Tackling complexity using interlinked thinking : well-being as a case study : a dissertation presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Ecological Economics at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

The world today is made up of a series of highly interconnected complex systems characterised by uncertainty. Human minds struggle with complexity, and the tools available to help us are limited. This often leads to reductionism, focusing on the parts rather than the whole. Working with individual parts ignores the dynamics that result from interdependencies between components. It is these interactions that determine the behaviour we experience in real world situations. This dissertation presents ‘interlinked thinking’ as a communication and analytical approach to help people work with, rather than ignore, complexity. It aims to build understanding of feedbacks loops and systems in a way that does not require expert modelling skills. It is a participatory process that allows people not familiar with systems thinking to have a structured dialogue on how components interrelate, and share their mental models. Links between components are debated and decided on in a workshop session. The resultant causal loop diagrams are transcribed to a matrix and an algorithm run to analyse the links in the system. The interlinked thinking method was tested using three case studies to answer the principal research question: Does understanding the relationships between indicators add value and progress sustainable well-being? Well-being is multi-dimensional, and the complex behaviour of the well-being system does not come from individual indicators but from the interrelationships between indicators and resultant feedback loops. Participants who applied interlinked thinking confirmed value was gained from: (1) increased understanding of the indicators in the system; (2) more visible relationships; (3) expanding the toolkit to work with complexity; (4) an increased ability to bring important issues to the attention of decision-makers; (5) consideration of intervention impacts; and (6) encouraging integrated thinking. Interlinked thinking can be replicated and used in any situation where having a better understanding of interconnectedness is important but time, resources, and modelling skills are limited. Key words: interlinked thinking; systems thinking; sustainable well-being; causal loop diagrams; complexity; interconnected; feedback loops; mental mode

Price effects of an emissions trading scheme in New Zealand

Implementation of a New Zealand Emission Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) will begin in 2008, beginning with forestry, subsequently including energy and industrial emissions, and finally, agricultural GHGs from 2013. Reducing agricultural emissions is a major challenge for New Zealand as they account for over half its total GHG emissions. On the other hand, agriculture is critical to the economy, with its basic and processed products accounting for a third of exports. We use an environmental input-output model to analyse direct and indirect cost impacts of emissions pricing on food and fibre sectors. At NZ $25/t CO₂-eq, costs of energy-related emissions on the food and fibre sectors are very small; however, costs of agricultural emissions post 2013 would substantially impact on sheep, beef and dairy farming. Costeffective mitigation measures and land use changes should help reduce micro- and macroeconomic impacts, but the latter may also risk 'emissions leakage'.emissions trading, input-output price model, agricultural greenhouse gases, Demand and Price Analysis, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Exploring the degrees of distortion in simulated human bite marks

The properties of the skin and the posture of the body during photographic recording are factors that cause distortion in the bite mark injury. This study aimed to explore the degree of distortion between a ‘touch mark’ (method 1) and a ‘bite mark’ (method 2) on the left upper arm at three different positions (arm relaxed; arm flexed in two different positions). A pair of dental casts with biting edges coated in ink was used to create a mark in 30 subjects (6 ♂, 24 ♀) aged 20-50 years old. Photographs were taken using a Nikon DX digital camera (D5000). The mesiodistal widths and angle of rotations of both upper right central incisor and lower right central incisor and the inter-canine distances were analysed and compared with the true measurements using Adobe Photoshop CC 2017. Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS Statistics 22 applying a 2 (mark type) x 3 (position) repeated measures ANOVA. For all measures studied there was a statistically significant difference between mark types and positions. In the case of bite marks, a great degree of distortion was detected, and this increased further when changing the position of the arm. The findings demonstrated that skin properties and posture influence distortion. This could lead to inaccurate measurements and misleading pattern interpretation of bite mark injuries

Parenteral and oral antibiotic duration for treatment of pediatric osteomyelitis: a systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND: Pediatric osteomyelitis is a bacterial infection of bones requiring prolonged antibiotic treatment using parenteral followed by enteral agents. Major complications of pediatric osteomyelitis include transition to chronic osteomyelitis, formation of subperiosteal abscesses, extension of infection into the joint, and permanent bony deformity or limb shortening. Historically, osteomyelitis has been treated with long durations of antibiotics to avoid these complications. However, with improvements in management and antibiotic treatment, standard of care is moving towards short durations of intravenous antibiotics prior to enteral antibiotics. METHODS/DESIGN: The authors will perform a systematic review based on PRISMA guidelines in order to evaluate the literature, looking for evidence to support the optimal duration of parenteral and enteral therapy. The main goals are to see if literature supports shorter durations of either parenteral antibiotics and/or enteral antibiotics. Multiple databases will be investigated using a thorough search strategy. Databases include Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Dissertation Abstracts, CINAHL, Web of Science, African Index Medicus and LILACS. Search stream will include medical subject heading for pediatric patients with osteomyelitis and antibiotic therapy. We will search for published or unpublished randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials. Two authors will independently select articles, extract data and assess risk of bias by standard Cochrane methodologies. We will analyze comparisons between dichotomous outcomes using risk ratios and continuous outcomes using mean differences. 95% confidence intervals will be computed. DISCUSSION: One of the major dilemmas of management of this disease is the duration of parenteral therapy. Long parenteral therapy has increased risk of serious complications and the necessity for long therapy has been called into question. Our study aims to review the currently available evidence from randomized trials regarding duration of both parenteral and oral therapy for pediatric acute osteomyelitis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CRD4201300232

High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a

Work Left Undone: Emancipation was not Abolition

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El Derecho A Amar (The Right to Love): Same-Sex Relationships in Spain and El Salvador

This paper explores the treatment of same-sex marriage in , the first Spanish-speaking country to allow such unions, and , a country yet to permit gay marriage. Attributing this difference to various political, legal, and social circumstances in the two countries, the paper makes the case for legalization in El Salvador through an analysis of fundamental human rights in international and regional human rights instruments

El Derecho A Amar (The Right to Love): Same-Sex Relationships in Spain and El Salvador

This paper explores the treatment of same-sex marriage in , the first Spanish-speaking country to allow such unions, and , a country yet to permit gay marriage. Attributing this difference to various political, legal, and social circumstances in the two countries, the paper makes the case for legalization in El Salvador through an analysis of fundamental human rights in international and regional human rights instruments