Inductive Game Theory and the Dynamics of Animal Conflict

Conflict destabilizes social interactions and impedes cooperation at multiple scales of biological organization. Of fundamental interest are the causes of turbulent periods of conflict. We analyze conflict dynamics in an monkey society model system. We develop a technique, Inductive Game Theory, to extract directly from time-series data the decision-making strategies used by individuals and groups. This technique uses Monte Carlo simulation to test alternative causal models of conflict dynamics. We find individuals base their decision to fight on memory of social factors, not on short timescale ecological resource competition. Furthermore, the social assessments on which these decisions are based are triadic (self in relation to another pair of individuals), not pairwise. We show that this triadic decision making causes long conflict cascades and that there is a high population cost of the large fights associated with these cascades. These results suggest that individual agency has been over-emphasized in the social evolution of complex aggregates, and that pair-wise formalisms are inadequate. An appreciation of the empirical foundations of the collective dynamics of conflict is a crucial step towards its effective management

Pointing to visible and invisible targets

We investigated how the visibility of targets influenced the type of point used to provide directions. In Study 1 we asked 605 passersby in three localities for directions to well-known local landmarks. When that landmark was in plain view behind the requester, most respondents pointed with their index fingers, and few respondents pointed more than once. In contrast, when the landmark was not in view, respondents pointed initially with their index fingers, but often elaborated with a whole-hand point. In Study 2, we covertly filmed the responses from 157 passersby we approached for directions, capturing both verbal and gestural responses. As in Study 1, few respondents produced more than one gesture when the target was in plain view and initial points were most likely to be index finger points. Thus, in a Western geographical context in which pointing with the index finger is the dominant form of pointing, a slight change in circumstances elicited a preference for pointing with the whole hand when it was the second or third manual gesture in a sequence

Determining initial and follow-up costs of cardiovascular events in a US managed care population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cardiovascular (CV) events are prevalent and expensive worldwide both in terms of direct medical costs at the time of the event and follow-up healthcare after the event. This study aims to determine initial and follow-up costs for cardiovascular (CV) events in US managed care enrollees and to compare to healthcare costs for matched patients without CV events.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 5.5-year retrospective matched cohort analysis of claims records for adult enrollees in ~90 US health plans. Patients hospitalized for first CV event were identified from a database containing a representative sample of the commercially-insured US population. The CV-event group (n = 29,688) was matched to a control group with similar demographics but no claims for CV-related events. Endpoints were total direct medical costs for inpatient and outpatient services and pharmacy (paid insurance amount).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, mean initial inpatient costs were US dollars ($) 16,981 per case (standard deviation [SD] =$20,474), ranging from $6,699 for a transient ischemic attack (mean length of stay [LOS] = 3.7 days) to$56,024 for a coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) (mean LOS = 9.2 days). Overall mean health-care cost during 1-year follow-up was $16,582 (SD =$34,425), an excess of $13,792 over the mean cost of matched controls. This difference in average costs between CV-event and matched-control subjects was$20,862 and $26,014 after two and three years of follow-up. Mean overall inpatient costs for second events were similar to those for first events ($17,705/case; SD = $22,703). The multivariable regression model adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics indicated that the presence of a CV event was positively associated with total follow-up costs (P < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Initial hospitalization and follow-up costs vary widely by type of CV event. The 1-year follow-up costs for CV events were almost as high as the initial hospitalization costs, but much higher for 2- and 3-year follow-up.</p

A longitudinal analysis of the risk factors for diabetes and coronary heart disease in the Framingham Offspring Study

BACKGROUND: The recent trends in sedentary life-styles and weight gain are likely to contribute to chronic conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. The temporal sequence and pathways underlying these conditions can be modeled using the knowledge from the biomedical and social sciences. METHODS: The Framingham Offspring Study in the U.S. collected information on 5124 subjects at baseline, and 8, 12, 16, and 20 years after the baseline. Dynamic random effects models were estimated for the subjects' weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure using 4 time observations. Logistic and probit models were estimated for the probability of diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) events. RESULTS: The subjects' age, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and cigarettes smoked were important predictors of the risk factors. Moreover, weight and height were found to differentially affect the probabilities of diabetes and CHD events; body weight was positively associated with the risk of diabetes while taller individuals had lower risk of CHD events. CONCLUSION: The results showed the importance of joint modeling of body weight, LDL and HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure that are risk factors for diabetes and CHD events. Lower body weight and LDL concentrations and higher HDL levels achieved via physical exercise are likely to reduce diabetes and CHD events

