Study to show the effect of a program of apparatus work on individual physical fitness: and a correlation of the physical fitness index and the scholastic ratings of twenty freshmen and twenty upper classmen at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Thesis (M.A.)--Boston University This item was digitized by the Internet Archive

Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2–5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global action to reduce air pollutant emissions is needed to make sure that ozone damage in Europe decreases towards the middle of this century

Estimating Net Primary Productivity under Climate Change by Application of Global Forest Model (G4M)

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of the forest is highlighted as a key sector for mitigating climate change. The objective of this research is to estimate changes on the net primary productivity of forest in South Korea under the different climate change scenarios. The G4M (Global Forest Model) was used to estimate current NPP and future NPP trends in different climate scenarios. As input data, we used detailed (1 km × 1 km) downscaled monthly precipitation and average temperature from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios (2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5). We used MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NPP data for the model validation. Current NPP derived from G4M showed similar patterns with MODIS NPP data. Total NPP of forest increased in most of RCP scenarios except RCP 8.5 scenario because the average temperature increased by 5°C. In addition, the standard deviation of annual precipitation was the highest in RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation change in wider range could cause water stress on vegetation that affects decrease of forest productivity. We calculated future NPP change in different climate change scenarios to estimate carbon sequestration in forest ecosystem. If there was no biome changes in the future NPP will be decreased up to 90%. On the other hand, if proper biome change will be conducted, future NPP will be increased 50% according to scenarios

Modeling stand-level mortality based on maximum stem number and seasonal temperature

Mortality is a key process in forest stand dynamics. However, tree mortality is not well understood, particularly in relation to climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to: (i) determine the patterns of maximum stem number per ha (MSN) over dominant tree height from 5-year remeasurements of the permanent sample plots for temperate forests [Red pine (Pinus densiflora), Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Chinese cork oak (Quercus variabilis), and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica)] using Sterba’s theory and Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI) data, (ii) develop a stand-level mortality (self-thinning) model using the MSN curve, and (iii) assess the impact of temperature on tree mortality in semi-variogram and linear regression models. The MSN curve represents the upper boundary of observed stem numbers per ha. The developed mortality model with our results showed a high degree of reliability (R2 = 0.55–0.81) and no obvious dependencies or patterns in residuals. However, spatial autocorrelation was detected from residuals of coniferous species (Red pine, Japanese larch and Korean pine), but not for oak species (Chinese cork oak and Mongolian oak). Based on the linear regression analysis of residuals, we found that the mortality of coniferous forests tended to increase with the rising seasonal temperature. This is more evident during winter and spring months. Conversely, oak mortality did not significantly vary with increasing temperature. These findings indicate that enhanced tree mortality due to rising temperatures in response to climate change is possible, especially in coniferous forests, and is expected to contribute to forest management decisions

Differences in proliferation rate between CADASIL and control vascular smooth muscle cells are related to increased TGF beta expression

Cerebral autosomal-dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) is a familial fatal progressive degenerative disorder. One of the pathological hallmarks of CADASIL is a dramatic reduction of vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) in cerebral arteries. Using VSMCs from the vasculature of the human umbilical cord, placenta and cerebrum of CADASIL patients, we found that CADASIL VSMCs had a lower proliferation rate compared to control VSMCs. Exposure of control VSMCs and endothelial cells (ECs) to media derived from CADASIL VSMCs lowered the proliferation rate of all cells examined. By quantitative RT-PCR analysis, we observed increased Transforming growth factor-beta (TGF beta) gene expression in CADASIL VSMCs. Adding TGF beta-neutralizing antibody restored the proliferation rate of CADASIL VSMCs. We assessed proliferation differences in the presence or absence of TGF beta-neutralizing antibody in ECs co-cultured with VSMCs. ECs co-cultured with CADASIL VSMCs exhibited a lower proliferation rate than those co-cultured with control VSMCs, and neutralization of TGF beta normalized the proliferation rate of ECs co-cultured with CADASIL VSMCs. We suggest that increased TGF beta expression in CADASIL VSMCs is involved in the reduced VSMC proliferation in CADASIL and may play a role in situ in altered proliferation of neighbouring cells in the vasculature.Peer reviewe

Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation

Potential scenarios for the forest bioeconomy are heavily reliant on price assumptions; in particular, any abrupt changes in prices have a profound impact the relevancy of any sector analysis. The objective of this paper was to demonstrate a new forest sector approach for incorporating price uncertainties in order to improve our assessment of investment decision making alternatives. Methodologically, we linked a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (mGARCH (1,1)) with three global land use scenarios that are of strategic importance to the forest bioeconomy. The three scenarios were formulated as i) a business as usual scenario, ii) a high biomass usage scenario and iii) a no-growth scenario. Our results indicate an upward trend in prices over time for all three scenarios and for most woody biomass commodities. Under all scenarios, price volatility in the forest sector would be smaller than that for the fossil fuel energy (i.e. oil and natural gas). Price volatilities from fossil fuel markets are positively influencing woody biomass price volatility and positively influencing pulp volatility. These results are discussed in the context of a case study describing investment alternatives for a district heating facility with options for: woody biomass, natural gas, or heating oil

