Why Change a Winning Team? Explaining Post-Election Cabinet Reshuffles in Four Westminster Democracies

Incumbent prime ministers who win re-election often reshuffle their cabinet ministers. These post-election cabinet reshuffles have important implications for policymaking and present a puzzle: why would prime ministers alter the ‘winning team’ that has just received an electoral mandate? Existing literature has largely overlooked post-election reshuffles, so offers few compelling answers. At most, a plausible but under-theorised and untested conventional wisdom suggests that electoral success increases prime ministers’ authority over their ministers. This article thus provides the first systematic study of post-election cabinet reshuffles in single-party governments. It argues that re-elected prime ministers use a temporary increase in their authority to pre-empt future leadership challenges by moving or sacking cabinet rivals. Larger election victories should thus produce larger reshuffles. However, analysis of post-election cabinet reshuffles in four ‘Westminster’ democracies since 1945 shows no support for this expectation, suggesting that further work is needed to understand these important political events

International Best Practice and the Constitution, Democracy and Rights Commission

The UK government has pledged to establish a Constitution, Democracy and Rights Commission. This body will have a wide remit to recommend potentially sweeping constitutional change. This article draws on international experience and best practice to outline how the commission might best organise the process to produce proposals which are widely supported, fit for purpose, and durable. We argue that to achieve these goals the commission’s organisation should reflect three key principles: impartiality, expertise, and public participation. This would reflect international best practice and build on recent domestic developments. We argue that these principles can best be achieved if the commission works through a citizens’ assembly that combines members of the public with party politicians. This would be a new departure for the UK, but a necessary one given the scale of the government’s constitutional reform agenda, and its stated goal of restoring public trust in politics

Parliamentary Scrutiny of Delegated Legislation: Lessons from Comparative Experience

Recent years have seen an increase in the use of delegated legislation to implement major policy decisions in the UK. This has exacerbated the longstanding criticism that Westminster lacks sufficiently robust procedures for parliamentary scrutiny of delegated legislation. However, the UK is not the only country to use delegated legislation, or to face the challenge of ensuring it receives adequate parliamentary scrutiny. This article therefore places the UK system in wider context by comparing it to six other national parliaments. We highlight one comparative strength of the UK system, two weaknesses it shares with the other six cases, and one way in which the UK might learn lessons from elsewhere. Overall, our evidence suggests that no one country offers a clear template for more rigorous parliamentary scrutiny of delegated legislation. Successful reform of the UK's system is likely to require creative procedural innovation

Does Protest Influence Political Speech? Evidence from UK Climate Protest, 2017-2019

How does protest affect political speech? Protest is an important form of political claim-making, yet our understanding of its influence on how individual legislators communicate remains limited. Our paper thus extends a theoretical framework on protests as information about voter preferences, and evaluates it using crowd-sourced protest data from the 2017-2019 Fridays for Future protests in the UK. We combine these data with ∼2.4m tweets from 553 legislators over this period and text data from ∼150k parliamentary speech records. We find that local protests prompted MPs to speak more about the climate, but only online. These results demonstrate that protest can shape the timing and substance of political communication by individual elected representatives. They also highlight an important difference between legislators' offline and online speech, suggesting that more work is needed to understand how political strategies differ across these arenas

Synchrotron validation of inline coherent imaging for tracking laser keyhole depth

In situ monitoring is critical to the increasing adoption of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) and laser welding by industry for manufacture of complex metallic components. Optical coherence tomography (OCT), an interferometric imaging technique adapted from medical applications, is now widely used for operando monitoring of morphology during high-power laser material processing. However, even in stable processing regimes, some OCT depth measurements from the keyhole (vapor cavity formed at laser beam spot) appear too shallow or too deep when compared to ex situ measurements of weld depth. It has remained unclear whether these outliers are due to imaging artifacts, multiple scattering of the imaging beam within the keyhole, or real changes in keyhole depth, making it difficult to accurately extract weld depth and determine error bounds. To provide a definitive explanation, we combine inline coherent imaging (ICI), a type of OCT, with synchrotron X-ray imaging for simultaneous, operando monitoring of the full 2-dimensional keyhole profile at high-speed (280 kHz and 140 kHz, respectively). Even in a highly turbulent pore-generation mode, the depth measured with ICI closely follows the keyhole depth extracted from radiography (>80% within ± 14 µm). Ray-tracing simulations are used to confirm that the outliers in ICI depth measurements (that significantly disagree with radiography) primarily result from multiple reflections of the imaging light (57%). Synchrotron X-ray imaging also enables tracking of bubble and pore formation events. Pores are generated during laser welding when the sidewalls of the keyhole rapidly (>10 m/s) collapse inwards, pinching off a bubble from the keyhole root and resulting in a rapid decrease in keyhole depth. Evidence of bubble formation can be found in ICI depth profiles alone, as rapid depth changes exhibit moderate correlation with bubble formation events (0.26). This work moves closer to accurate, localized defect detection during laser welding and LPBF using ICI

Sorafenib dose escalation is not uniformly associated with blood pressure elevations in normotensive patients with advanced malignancies.

