A risk science perspective on liability/guilt and uncertainty judgements in courts

This article aims to provide new insights about risk and uncertainty in law contexts, by incorporating ideas and principles of contemporary risk science. The main focus is on one particular aspect of the law: its operation in courts where a defendant has been charged with a violation of civil or criminal law. Judgements about risk and uncertainty—typically using the probability concept—and how these relate to the evidence play a central role in such situations. The decision on whether the defendant is liable/guilty or not may strongly depend on how these concepts are understood and communicated. Considerable work has been conducted to provide theoretical and practical foundations for the risk and uncertainty characterizations in these contexts. Yet, it can be argued that a proper foundation for linking the evidence and the uncertainty (probability) judgements is lacking, the result being poor communication in courts about risk and uncertainties. The present article seeks to clarify what the problems are and provide guidance on how to rectify them.publishedVersio

Extending and improving current frameworks for risk management and decision-making: A new approach for incorporating dynamic aspects of risk and uncertainty

In recent decades, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of risk-informed decision-making, and the use of risk assessments to support decisions is a core principle in current frameworks and standards for risk management and decision-making. While considerable efforts have been directed towards clarifying the role of risk assessment as input to decision-making, less attention has been paid to the follow-up of the risk assessment once a decision has been made. However, new knowledge, as well as changes in systems, phenomena or values, could alter the underlying premises of the initial risk assessment. Many of the current frameworks for risk management and decision-making lack suitable approaches for reflecting these issues, leaving important aspects of risk unaddressed. In this paper, we present an adjusted approach to risk management and decision-making in which the need for new risk assessments is evaluated, focusing on three main criteria: i) the introduction of new decision alternatives, ii) changes in risk, and iii) changes in context/values. Acknowledging the challenge of determining the appropriate timing for the evaluation, we emphasize that striking a balance between remaining responsive to challenging circumstances and avoiding the use of unnecessary resources on excessive evaluations, is a key task. By providing the basis for a more dynamic approach to risk assessment and risk management, the paper aims to strengthen the foundation for risk-informed decision-making.publishedVersio

Marine geohazards exposed: Uncertainties involved

By exhaustively reviewing the literature related to marine geohazards, this paper reports on their uncertainties. Examples of marine geohazards include submarine landslides, fluid flows in the underground, scour events, and seabed gouging by ice. Key uncertain variables of interest to marine geohazard assessments are identified and structured by relating a framework defining the main generic components of any risk description to the task of describing risk in the marine geohazards field. Furthermore, issues related to the sources of uncertainty are scrutinised and some recommendations on how to address the identified large uncertainties in geohazard risk assessments are made. Specific considerations are proposed for analysing geohazards in the Arctic, where exploration and development activities are currently regaining momentum. Ultimately, based on the large uncertainties identified, we also strive to identify knowledge gaps to orientate scientific research efforts in the field of marine geohazards.Marine geohazards exposed: Uncertainties involvedpublishedVersio

The concept of plausibility in a risk analysis context: Review and clarifications of defining ideas and interpretations

The plausibility concept has gained increasing attention in recent years in risk analysis settings. A number of definitions exist, most of which interpret plausibility as an expression of uncertainty. The concept is frequently referred to in scenario analysis and emerging risk contexts, which are characterized by large uncertainties. The difficulty of assigning probabilities in such cases has led some to claim that, by offering a purely qualitative approach, plausibility is a more suitable tool for measuring uncertainty. However, a proper clarification of what the plausibility concept means in a risk analysis context is missing; current definitions of the concept do not provide a clear understanding of how plausibility is linked to fundamental aspects of risk and uncertainty. The present paper aims to rectify these issues, by i) reviewing and discussing how the plausibility concept is interpreted and used in the literature, ii) providing a suggested interpretation of the concept in a risk analysis context, and iii) giving our recommendations on how the practical application of the plausibility concept can be enhanced by drawing on contemporary risk science, specifically with regard to highlighting the likelihood and knowledge dimensions of risk. Based on the review, it is shown that the concept of plausibility should be seen as a measure of uncertainty capturing a combination of likelihood and judgments on the supporting knowledge. We conclude that a prudent use of the concept requires that each of these dimensions are addressed explicitly, using imprecise probabilities and strength of knowledge judgments.publishedVersio

An environmental risk assessment framework for enhanced oil recovery solutions from offshore oil and gas industry

Environmental risk assessments are necessary to understand the risk associated with enhanced oil recovery (EOR) solutions and to provide decision support for choosing the best technology and implementing risk-reducing measures. This study presents a review of potentially relevant environmental/ecological risk assessment (ERA) guidelines and, based on this review, proposes an initial suggestion of an ERA framework for understanding the environmental impacts from EOR solutions. We first shortlist the important elements necessary for conducting an ERA of EOR solutions from the selected guidelines. These elements are then used to build the suggested ERA framework for produced water discharges, drilling discharges and emissions to air from EOR solutions, which is the primary objective of the present study. Furthermore, the emphasis is placed on identifying the knowledge gaps that exist for conducting ERA of EOR processes. In order to link the framework with the current best environmental practices, a review of environmental policies applicable to the marine environment around the European Union (EU) was conducted. Finally, some major challenges in the application of ERA methods for novel EOR technologies, i.e. uncertainties in the ERA due to lack of data and aggregation of risk from different environmental impacts, are discussed in detail. The frameworks suggested in this study should be possible to use by relevant stakeholders to assess environmental risk from enhanced oil recovery solutions.publishedVersio

