Field experiments in retailing

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 75-81).This dissertation consists of two essays on tactical issues in retailing. The first essay compares the price sensitivity of private label and national brand products. A large-scale field experiment shows that private label demand is less price sensitive than national brand demand. The estimates from the experimental study are then compared with estimates using the same retailer's transaction history. This allows the evaluation of several methods for controlling for the endogeneity of prices in non-experimental studies. Measuring price sensitivity in the historical data without accounting for endogeneity performs poorly. Instrumental variables estimates with commodity prices as instruments and regression discontinuity estimates also differ from the experimental benchmark. However, estimates using wholesale prices as an instrument closely replicate the experimental estimates. These findings indicate that the wholesale price is an effective instrument for retail price. The second essay shows how targeted offers can affect customer search activity. It has become common practice for retailers to personalize direct marketing offers based on customer transaction histories. Targeted email offers featuring products similar to a customer's previous purchases generate higher response rates, but also have the potential to affect customer search behavior. A closely matched offer may encourage a customer to start the search process, leading to increased search activity. Alternatively, providing customers with closely matched offers may weaken their incentives to search beyond the targeted items. In a field experiment using email offers sent by an online wine retailer, targeted offers result in less search activity on the retailer's website. In a second study, transaction data from an online ticket exchange shows that, after receiving targeted offers, customers are less likely to broaden their purchasing to new genres. These findings indicate that targeted offers carry a hidden cost: a decrease in customer exploration and discovery.by Nathan Minsheng Fong.Ph.D

A new and unusual LBV-like outburst from a Wolf–Rayet star in the outskirts of M33

MCA-1B (also called UIT003) is a luminous hot star in the western outskirts of M33, classified over 20 yr ago with a spectral type of Ofpe/WN9 and identified then as a candidate luminous blue variable (LBV). Palomar Transient Factory data reveal that this star brightened in 2010, with a light curve resembling that of the classic LBV star AF And in M31. Other Ofpe/WN9 stars have erupted as LBVs, but MCA-1B was unusual because it remained hot. It showed a WN-type spectrum throughout its eruption, whereas LBVs usually get much cooler. MCA-1B showed an almost four-fold increase in bolometric luminosity and a doubling of its radius, but its temperature stayed ≳29 kK. As it faded, it shifted to even hotter temperatures, exhibiting a WN7/WN8-type spectrum, and doubling its wind speed. MCA-1B is reminiscent of some supernova impostors, and its location resembles the isolated environment of SN 2009ip. It is most similar to HD 5980 (in the Small Magellanic Cloud) and GR 290 (also in M33). Whereas these two LBVs exhibited B-type spectra in eruption, MCA-1B is the first clear case where a Wolf–Rayet (WR) spectrum persisted at all times. Together, MCA-1B, HD 5980, and GR 290 constitute a class of WN-type LBVs, distinct from S Doradus LBVs. They are most interesting in the context of LBVs at low metallicity, a possible post-LBV/WR transition in binaries, and as likely Type Ibn supernova progenitors

Endurance of SN 2005ip after a decade: X-rays, radio, and H-alpha like SN 1988Z require long-lived pre-supernova mass loss

SN2005ip was a TypeIIn event notable for its sustained strong interaction with circumstellar material (CSM), coronal emission lines, and IR excess, interpreted as shock interaction with the very dense and clumpy wind of an extreme red supergiant. We present a series of late-time spectra of SN2005ip and a first radio detection of this SN, plus late-time X-rays, all of which indicate that its CSM interaction is still strong a decade post-explosion. We also present and discuss new spectra of geriatric SNe with continued CSM interaction: SN1988Z, SN1993J, and SN1998S. From 3-10 yr post-explosion, SN2005ip's H-alpha luminosity and other observed characteristics were nearly identical to those of the radio-luminous SN1988Z, and much more luminous than SNe1993J and 1998S. At 10 yr after explosion, SN2005ip showed a drop in H$\alpha$ luminosity, followed by a quick resurgence over several months. We interpret this variability as ejecta crashing into a dense shell located at around 0.05 pc from the star, which may be the same shell that caused the IR echo at earlier epochs. The extreme H-alpha luminosities in SN2005ip and SN1988Z are still dominated by the forward shock at 10 yr post-explosion, whereas SN1993J and SN1998S are dominated by the reverse shock at a similar age. Continuous strong CSM interaction in SNe~2005ip and 1988Z is indicative of enhanced mass loss for about 1e3 yr before core collapse, longer than Ne, O, or Si burning phases. Instead, the episodic mass loss must extend back through C burning and perhaps even part of He burning.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figs. accepted in MNRA

