Can emergency medicine research benefit from adaptive design clinical trials?

Background: Adaptive design clinical trials use preplanned interim analyses to determine whether studies should be stopped or modified before recruitment is complete. Emergency medicine trials are well suited to these designs as many have a short time to primary outcome relative to the length of recruitment. We hypothesised that the majority of published emergency medicine trials have the potential to use a simple adaptive trial design. Methods: We reviewed clinical trials published in three emergency medicine journals between January 2003 and December 2013. We determined the proportion that used an adaptive design as well as the proportion that could have used a simple adaptive design based on the time to primary outcome and length of recruitment. Results: Only 19 of 188 trials included in the review were considered to have used an adaptive trial design. A total of 154/165 trials that were fixed in design had the potential to use an adaptive design. Conclusions: Currently, there seems to be limited uptake in the use of adaptive trial designs in emergency medicine despite their potential benefits to save time and resources. Failing to take advantage of adaptive designs could be costly to patients and research. It is recommended that where practical and logistical considerations allow, adaptive designs should be used for all emergency medicine clinical trials

Intranasal immunisation with Outer Membrane Vesicles (OMV) protects against airway colonisation and systemic infection with Acinetobacter baumannii.

OBJECTIVES: The multi-drug resistant bacteria Acinetobacter baumannii is a major cause of hospital associated infection; a vaccine could significantly reduce this burden. The aim was to develop a clinically relevant model of A. baumannii respiratory tract infection and to test the impact of different immunisation routes on protective immunity provided by an outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccine. METHODS: BALB/c mice were intranasally challenged with isolates of oxa23-positive global clone GC2 A. baumannii from the lungs of patients with ventilator associated pneumonia. Mice were immunised with OMVs by the intramuscular, subcutaneous or intranasal routes; protection was determined by measuring local and systemic bacterial load. RESULTS: Infection with A. baumannii clinical isolates led to a more disseminated infection than the prototype A. baumannii strain ATCC17978; with bacteria detectable in upper and lower airways and the spleen. Intramuscular immunisation induced an antibody response but did not protect against bacterial infection. However, intranasal immunisation significantly reduced airway colonisation and prevented systemic bacterial dissemination. CONCLUSION: Use of clinically relevant isolates of A. baumannii provides stringent model for vaccine development. Intranasal immunisation with OMVs was an effective route for providing protection, demonstrating that local immunity is important in preventing A. baumannii infection

Point estimation for adaptive trial designs II: Practical considerations and guidance

In adaptive clinical trials, the conventional end-of-trial point estimate of a treatment effect is prone to bias, that is, a systematic tendency to deviate from its true value. As stated in recent FDA guidance on adaptive designs, it is desirable to report estimates of treatment effects that reduce or remove this bias. However, it may be unclear which of the available estimators are preferable, and their use remains rare in practice. This article is the second in a two-part series that studies the issue of bias in point estimation for adaptive trials. Part I provided a methodological review of approaches to remove or reduce the potential bias in point estimation for adaptive designs. In part II, we discuss how bias can affect standard estimators and assess the negative impact this can have. We review current practice for reporting point estimates and illustrate the computation of different estimators using a real adaptive trial example (including code), which we use as a basis for a simulation study. We show that while on average the values of these estimators can be similar, for a particular trial realization they can give noticeably different values for the estimated treatment effect. Finally, we propose guidelines for researchers around the choice of estimators and the reporting of estimates following an adaptive design. The issue of bias should be considered throughout the whole lifecycle of an adaptive design, with the estimation strategy prespecified in the statistical analysis plan. When available, unbiased or bias-reduced estimates are to be preferred

Mapping from visual acuity to EQ-5D, EQ-5D with vision bolt-on, and VFQ-UI in patients with macular edema in the LEAVO trial

Objectives Mappings to convert clinical measures to preference-based measures of health such as the EQ-5D-3L are sometimes required in cost-utility analyses. We developed mappings to convert best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) to the EQ-5D-3L, the EQ-5D-3L with a vision bolt-on (EQ-5D V), and the Visual Functioning Questionnaire-Utility Index (VFQ-UI) in patients with macular edema caused by central retinal vein occlusion. Methods We used data from Lucentis, Eylea, Avastin in vein occlusion (LEAVO), which is a phase-3 randomized controlled trial comparing ranibizumab, aflibercept, and bevacizumab in 463 patients with observations at 6 time points. We estimated adjusted limited dependent variable mixture models consisting of 1 to 4 distributions (components) using BCVA in each eye, age, and sex to predict utility within the components and BCVA as a determinant of component membership. We compared model fit using mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, and visual inspection of mean predicted and observed utilities and cumulative distribution functions. Results Mean utility scores were 0.82 for the EQ-5D-3L, 0.79 for the EQ-5D V, and 0.88 for the VFQ-UI. The best-fitting models for the EQ-5D and EQ-5D V had 2 components (with means of approximately 0.44 and 0.85), and the best-fitting model for VFQ-UI had 3 components (with means of approximately 0.95, 0.74, and 0.90). Conclusions Models with multiple components better predict utility than those with single components. This article provides a valuable addition to the literature, in which previous mappings in visual acuity have been limited to linear regressions, resulting in unfounded assumptions about the distribution of the dependent variable

