The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?

In this article, using a Taylor type rule, I focus on the Euro era and compare the ECB with other two central banks, the Fed and the Bank of England. A very interesting result comes out from the analysis: it seems that these central banks do not observe the inflation course before deciding on the variation of the interest rates. This result can be linked to two ideas: firstly, the use of stationary time series drops out the significance of the inflation gap; secondly, a really forward looking central bank focuses on other macroeconomic leading indicators instead of examining the inflation gap.Taylor rule, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England.

Some empirical evidence of the euro area monetary policy

In this paper I try to find some empirical evidence of the European Central Bank’s behaviour from its outset, January 1999, to the mid 2007, using a Taylor-type rule. I test a new and simple method for estimating the output gap in order to avoid problems linked with the estimate of the potential output. Moreover, I analyse the significance of some explanatory variables in order to understand what the basis of the E.C.B. monetary policy decisions are. Finally, I find an important evidence of the role of the Euro-Dollar nominal exchange rate in the conduct of the Euro Area monetary policy.Taylor Rule, European Central Bank, Euro-Dollar exchange rate

Italy after the crisis: a case of recoveryless credit growth

In this study I compare the credit condition with the economic growth in Italy from January 2007 onward. Starting from the literature on the creditless recovery, I highlight the specific features of the Italian situation in which, notwithstanding the prolonged and deep economic crisis, the credit has persistently continued to grow. A comparison with the German case confirms the peculiar characteristics of the Italian condition. An econometric study supports this idea and, in order to depict this Italian economic situation, I propose a new expression: the recoveryless credit growth.Italy; credit; recovery

The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market

In this paper I present a statistical analysis of some macroeconomic data that can shed more light on the causes of the low inflation rate that we registered in the Euro area during the last years. I focus on both the globalization and the labour market for their importance, as external and internal factor respectively, in influencing the domestic inflation. The main finding of this study, in which I also present an international comparison, is that the firms’ behaviour can help explain the stable trend of the inflation rate in the Euro area. This result can be interpreted as a signal of the redistribution, in favour of the firms, of the positive features of the globalization processInflation rate; Euro area; Exchange rate; Labour cost

The International Financial Crisis: an Expert Survey

The advent of the international financial crisis, and of its effects on the economy, all the world now face the question how to manage the crisis and what measures to implement to restore a normal condition. In this paper we present and discuss the results and implications of an international expert survey. Our target is to understand the perception with regards to several aspects of the international financial crisis and some possible future implications for policy makers’ authorities.international financial crisis; subprime; expert survey

Multivariate regression smoothing through the 'fallling net'.

We consider multivariate regression smoothing through a conditional mean shift procedure. By computing local conditional means iteratively over a set or grid of target points, at each iteration a `net' is formed which gently drifts towards the data cloud, until it settles at the conditional modes of the response distribution. The method is edge-preserving and allows for multi-valued response

The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis

In this paper I analyse the pass-through effect in four big areas using different approaches. On the one hand, I inspect this issue comparing the REER (real effective exchange rate) with the WARP (weighted average relative price) in the US, the UK, Japan and the Euro area. On the other hand, I try to support the findings of the first part with a double econometric analysis: I employ single equation and Var approaches in order to provide wide and robust results. The global conclusion is that in the major economies of the world the pass-through effect has been very light from January 1999 onward and that, especially in the Euro area, this result is linked with the firms behaviour

Monetary policy transmission in a high inflation environment: a view from the past

This paper describes the transmission of the monetary policy impulses to banking interest rates in Italy from the late 1960s to the mid-1980s. The study introduces three main novelties: firstly, the use of a completely new database sourced from original papers of that period; secondly, an analysis of the monetary policy transmission for interest rates on eight different types of loans and on loans to sixteen productive sectors; thirdly, the study of monetary policy transmission to regional and provincial interest rates on loans. This comprehensive study provides further awareness into the monetary policy transmission during a period of high inflation and offers valuable insights for the present

Some empirical evidence of the euro area monetary policy

In this paper I try to find some empirical evidence of the European Central Bank’s behaviour from its outset, January 1999, to the mid 2007, using a Taylor-type rule. I test a new and simple method for estimating the output gap in order to avoid problems linked with the estimate of the potential output. Moreover, I analyse the significance of some explanatory variables in order to understand what the basis of the E.C.B. monetary policy decisions are. Finally, I find an important evidence of the role of the Euro-Dollar nominal exchange rate in the conduct of the Euro Area monetary policy