SN2013fs and SN2013fr: Exploring the circumstellar-material diversity in Type II supernovae

We present photometry and spectroscopy of SN2013fs and SN2013fr in the first 100 days post-explosion. Both objects showed transient, relatively narrow H$\alpha$ emission lines characteristic of SNeIIn, but later resembled normal SNeII-P or SNeII-L, indicative of fleeting interaction with circumstellar material (CSM). SN2013fs was discovered within 8hr of explosion. Its light curve exhibits a plateau, with spectra revealing strong CSM interaction at early times. It is a less luminous version of the transitional SNIIn PTF11iqb, further demonstrating a continuum of CSM interaction intensity between SNeII-P and IIn. It requires dense CSM within 6.5$\times$10$^{14}$~cm of the progenitor, from a phase of advanced pre-SN mass loss shortly before explosion. Spectropolarimetry of SN2013fs shows little continuum polarization, but noticeable line polarization during the plateau phase. SN2013fr morphed from a SNIIn at early times to a SNII-L. After the first epoch its narrow lines probably arose from host-galaxy emission, but the bright, narrow H$\alpha$ emission at early times may be intrinsic. As for SN2013fs, this would point to a short-lived phase of strong CSM interaction if proven to be intrinsic, suggesting a continuum between SNeIIn and II-L. It is a low-velocity SNII-L, like SN2009kr but more luminous. SN2013fr also developed an IR excess at later times, due to warm CSM dust that require a more sustained phase of strong pre-SN mass loss.Comment: MNRAS accepted. 28 pages, 23 figures, 8 table

Antibiotics in childhood pneumonia: how long is long enough?

Improved access to healthcare, vaccines and treatment with antibiotics has reduced global mortality from childhood community-acquired pneumonia. However, as respiratory viruses are responsible for most episodes of pneumonia, important questions remain over who should receive these agents and the length of each treatment course. Worldwide concerns with increasing antibiotic resistance in respiratory pathogens and appeals for more prudent antibiotic prescribing provide further urgency to these clinical questions. Unfortunately, guidelines for treatment duration in particular are based upon limited (and often weak) evidence, resulting in national and international guidelines recommending treatment courses for uncomplicated pneumonia ranging from 3 to 10 days. The advantages of shortcourse therapy include a lower risk of developing antibiotic resistance, improved adherence, fewer adverse drug effects, and reduced costs. The risks include treatment failure, leading to increased short- or long-term morbidity, or even death. The initial challenge is how to distinguish between bacterial and non-bacterial causes of pneumonia and then to undertake adequately powered randomised-controlled trials of varying antibiotic treatment durations in children who are most likely to have bacterial pneumonia. Meanwhile, healthcare workers should recognise the limitations of current pneumonia treatment guidelines and remember that antibiotic course duration is also determined by the child’s response to therapy

Investigation of the efficacy and safety of retinal inactivation as a treatment for amblyopia in cats

IntroductionDeprivation of normal vision early in postnatal development elicits modifications of neural circuitry within the primary visual pathway that can cause a severe and intractable vision impairment (amblyopia). In cats, amblyopia is often modeled with monocular deprivation (MD), a procedure that involves temporarily closing the lids of one eye. Following long-term MD, brief inactivation of the dominant eye’s retina can promote recovery from the anatomical and physiological effects of MD. In consideration of retinal inactivation as a viable treatment for amblyopia it is imperative to compare its efficacy against conventional therapy, as well as assess the safety of its administration.MethodsIn the current study we compared the respective efficacies of retinal inactivation and occlusion of the dominant eye (reverse occlusion) to elicit physiological recovery from a prior long-term MD in cats. Because deprivation of form vision has been associated with development of myopia, we also examined whether ocular axial length or refractive error were altered by a period of retinal inactivation.ResultsThe results of this study demonstrate that after a period of MD, inactivation of the dominant eye for up to 10 days elicited significant recovery of visually-evoked potentials that was superior to the recovery measured after a comparable duration of reverse occlusion. After monocular retinal inactivation, measurements of ocular axial length and refractive error were not significantly altered from their pre-inactivation values. The rate of body weight gain also was not changed during the period of inactivation, indicating that general well-being was not affected.DiscussionThese results provide evidence that inactivation of the dominant eye after a period of amblyogenic rearing promotes better recovery than eye occlusion, and this recovery was achieved without development of form-deprivation myopia

