, and suicidal propensities on these crashes after adjusting for a whole host of socioeconomic and driving related factors. The analysis is conducted using a new Bayesian technique, which examines the sturdiness of regression coefficients. This new method uses statistics referred to as S-values that addresses both estimation and model ambiguity. Results indicate that the variables we focus on, i.e., cell phones, alcohol consumption, and helmet laws affect motorcycle fatalities. Further, universal helmet laws appear to have a larger effect on such fatalities than partial helmet laws

Riccati parameter modes from Newtonian free damping motion by supersymmetry

We determine the class of damped modes \tilde{y} which are related to the common free damping modes y by supersymmetry. They are obtained by employing the factorization of Newton's differential equation of motion for the free damped oscillator by means of the general solution of the corresponding Riccati equation together with Witten's method of constructing the supersymmetric partner operator. This procedure leads to one-parameter families of (transient) modes for each of the three types of free damping, corresponding to a particular type of %time-dependent angular frequency. %time-dependent, antirestoring acceleration (adding up to the usual Hooke restoring acceleration) of the form a(t)=\frac{2\gamma ^2}{(\gamma t+1)^{2}}\tilde{y}, where \gamma is the family parameter that has been chosen as the inverse of the Riccati integration constant. In supersymmetric terms, they represent all those one Riccati parameter damping modes having the same Newtonian free damping partner modeComment: 6 pages, twocolumn, 6 figures, only first 3 publishe

Hong-Ou-Mandel interferometer with cavities: theory

We study the number of coincidences in a Hong-Ou-Mandel interferometer exit whose arms have been supplemented with the addition of one or two optical cavities. The fourth-order correlation function at the beam-splitter exit is calculated. In the regime where the cavity length are larger than the one-photon coherence length, photon coalescence and anti-coalescence interference is observed. Feynman's path diagrams for the indistinguishable processes that lead to quantum interference are presented. As application for the Hong-Ou-Mandel interferometer with two cavities, it is discussed the construction of an optical XOR gate

Optical analog of Rabi oscillation suppression due to atomic motion

The Rabi oscillations of a two-level atom illuminated by a laser on resonance with the atomic transition may be suppressed by the atomic motion through averaging or filtering mechanisms. The optical analogs of these velocity effects are described. The two atomic levels correspond in the optical analogy to orthogonal polarizations of light and the Rabi oscillations to polarization oscillations in a medium which is optically active, naturally or due to a magnetic field. In the later case, the two orthogonal polarizations could be selected by choosing the orientation of the magnetic field, and one of them be filtered out. It is argued that the time-dependent optical polarization oscillations or their suppression are observable with current technology.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figure

Singularity-driven Second and Third Harmonic Generation in a {\epsilon}-near-zero nanolayer

We show a new path to {\epsilon}~0 materials without resorting to metal-based metamaterial composites. A medium that can be modeled using Lorentz oscillators usually displays {\epsilon}=0 crossing points, e.g. {\epsilon}=0 at {\lambda}~7{\mu}m and 20{\mu}m for SiO2 and CaF2, respectively. We show that a Lorentz medium yields a singularity-driven enhancement of the electric field followed by dramatic lowering of thresholds for a plethora of nonlinear optical phenomena. We illustrate the remarkable enhancement of second and third harmonic generation in a layer of {\epsilon}~0 material 20nm thick, and discuss the role of nonlinear surface sources

Inertial forces and the foundations of optical geometry

Assuming a general timelike congruence of worldlines as a reference frame, we derive a covariant general formalism of inertial forces in General Relativity. Inspired by the works of Abramowicz et. al. (see e.g. Abramowicz and Lasota, Class. Quantum Grav. 14 (1997) A23), we also study conformal rescalings of spacetime and investigate how these affect the inertial force formalism. While many ways of describing spatial curvature of a trajectory has been discussed in papers prior to this, one particular prescription (which differs from the standard projected curvature when the reference is shearing) appears novel. For the particular case of a hypersurface-forming congruence, using a suitable rescaling of spacetime, we show that a geodesic photon is always following a line that is spatially straight with respect to the new curvature measure. This fact is intimately connected to Fermat's principle, and allows for a certain generalization of the optical geometry as will be further pursued in a companion paper (Jonsson and Westman, Class. Quantum Grav. 23 (2006) 61). For the particular case when the shear-tensor vanishes, we present the inertial force equation in three-dimensional form (using the bold face vector notation), and note how similar it is to its Newtonian counterpart. From the spatial curvature measures that we introduce, we derive corresponding covariant differentiations of a vector defined along a spacetime trajectory. This allows us to connect the formalism of this paper to that of Jantzen et. al. (see e.g. Bini et. al., Int. J. Mod. Phys. D 6 (1997) 143).Comment: 42 pages, 7 figure

Atom laser dynamics in a tight-waveguide

We study the transient dynamics that arise during the formation of an atom laser beam in a tight waveguide. During the time evolution the density profile develops a series of wiggles which are related to the diffraction in time phenomenon. The apodization of matter waves, which relies on the use of smooth aperture functions, allows to suppress such oscillations in a time interval, after which there is a revival of the diffraction in time. The revival time scale is directly related to the inverse of the harmonic trap frequency for the atom reservoir.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures, to be published in the Proceedings of the 395th WE-Heraeus Seminar on "Time Dependent Phenomena in Quantum Mechanics ", organized by T. Kramer and M. Kleber (Blaubeuren, Germany, September 2007