How can onchocerciasis elimination in Africa be accelerated? Modelling the impact of increased ivermectin treatment frequency and complementary vector control

Background: Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated. Methods: We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination. Results: Areas with 40%–50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%–80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control. Conclusions: Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful

Impact of repeated annual community directed treatment with ivermectin on loiasis parasitological indicators in Cameroon: Implications for onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis elimination in areas co-endemic with Loa loa in Africa.

BACKGROUND Loiasis is a filarial infection endemic in the rainforest zone of west and central Africa particularly in Cameroon, Gabon, Republic of Congo, and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Repeated treatments with ivermectin have been delivered using the annual community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) approach for several years to control onchocerciasis in some Loa loa-Onchocerca volvulus co-endemic areas. The impact of CDTI on loiasis parasitological indicators is not known. We, therefore, designed this cross sectional study to explore the effects of several rounds of CDTI on parasitological indicators of loiasis. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The study was conducted in the East, Northwest and Southwest 2 CDTI projects of Cameroon. Individuals who consented to participate were interviewed for ivermectin treatment history and enrolled for parasitological screening using thick smears. Ivermectin treatment history was correlated with loiasis prevalence/intensity. A total of 3,684 individuals were recruited from 36 communities of the 3 CDTI projects and 900 individuals from 9 villages in a non-CDTI district. In the East, loiasis prevalence was 29.3% (range = 24.2%-34.6%) in the non-CDTI district but 16.0% (3.3%-26.6%) in the CDTI district with 10 ivermectin rounds (there were no baseline data for the latter). In the Northwest and Southwest 2 districts, reductions from 30.5% to 17.9% (after 9 ivermectin rounds) but from 8.1% to 7.8% (not significantly different after 14 rounds) were registered post CDTI, respectively. Similar trends in infection intensity were observed in all sites. There was a negative relationship between adherence to ivermectin treatment and prevalence/intensity of infection in all sites. None of the children (aged 10-14 years) examined in the East CDTI project harboured high (8,000-30,000 mf/ml) or very high (>30,000 mf/ml) microfilarial loads. Individuals who had taken >5 ivermectin treatments were 2.1 times more likely to present with no microfilaraemia than those with less treatments. CONCLUSION In areas where onchocerciasis and loiasis are co-endemic, CDTI reduces the number of, and microfilaraemia in L. loa-infected individuals, and this, in turn, will help to prevent non-neurological and neurological complications post-ivermectin treatment among CDTI adherents

Onchocerciasis-endemic countries in Africa, showing countries covered by the OCP and initially by APOC.

<p>Map from 2010. Note that South Sudan gained independence in 2011, becoming the 20th APOC country.</p

Possible evolution of APOC structures and mechanisms.

<p>Possible evolution of APOC structures and mechanisms.</p

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis from 1995 to 2015.

<p>The total height of the bars (colored plus blank) represents the estimated number of DALYs lost in a counterfactual scenario without ivermectin mass treatment (increasing trend due to population growth). The colored part of each bar represents the estimated actual number of DALYs lost (declining trend due to ivermectin mass treatment). The blank part of each bar therefore represents the annual number of DALYs averted by ivermectin mass treatment in the total APOC population.</p

Population at risk, number of cases, and disability-adjusted life years lost and averted due to onchocerciasis in areas covered by APOC.

a<p>Infection defined as presence of at least one adult female worm.</p