Ricardian Equivalence Proposition in a NK DSGE Model for two Large Economies: The EU and the US

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of active fiscal policy management coupled with a monetary policy that follows the Taylor principle. The objective is to investigate the relevance of the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition (REP) in a framework where two large open economies interact and a fraction of the consumers is financially constrained. According to an estimated vector autoregressive model, a positive shock in government expenditure leads to an increase in private consumption (at odds with the permanent income hypothesis). The channels are studied in a fully microfounded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model economy calibrated for the Euro Area (EU-12) and for the United States. The crucial parameter that drives the break of the REP is the share of financially constrained consumers. Firms produce tradable varieties in a monopolistic competition framework and pricing is à la Calvo, which leads to nominal price stickiness. Labor varieties are immobile across countries and are demanded in an aggregated fashion by firms. Fiscal policy is specified as a time-consistent rule. We simulate through impulseresponse functions parameterizations that yield results consistent with the REP, and estimate a subset of deep parameters employing Bayesian techniques.

Sectoral productivity and spillover effects of FDI in Latin America

Empirical studies analysing productivity effects of inward FDI in Latin America (LA) are inconclusive. We argue that investigating aggregate FDI masks interesting effects of FDI that take place within and across sectors. Moreover, the potential of FDI to generate productivity effects differs across sectors. For these reasons and because sectoral FDI intensities vary significantly among LA countries and change over time, we investigate the productivity effects of FDI in eight different sectors including the primary sector, manufacturing and services. Besides FDI, sector-specific institutional factors, education and a sector‘s export share are considered as control variables. Given the likely endogeneity of variables, a GMM system estimation approach is used. The results indicate that positive productivity effects can be found in all sectors, although they may depend on specific conditions or are limited to a certain time period. Direct productivity effects are highest in the primary sector (agriculture, mining and petroleum production) and in financial services. In contrast, FDI in manufacturing and in transport and telecommunications generates productivity spillovers to nearly all other sectors.FDI, productivity, sector level, Latin America

Animal spirits : ¿qué significa en Keynes, y antes y después de Keynes?

Se plantea de modo panorámico el recorrido y el alcance de la expresión animal spirits (espíritus animales), que fue introducida por John M. Keynes en la economía en 1936 para referirse al “optimismo espontáneo" de los hombres de negocios, el cual influye en el nivel y el ritmo de la inversión. La novedad en ese momento no fue incluir ese aspecto conductual (que casi todos habían considerado antes, y muy explícitamente Marshall y Schumpeter), sino la propia expresión. Esta, sin embargo, tiene una larga historia en la ciencia y la filosofía, desde Galeno a Descartes y Hume; y también en el uso corriente durante varios siglos. Después de Keynes, animal spirits se usa en economía para evocar los matices sociales y emocionales del comportamiento, vinculados a la confianza y las expectativas autocumplidas. Durante bastante tiempo, animal spirits queda sólo como una expresión relativamente ambigua que se usa de vez en cuando, y sin demasiada insistencia. George Akerlof y Robert Shiller, en su libro publicado en 2009 (que se titula, justamente, Animal Spirits), de algún modo cambian esto, ya que consideran que la expresión es un equivalente genérico del “papel de la psicología humana en la economía". En su bosquejo de una macroeconomía conductual explotan las muchas connotaciones que puede tener la expresión. El énfasis que ponen en ella, y el carácter multifacético de su planteo, requiere una reflexión acerca de las precauciones para su uso prudente (al estilo del prospecto de un medicamento); que es justamente lo que en ese libro falta.Fil: Fornero, Ricardo A.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Económica

El sendero del acierto y la avenida del error : cinco puntos de error de decisión, sus combinaciones y consecuencias

Fil: Fornero, Ricardo A.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Económica

Las tasas de rentabilidad modificadas y la controversia en torno al supuesto implícito de reinversión en van y tir

Fil: Fornero, Ricardo A.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Económica

Sectoral productivity and spillover effects of FDI in Latin America

Empirical studies analysing productivity effects of inward FDI in Latin America (LA) are inconclusive. We argue that investigating aggregate FDI masks interesting effects of FDI that take place within and across sectors. Moreover, the potential of FDI to generate productivity effects differs across sectors. For these reasons and because sectoral FDI intensities vary significantly among LA countries and change over time, we investigate the productivity effects of FDI in eight different sectors including the primary sector, manufacturing and services. Besides FDI, sector-specific institutional factors, education and a sectors export share are considered as control variables. Given the likely endogeneity of variables, a GMM system estimation approach is used. The results indicate that positive productivity effects can be found in all sectors, although they may depend on specific conditions or are limited to a certain time period. Direct productivity effects are highest in the primary sector (agriculture, mining and petroleum production) and in financial services. In contrast, FDI in manufacturing and in transport and telecommunications generates productivity spillovers to nearly all other sectors

An Estimated DSGE Model of Austria, the Euro Area and the U.S.: Some Welfare Implications of EMU

We build a fully micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which is estimated employing Bayesian methods. The model captures the most salient features of Austria as a small open economy, the Euro Area (EA) and the United States (U.S.). Further analysis is conducted through numerical simulations to examine how nominal and real shocks are propagated. Besides, welfare costs of nominal rigidities are calculated. We distinguish two sample periods, ‘pre-EMU’ and ‘EMU’. In the former, we maintain the assumption of full commitment of respective (independent) Central Banks towards their monetary rules, whereas in the latter, the monetary policy of Austria is fully aligned with the European Central Bank. Main results are derived from Bayesian estimation and simulation of the estimated model. Welfare calculations from the estimated model suggest that in the pre-EMU period, the EA and Austria present welfare costs close to one percent of steady-state consumption, whereas the U.S. welfare costs is slightly higher (-1.52 percent). As it would be expected, in the second subsample, welfare costs in the EA decrease, indicating an improvement in the allocation during the EMU regime (similarly in the U.S.), whereas in Austria welfare costs go up.Monetary Policy, NOEM, DSGE models, Austria, EURO area, U.S.

Non-Ricardian Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Chile

This paper examines non-Ricardian effects of government spending shocks in the Chilean economy. We first provide evidence on those effects based on vector autoregressions. We then show that such evidence can be accounted for by a model that features: (i) a sizeable share of non-Ricardian households (i.e. households which do not make use of financial markets and just consume their current labor income); (ii) nominal price and wage rigidities; (iii) an inflation targeting scheme and (iv) a structural balance fiscal rule that reflects the particular Chilean fiscal rule. The model is estimated employing Bayesian techniques. Finally, we use model simulations to demonstrate the countercyclical effects of the Chilean fiscal rule as compared with a zero-deficit rule.

Livros didáticos e outros materiais escritos no Colégio Técnico da UFMG (1969-1997)

Este artigo aborda o uso de livros didáticos e outros materiais escritos nas práticas dos professores de Matemática do Colégio Técnico da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais no período 1969-1997. O trabalho resulta de uma pesquisa fundamentada na metodologia da História Oral, com a realização de 16 entrevistas com antigos professores e alunos da escola. Os depoimentos dos professores minimizaram o papel dos livros em suas práticas, acentuando a sua própria produção de materiais escritos, com destaque para estudos dirigidos e instruções programadas para as aulas. Os testemunhos dos alunos se referiram à pouca frequência de aulas expositivas decorrente do uso desses materiais e em geral não enfatizaram o uso de livros. Entretanto, a análise das narrativas revelou que os livros didáticos estiveram muito presentes nas práticas desenvolvidas na escola, por serem essenciais à preparação e à realização dos estudos dirigidos