Mutation screening of patients with Alzheimer disease identifies APP locus duplication in a Swedish patient

BACKGROUND: Missense mutations in three different genes encoding amyloid-β precursor protein, presenilin 1 and presenilin 2 are recognized to cause familial early-onset Alzheimer disease. Also duplications of the amyloid precursor protein gene have been shown to cause the disease. At the Dept. of Geriatric Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, patients are referred for mutation screening for the identification of nucleotide variations and for determining copy-number of the APP locus. METHODS: We combined the method of microsatellite marker genotyping with a quantitative real-time PCR analysis to detect duplications in patients with Alzheimer disease. RESULTS: In 22 DNA samples from individuals diagnosed with clinical Alzheimer disease, we identified one patient carrying a duplication on chromosome 21 which included the APP locus. Further mapping of the chromosomal region by array-comparative genome hybridization showed that the duplication spanned a maximal region of 1.09 Mb. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of an APP duplication in a Swedish Alzheimer patient and describes the use of quantitative real-time PCR as a tool for determining copy-number of the APP locus

Policy guidance and pitfalls aligning IPCC scenarios to national land emissions inventories

Taking stock of global progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement requires measuring aggregate national action against modelled mitigation pathways. Because of differences in how land-based carbon removals are defined, scientific sources report higher global carbon emissions than national emissions inventories, a gap which will evolve in the future. We establish a first estimate aligning IPCC-assessed pathways with inventories using a climate model to explicitly include indirect carbon removal dynamics on land area reported as managed for by countries. After alignment, we find that key global mitigation benchmarks can appear more ambitious when considering this extra land sink, though changes vary amongst world regions and temperature outcomes. Our results highlight the need to enhance communication between scientific and policy communities to enable more robust alignment in the future

Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks

Global mitigation pathways play a critical role in informing climate policies and targets that are in line with international climate goals. However, it is not possible to directly compare modelled results with national inventories used to assess progress under the UNFCCC due to differences in how land-based fluxes are accounted for. National inventories consider carbon flux on managed land using an area-based approach with managed land-areas determined by nations. Emissions scenarios consider a different managed land area and are calibrated against data from detailed global carbon cycle models that account for natural (indirect) and anthropogenic (direct) fluxes separately by design. To disentangle the direct and indirect components of land-based carbon fluxes, we use a reduced complexity climate model with explicit treatment of the land-use sector, OSCAR, one of the models used by the Global Carbon Project. We find the discrepancy between model and NGHGI-based accounting methods globally to be 4.4 ± 1.0 Gt CO2 yr-1 averaged over the 2000-2020 time period, which is in line with existing estimates. We then apply OSCAR to the set of pathways assessed by the IPCC to quantify how this gap evolves over time and estimate how key mitigation benchmarks change. Across both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios, LULUCF emissions pathways aligned with NGHGI accounting practices show a strong increase in the total land sink until around mid-century. However, the ‘NGHGI alignment gap’ decreases over this period, converging in the 2050-2060s for 1.5°C scenarios and 2070s-2080s for 2°C scenarios. The convergence is primarily a result of the simulated stabilization and then decrease of the CO2-fertilization effect as well as background climate warming reducing the overall effectiveness of the land sink, which in turn reduces the indirect removals considered by NGHGIs. These dynamics lead to land-based emissions reversing their downward trend in most NGHGI-aligned scenarios by mid-century, and result in the LULUCF sector becoming a net-source of emissions by 2100 in about 25% of both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. Assessing emission pathways using LULUCF definitions from national inventory accounting results in downward revisions to emissions benchmarks derived from scenarios. NGHGI-aligned pathways result in earlier net-zero CO2 emissions by around 2-5 years for both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios, and 2030 emission reductions relative to 2020 are enhanced by about 5 percentage points for both pathway categories. When incorporating the additional land removals considered by NGHGIs, the assessed cumulative net CO2 emissions to global net-zero CO2 also decreases systematically by 15-18% for both 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios. We find that increasing removals from direct fluxes in 1.5C scenarios overtake estimated removals using NGHGI conventions in the near term. However, by midcentury, the strengthening of direct removals is balanced by weakening of indirect removals, meaning that, on average, carbon removal on land accounted for using NGHGI conventions in 1.5C scenarios results in about half of the LULUCF removals in current policy scenarios