A risk science perspective on vaccines

Vaccines can be seen as one of the greatest successes in modern medicine. Good examples are the vaccines against smallpox, polio, and measles. Unfortunately, vaccines can have side effects, but the risks are considered by the health authorities and experts to be small compared to their benefits. Nevertheless, there are many who are skeptical of vaccination, something which has been very clearly demonstrated in relation to the COVID-19 disease. Risk is the key concept when evaluating a vaccine, in relation to both its ability to protect against the disease and its side effects. However, risk is a challenging concept to measure, which makes communication about vaccines’ performance and side effects difficult. The present article aims at providing new insights into vaccine risks—the understanding, perception, communication, and handling of them—by adopting what is here referred to as a contemporary risk science perspective. This perspective clarifies the relationships between the risk concept and terms like uncertainty, knowledge, and probability. The skepticism toward vaccines is multifaceted, and influenced by concerns that extend beyond the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines. However, by clarifying the relationships between key concepts of risk, particularly how uncertainty affects risk and its characterization, we can improve our understanding of this issue.publishedVersio

Mapping climate discourse to climate opinion: An approach for augmenting surveys with social media to enhance understandings of climate opinion in the United States

Surveys are commonly used to quantify public opinions of climate change and to inform sustainability policies. However, conducting large-scale population-based surveys is often a difficult task due to time and resource constraints. This paper outlines a machine learning framework—grounded in statistical learning theory and natural language processing—to augment climate change opinion surveys with social media data. The proposed framework maps social media discourse to climate opinion surveys, allowing for discerning the regionally distinct topics and themes that contribute to climate opinions. The analysis reveals significant regional variation in the emergent social media topics associated with climate opinions. Furthermore, significant correlation is identified between social media discourse and climate attitude. However, the dependencies between topic discussion and climate opinion are not always intuitive and often require augmenting the analysis with a topic’s most frequent n-grams and most representative tweets to effectively interpret the relationship. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of how these results can be used in the policy framing process to quickly and effectively understand constituents’ opinions on critical issues.publishedVersio

Feasibility study of PRA for critical infrastructure risk analysis

Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) has been commonly used by NASA and the nuclear power industry to assess risk since the 1970s. However, PRA is not commonly used to assess risk in networked infrastructure systems such as water, sewer and power systems. Other methods which utilise network models of infrastructure such as random and targeted attack failure analysis, N-k analysis and statistical learning theory are instead used to analyse system performance when a disruption occurs. Such methods have the advantage of being simpler to implement than PRA. This paper explores the feasibility of a full PRA of infrastructure, that is one that analyses all possible scenarios as well as the associated likelihoods and consequences. Such analysis is resource intensive and quickly becomes complex for even small systems. Comparing the previously mentioned more commonly used methods to PRA provides insight into how current practises can be improved, bringing the results closer to those that would be presented from PRA. Although a full PRA of infrastructure systems may not be feasible, PRA should not be discarded. Instead, analysis of such systems should be carried out using the framework of PRA to include vital elements such as scenario likelihood analysis which are often overlooked.publishedVersio

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans.In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138843/1/risa12742_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138843/2/risa12742-sup-0001-appendix.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138843/3/risa12742.pd

Environmental risk assessment of inter-well partitioning tracer compounds shortlisted for the offshore oil and gas industry

Quantifying residual oil saturation (SOR) in the inter-well region of oil and gas reservoirs is key for successfully implementing EOR solutions. Partitioning inter-well tracer tests (PITTs) has become a common method for quantifying SOR. A new group of seven chemicals – pyridine, 2,3-dimethyl pyrazine, 2,6-dimethyl pyrazine, 4-methoxybenzyl alcohol, 3,4-dimethoxybenzyl alcohol, 4-chlorobenzyl alcohol, and 2,6-dichlorobenzyl alcohol – have been proposed as potential partitioning tracers for quantifying SOR. Using these tracers can lead to their environmental release in the marine environment through produced water discharges, with currently limited knowledge on impacts in the marine ecosystem. The primary objective of the present study is to assess the environmental risk of discharging the tracer compounds in the marine environment. We investigated the fate and effect of these tracers in the marine environment. Biodegradability in seawater was measured to understand the fate of tracers in the marine environment. The acute toxicity of tracers was measured in terms of the percent cell viability of a rainbow trout gill cell line (RTgill-W1) and growth inhibition of the algae Skeletonema costatum. The ecotoxicological information obtained from these experiments was used in the dynamic risk and effects assessment model (DREAM) to calculate the tracers’ contribution to the environmental impact factor (EIF). The results from the DREAM simulations suggest no contribution towards EIF values from any of the tracers at the expected back-produced concentrations. Results from simulations at higher concentrations suggest that both pyrazines have the lowest environmental risk, followed by 3,4-dimethoxybenzyl alcohol, 4-methoxybenzyl alcohol, and pyridine; while both chlorobenzyl alcohols show the highest environmental risk.publishedVersio