The practical application of an enhanced conveyance calculation in flood prediction

An enhanced one-dimensional mathematical model for simulating flood levels and calculating stage-discharge relationships is presented. Enhanced conveyance subroutines have been developed and incorporated into the commercially available river modelling software ISIS. The newly developed software has been verified using experimental and field data. When a river overtops its banks there is a vigorous interaction between slow moving flood plain flow and faster moving main channel flow. This interaction mechanism has been the focus of intense research over the past forty years. A selective review of this research is detailed with particular attention to the case of meandering channels. The Ackers Method and the James and Wark Method are two discharge capacity methods that have emanated from this recent research and are considered to be the most practically suitable methods and are indeed recommended by the Environment Agency of England and Wales. The methods account for interaction effects when flow is overbank in a straight and meandering channel respectively. It is these methods that have been incorporated into the commercially available and industry leading one-dimensional river model ISIS to enable an enhanced conveyance calculation. The newly developed software has been tested against the Flood Channel Facility Series A and B experiments to a satisfactory level of accuracy. The testing included predicted of stage discharge relationships and water level prediction. In addition it has been applied to the River Dane in Cheshire which is highly meandering and suited to the James and Wark methodology. This was intended to give practical advice concerning the use of the James and Wark Method and the degree of accuracy in estimating the 'channel parameters' which are required by this method. The results of this work showed that a significant rise in water level prediction is obtained when using the enhanced code. Also, it was clear that a high degree of accuracy was not required in estimating the 'channel parameters' with the possible exception of the sinuosity term

Xanthine oxidase inhibition and white matter hyperintensity progression following ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack (XILO-FIST): a multicentre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Acknowledgments This work was supported by the Stroke Association and British Heart Foundation [grant number TSA BHF 2013/01]. The work of Dr David Dickie and Dr Terry Quinn is funded by the Stroke Association. We would like to thank Christine McAlpine, Ruth Graham, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, UK; Lauren Pearce, Royal United Hospital, UK; Caroline Fornolles, Louise Tate, Frances Justin, Luton and Dunstable University Hospital, UK; Dean Waugh, Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, UK; Donal Concannon, Altnagelvin Hospital, UK; Sharon Tysoe, Nina Francia, Nisha Menon, Raji Prabakaran, Southend University Hospital, UK; Amy Ashton, Caroline Watchurst, Marilena Marinescu, Sabaa Obarey, Scheherazade Feerick, University College London NHS Foundation Trust, UK; and Janice Irvine, Sandra Williams, and German Guzman Gutierrez, Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, UK; Caroline Fox and Joanne Topliffe, Broomfield Hospital, Essex, UK.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Xanthine oxidase inhibition and white matter hyperintensity progression following ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack (XILO-FIST): a multicentre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background: People who experience an ischaemic stroke are at risk of recurrent vascular events, progression of cerebrovascular disease, and cognitive decline. We assessed whether allopurinol, a xanthine oxidase inhibitor, reduced white matter hyperintensity (WMH) progression and blood pressure (BP) following ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA). Methods: In this multicentre, prospective, randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial conducted in 22 stroke units in the United Kingdom, we randomly assigned participants within 30-days of ischaemic stroke or TIA to receive oral allopurinol 300 mg twice daily or placebo for 104 weeks. All participants had brain MRI performed at baseline and week 104 and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring at baseline, week 4 and week 104. The primary outcome was the WMH Rotterdam Progression Score (RPS) at week 104. Analyses were by intention to treat. Participants who received at least one dose of allopurinol or placebo were included in the safety analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02122718. Findings: Between 25th May 2015 and the 29th November 2018, 464 participants were enrolled (232 per group). A total of 372 (189 with placebo and 183 with allopurinol) attended for week 104 MRI and were included in analysis of the primary outcome. The RPS at week 104 was 1.3 (SD 1.8) with allopurinol and 1.5 (SD 1.9) with placebo (between group difference −0.17, 95% CI −0.52 to 0.17, p = 0.33). Serious adverse events were reported in 73 (32%) participants with allopurinol and in 64 (28%) with placebo. There was one potentially treatment related death in the allopurinol group. Interpretation: Allopurinol use did not reduce WMH progression in people with recent ischaemic stroke or TIA and is unlikely to reduce the risk of stroke in unselected people. Funding: The British Heart Foundation and the UK Stroke Association

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Elevation of serum sex hormone-binding globulin in females with fulminant hepatitis B virus infection