Interesting magnetic properties of Fe1−x_{1-x}Cox_xSi alloys

Solid solution between nonmagnetic narrow gap semiconductor FeSi and diamagnetic semi-metal CoSi gives rise to interesting metallic alloys with long-range helical magnetic ordering, for a wide range of intermediate concentration. We report various interesting magnetic properties of these alloys, including low temperature re-entrant spin-glass like behaviour and a novel inverted magnetic hysteresis loop. Role of Dzyaloshinski-Moriya interaction in the magnetic response of these non-centrosymmetric alloys is discussed.Comment: 11 pages and 3 figure

Patterns of participation over four rounds of annual fecal immunochemical test-based screening for colorectal cancer: what predicts rescreening?

Published online: 01 August 2017Background: Participation at the recommended intervals is critical for screening to be effective in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. This study describes patterns of screening participation over four rounds of fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) to identify whether demographic variables and prior screening satisfaction are significantly associated with patterns of re-participation. Methods: Baseline surveys were mailed to 4000 South Australians randomly selected from the electoral-roll. Respondents (n = 1928/48.2%) were offered four annual FIT rounds. Screening participation and satisfaction at each round were recorded. Results: Study participation was 58.5, 66.9, 73.1 and 71.4% respectively over four rounds. Three participation patterns were described: consistent participation (43.1%), consistent non-participation (26.4%) and inconsistent participation (changeable; 30.5%), including intermittent and sustained change patterns. Sustained change described those who changed participatory behavior and then maintained for at least two rounds (n = 375/19.5%). Older people, and those not working were most likely to sustain participation. Younger invitees, especially men, were more likely to change participatory behavior and sustain the change. People with higher disadvantage, less education, not working and with no prior (pre-trial) screening experience were more likely to start participating and drop out. People dissatisfied with a prior screening test, including finding aspects embarrassing or unpleasant, were also more likely not to participate in annual screening or to drop out. Conclusions: The findings identify those at risk of non- or inconsistent participation in rescreening. They should aid targeting of interventions for demographic groups at risk and ensuring screening experiences are not perceived as unpleasant or difficult.Joanne M. Osborne, Carlene Wilson, Amy Duncan, Stephen R. Cole, Ingrid Flight, Deborah Turnbull, Donna L. Hughes and Graeme P. Youn

Comparison of statistical methods for the analysis of patient-reported outcomes in randomised controlled trials: a simulation study

Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) that aim to measure patients’ subjective attitudes towards their health or health-related conditions in various fields have been increasingly used in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). PRO data is likely to be bounded, discrete, and skewed. Although various statistical methods are available for the analysis of PROs in RCT settings, there is no consensus on what statistical methods are the most appropriate for use. This study aims to use simulation methods to compare the performance (in terms of bias, empirical standard error, coverage of the confidence interval, Type I error, and power) of three different statistical methods, multiple linear regression (MLR), Tobit regression (Tobit), and median regression (Median), to estimate a range of predefined treatment effects for a PRO in a two-arm balanced RCT. We assumed there was an underlying latent continuous outcome that the PRO was measuring, but the actual scores observed were equally spaced and discrete. This study found that MLR was associated with little bias of the estimated treatment effect, small standard errors, and appropriate coverage of the confidence interval under most scenarios. Tobit performed worse than MLR for analysing PROs with a small number of levels, but it had better performance when analysing PROs with more discrete values. Median showed extremely large bias and errors, associated with low power and coverage for most scenarios especially when the number of possible discrete values was small. We recommend MLR as a simple and universal statistical method for the analysis of PROs in RCT settings

Recruitment and retention of participants in randomised controlled trials: a review of trials funded by the United Kingdom health technology assessment programme

Background Substantial amounts of public funds are invested in health research worldwide. Publicly funded randomised controlled trials (RCTs) often recruit participants at a slower than anticipated rate. Many trials fail to reach their planned sample size within the envisaged trial timescale and trial funding envelope. Objectives To review the consent, recruitment and retention rates for single and multicentre randomised control trials funded and published by the UK's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme. Data sources and study selection HTA reports of individually randomised single or multicentre RCTs published from the start of 2004 to the end of April 2016 were reviewed. Data extraction Information was extracted, relating to the trial characteristics, sample size, recruitment and retention by two independent reviewers. Main outcome measures Target sample size and whether it was achieved; recruitment rates (number of participants recruited per centre per month) and retention rates (randomised participants retained and assessed with valid primary outcome data). Results This review identified 151 individually RCTs from 787 NIHR HTA reports. The final recruitment target sample size was achieved in 56% (85/151) of the RCTs and more than 80% of the final target sample size was achieved for 79% of the RCTs (119/151). The median recruitment rate (participants per centre per month) was found to be 0.92 (IQR 0.43–2.79) and the median retention rate (proportion of participants with valid primary outcome data at follow-up) was estimated at 89% (IQR 79–97%). Conclusions There is considerable variation in the consent, recruitment and retention rates in publicly funded RCTs. Investigators should bear this in mind at the planning stage of their study and not be overly optimistic about their recruitment projections