Hypertension after treatment with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor inhibitors is associated with superior treatment outcomes for advanced cancer patients. To determine whether increased sorafenib doses cause incremental increases in blood pressure (BP), we measured 12-h ambulatory BP in 41 normotensive advanced solid tumor patients in a randomized dose-escalation study. After 7 days' treatment (400 mg b.i.d.), mean diastolic BP (DBP) increased in both study groups. After dose escalation, group A (400 mg t.i.d.) had marginally significant further increase in 12-h mean DBP (P = 0.053), but group B (600 mg b.i.d.) did not achieve statistically significant increases (P = 0.25). Within groups, individuals varied in BP response to sorafenib dose escalation, but these differences did not correlate with changes in steady-state plasma sorafenib concentrations. These findings in normotensive patients suggest BP is a complex pharmacodynamic biomarker of VEGF inhibition. Patients have intrinsic differences in sensitivity to sorafenib's BP-elevating effects

Use of approximations of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman inequality for solving periodic optimization problems

We show that necessary and sufficient conditions of optimality in periodic optimization problems can be stated in terms of a solution of the corresponding HJB inequality, the latter being equivalent to a max-min type variational problem considered on the space of continuously differentiable functions. We approximate the latter with a maximin problem on a finite dimensional subspace of the space of continuously differentiable functions and show that a solution of this problem (existing under natural controllability conditions) can be used for construction of near optimal controls. We illustrate the construction with a numerical example.Comment: 29 pages, 2 figure

On Exceptional Times for generalized Fleming-Viot Processes with Mutations

If $\mathbf Y$ is a standard Fleming-Viot process with constant mutation rate (in the infinitely many sites model) then it is well known that for each $t>0$ the measure $\mathbf Y_t$ is purely atomic with infinitely many atoms. However, Schmuland proved that there is a critical value for the mutation rate under which almost surely there are exceptional times at which $\mathbf Y$ is a finite sum of weighted Dirac masses. In the present work we discuss the existence of such exceptional times for the generalized Fleming-Viot processes. In the case of Beta-Fleming-Viot processes with index $\alpha\in\,]1,2[$ we show that - irrespectively of the mutation rate and $\alpha$ - the number of atoms is almost surely always infinite. The proof combines a Pitman-Yor type representation with a disintegration formula, Lamperti's transformation for self-similar processes and covering results for Poisson point processes

Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

Calibration of myocardial T2 and T1 against iron concentration.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of myocardial iron using T2* cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has been validated and calibrated, and is in clinical use. However, there is very limited data assessing the relaxation parameters T1 and T2 for measurement of human myocardial iron. METHODS: Twelve hearts were examined from transfusion-dependent patients: 11 with end-stage heart failure, either following death (n=7) or cardiac transplantation (n=4), and 1 heart from a patient who died from a stroke with no cardiac iron loading. Ex-vivo R1 and R2 measurements (R1=1/T1 and R2=1/T2) at 1.5 Tesla were compared with myocardial iron concentration measured using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. RESULTS: From a single myocardial slice in formalin which was repeatedly examined, a modest decrease in T2 was observed with time, from mean (± SD) 23.7 ± 0.93 ms at baseline (13 days after death and formalin fixation) to 18.5 ± 1.41 ms at day 566 (p<0.001). Raw T2 values were therefore adjusted to correct for this fall over time. Myocardial R2 was correlated with iron concentration [Fe] (R2 0.566, p<0.001), but the correlation was stronger between LnR2 and Ln[Fe] (R2 0.790, p<0.001). The relation was [Fe] = 5081•(T2)-2.22 between T2 (ms) and myocardial iron (mg/g dry weight). Analysis of T1 proved challenging with a dichotomous distribution of T1, with very short T1 (mean 72.3 ± 25.8 ms) that was independent of iron concentration in all hearts stored in formalin for greater than 12 months. In the remaining hearts stored for <10 weeks prior to scanning, LnR1 and iron concentration were correlated but with marked scatter (R2 0.517, p<0.001). A linear relationship was present between T1 and T2 in the hearts stored for a short period (R2 0.657, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Myocardial T2 correlates well with myocardial iron concentration, which raises the possibility that T2 may provide additive information to T2* for patients with myocardial siderosis. However, ex-vivo T1 measurements are less reliable due to the severe chemical effects of formalin on T1 shortening, and therefore T1 calibration may only be practical from in-vivo human studies