Amongst adults exposed to the hepatitis B virus (HBV), the infection pursues a fulminant course more frequently in females, while conversely a chronic carrier state is more frequent in males. Because of these differences in sex ratio, we investigated the relationship between the outcome of HBV infection and serum concentrations of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), a circulating glycoprotein that exerts an important influence on the balance of free sex hormones. SHBG levels were significantly elevated in females with fulminant HBV infection compared to females with either uncomplicated acute or chronic HBV infection (P less than .05 and P less than .001, respectively). That this was not a nonspecific effect of fulminant hepatitis was confirmed by the significantly higher levels in this group than in age-matched females with fulminant hepatitis unrelated to HBV (P less than .05). In contrast, four of 15 female HBsAg carriers had SHBG values in the male range, and these included three of four patients who had acquired HBV as adults. SHBG levels were normal in all male groups. These results suggested that for adults the hormonal environment may be important in determining the course of HBV infection

The long-term mental health impact of peacekeeping:Prevalence and predictors of psychiatric disorder

BACKGROUND: The mental health outcomes of military personnel deployed on peacekeeping missions have been relatively neglected in the military mental health literature. AIMS: To assess the mental health impacts of peacekeeping deployments. METHOD: In total, 1025 Australian peacekeepers were assessed for current and lifetime psychiatric diagnoses, service history and exposure to potentially traumatic events (PTEs). A matched Australian community sample was used as a comparator. Univariate and regression analyses were conducted to explore predictors of psychiatric diagnosis. RESULTS: Peacekeepers had significantly higher 12-month prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (16.8%), major depressive episode (7%), generalised anxiety disorder (4.7%), alcohol misuse (12%), alcohol dependence (11.3%) and suicidal ideation (10.7%) when compared with the civilian comparator. The presence of these psychiatric disorders was most strongly and consistently associated with exposure to PTEs. CONCLUSIONS: Veteran peacekeepers had significant levels of psychiatric morbidity. Their needs, alongside those of combat veterans, should be recognised within military mental health initiatives. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None. COPYRIGHT AND USAGE: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence

Failure of insulin and glucagon infusion to stimulate liver regeneration in fulminant hepatic failure

A randomised controlled trial of insulin and glucagon infusion was carried out in 18 patients in grade III or IV coma from fulminant hepatic failure due to viral or drug-induced hepatic necrosis to see whether mortality could be reduced by stimulating hepatic regeneration. Nine patients received a continuous infusion of insulin 3 U/h and glucagon 200 micrograms/h made up in 5% dextrose containing 1% human albumin solution (HAS) while controls received 5% dextrose and HAS alone. Baseline plasma insulin and glucagon levels were comparably raised in both groups and, on infusion, rose significantly higher in the insulin- and glucagon-treated patients compared to controls. Two control and one treated patient recovered. Median survival time from enrolment to death was similar for insulin- and glucagon-treated patients and controls--2 and 3 days, respectively. Insulin and glucagon therapy did not enhance hepatic synthetic function, as measured by a fall in prothrombin time or a rise in alpha-fetoprotein; nor did it stimulate hepatic regeneration, only one patient in each group showed histological evidence of hepatic regeneration at post-mortem

Thiopental infusion in the treatment of intracranial hypertension complicating fulminant hepatic failure

Intracranial hypertension complicating fulminant hepatic failure has a mortality in excess of 90% in the presence of renal failure if not rapidly responsive to mannitol and ultrafiltration. Based on data which suggest that barbiturates can be of value in controlling the intracranial hypertension of head injury, intravenous thiopental was assessed in 13 patients with fulminant hepatic failure. All had developed acute renal failure complicated by intracranial hypertension unresponsive to other modes of therapy and were likely by all published criteria to have little chance of survival. The dosage of thiopental was adjusted incrementally until intracranial pressure, measured by extradural transducers, fell to within normal limits or adverse hemodynamic changes occurred. The intracranial pressure was reduced, in each case, by 185 to 500 mg (median: 250 mg) thiopental given over 15 min, and in eight cases continuing infusion achieved stable normal intracranial pressure and cerebral perfusion pressure. Five of the patients made a complete recovery and there were only three deaths from intracranial hypertension. Side effects were few and included minor hypotension controlled by dose reduction. The response of otherwise intractable intracranial hypertension and the 38% survival rate was remarkable for a group of patients with such a poor prognosis