A new and unusual LBV-like outburst from a Wolf–Rayet star in the outskirts of M33

MCA-1B (also called UIT003) is a luminous hot star in the western outskirts of M33, classified over 20 yr ago with a spectral type of Ofpe/WN9 and identified then as a candidate luminous blue variable (LBV). Palomar Transient Factory data reveal that this star brightened in 2010, with a light curve resembling that of the classic LBV star AF And in M31. Other Ofpe/WN9 stars have erupted as LBVs, but MCA-1B was unusual because it remained hot. It showed a WN-type spectrum throughout its eruption, whereas LBVs usually get much cooler. MCA-1B showed an almost four-fold increase in bolometric luminosity and a doubling of its radius, but its temperature stayed ≳29 kK. As it faded, it shifted to even hotter temperatures, exhibiting a WN7/WN8-type spectrum, and doubling its wind speed. MCA-1B is reminiscent of some supernova impostors, and its location resembles the isolated environment of SN 2009ip. It is most similar to HD 5980 (in the Small Magellanic Cloud) and GR 290 (also in M33). Whereas these two LBVs exhibited B-type spectra in eruption, MCA-1B is the first clear case where a Wolf–Rayet (WR) spectrum persisted at all times. Together, MCA-1B, HD 5980, and GR 290 constitute a class of WN-type LBVs, distinct from S Doradus LBVs. They are most interesting in the context of LBVs at low metallicity, a possible post-LBV/WR transition in binaries, and as likely Type Ibn supernova progenitors

How Sales Taxes Affect Customer and Firm Behavior: The Role of Search on the Internet

When a multichannel retailer opens its first retail store in a state, the firm is obligated to collect sales taxes on all Internet and catalog orders shipped to that state. This article assesses how opening a store affects Internet and catalog demand. The authors analyze purchase behavior among customers who live far from the retail store but must now pay sales taxes on catalog and Internet purchases. A comparable group of customers in a neighboring state serves as a control. The results show that Internet sales decrease significantly, but catalog sales are unaffected. Further investigation indicates that the difference in these outcomes is partly attributable to the ease with which customers can search for lower prices at competing retailers. The authors extend the analysis to a panel of multichannel firms and show that retailers that earn a large proportion of their revenue from direct channels avoid opening a first store in high-tax states. They conclude that current U.S. sales taxes laws have significant effects on both customer and firm behavior

Consumer Connectivity in a Complex, Technology-Enabled, and Mobile-Oriented World with Smart Products

Today’s consumers are immersed in a vast and complex array of networks. Each network features an interconnected mesh of people and firms, and now, with the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT), also objects. Technology (particularly mobile devices) enables such connections, and facilitates many kinds of interactions in these networks - from transactions, to social information sharing, to people interfacing with connected devices (e.g., wearable technology). We introduce the POP-framework, discuss how People, Objects and the Physical world interconnect with each other and how it results in an increasing amount of connected data, and briefly summarize existing knowledge on these inter-connections. We also provide an agenda for future research focused on examining potential impact of IoT and smart products on consumer behavior and firm strategies

Systemic immunity is required for effective cancer immunotherapy

Immune responses involve coordination across cell types and tissues. However, studies in cancer immunotherapy have focused heavily on local immune responses in the tumor microenvironment. To investigate immune activity more broadly, we performed an organism-wide study in genetically engineered cancer models using mass cytometry. We analyzed immune responses in several tissues after immunotherapy by developing intuitive models for visualizing single-cell data with statistical inference. Immune activation was evident in the tumor and systemically shortly after effective therapy was administered. However, during tumor rejection, only peripheral immune cells sustained their proliferation. This systemic response was coordinated across tissues and required for tumor eradication in several immunotherapy models. An emergent population of peripheral CD4 T cells conferred protection against new tumors and was significantly expanded in patients responding to immunotherapy. These studies demonstrate the critical impact of systemic immune responses that drive tumor rejection