High blood pressure, antihypertensive medication and lung function in a general adult population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies showed that blood pressure and lung function are associated. Additionally, a potential effect of antihypertensive medication, especially beta-blockers, on lung function has been discussed. However, side effects of beta-blockers have been investigated mainly in patients with already reduced lung function. Thus, aim of this analysis is to determine whether hypertension and antihypertensive medication have an adverse effect on lung function in a general adult population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Within the population-based KORA F4 study 1319 adults aged 40-65 years performed lung function tests and blood pressure measurements. Additionally, information on anthropometric measurements, medical history and use of antihypertensive medication was available. Multivariable regression models were applied to study the association between blood pressure, antihypertensive medication and lung function.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>High blood pressure as well as antihypertensive medication were associated with lower forced expiratory volume in one second (p = 0.02 respectively p = 0.05; R²: 0.65) and forced vital capacity values (p = 0.01 respectively p = 0.05, R²: 0.73). Furthermore, a detailed analysis of antihypertensive medication pointed out that only the use of beta-blockers was associated with reduced lung function, whereas other antihypertensive medication had no effect on lung function. The adverse effect of beta-blockers was significant for forced vital capacity (p = 0.04; R²: 0.65), while the association with forced expiratory volume in one second showed a trend toward significance (p = 0.07; R²: 0.73). In the same model high blood pressure was associated with reduced forced vital capacity (p = 0.01) and forced expiratory volume in one second (p = 0.03) values, too.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our analysis indicates that both high blood pressure and the use of beta-blockers, but not the use of other antihypertensive medication, are associated with reduced lung function in a general adult population.</p

Vascular time-activity variation in patients undergoing 123I-MIBG myocardial scintigraphy: implications for quantification of cardiac and mediastinal uptake

For the quantification of cardiac (123)I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) uptake, the mediastinum is commonly used as a reference region reflecting nonspecific background activity. However, variations in the quantity of vascular structures in the mediastinum and the rate of renal clearance of (123)I-MIBG from the blood pool may contribute to increased interindividual variation in uptake. This study examined the relationship between changes in heart (H) and mediastinal (M) counts and the change in vascular (123)I-MIBG activity, including the effect of renal function. Fifty-one subjects with ischemic heart disease underwent early (15 min) and late (4 h) anterior planar images of the chest following injection of (123)I-MIBG. Vascular (123)I-MIBG activity was determined from venous blood samples obtained at 2 min, 15 min, 35 min, and 4 h post-injection. From the vascular clearance curve of each subject, the mean blood counts/min per ml at the time of each acquisition and the slope of the clearance curve were determined. Renal function was expressed as the estimated creatinine clearance (e-CC) and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR). Relations between H and M region of interest (ROI) counts/pixel, vascular activity, and renal function were then examined using linear regression. Changes in ROI activity ratios between early and late planar images could not be explained by blood activity, the slope of the vascular clearance curves, or estimates of renal function. At most 3% of the variation in image counts could be explained by changes in vascular activity (p = 0.104). The e-CC and e-GFR could at best explain approximately 1.5% of the variation in the slopes of the vascular clearance curve (p = 0.194). The change in measured H and M counts between early and late planar (123)I-MIBG images is unrelated to intravascular levels of the radiopharmaceutical. This suggests that changes in M counts are primarily due to decrease in soft tissue activity and scatter from the adjacent lung

Efficacy of fixed-dose amlodipine and losartan combination compared with amlodipine monotherapy in stage 2 hypertension: a randomized, double blind, multicenter study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of this trial was to compare the blood-pressure lowering efficacy of amlodipine/losartan combination with amlodipine monotherapy after 6 weeks of treatment in Korean patients with stage 2 hypertension.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this multi-center, double-blind, randomized study, adult patients (n = 148) with stage 2 hypertension were randomized to amlodipine 5 mg/losartan 50 mg or amlodipine 5 mg. After 2 weeks, patients with systolic blood pressure (SBP) > 140 mmHg were titrated to amlodipine 10 mg/losartan 50 mg or amlodipine 10 mg. After 4 weeks of titration, hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg could be optionally added to both groups. The change from baseline in SBP was assessed after 6 weeks. The responder rate (defined as achieving SBP < 140 mmHg or DBP < 90 mmHg) was also assessed at 2, 6 and 8 weeks as secondary endpoints. Safety and tolerability were assessed through adverse event monitoring and laboratory testing. Baseline demographics and clinical characteristics were generally similar between treatment groups. Least-square mean reduction in SBP at 6 weeks (primary endpoint) was significantly greater in the combination group (36.5 mmHg vs. 31.6 mmHg; p = 0.0117). The responder rate in SBP (secondary endpoints) was significantly higher in the combination group at 2 weeks (52.1% vs. 33.3%; p = 0.0213) but not at 6 weeks (p = 0.0550) or 8 weeks (p = 0.0592). There was no significant difference between groups in the incidence of adverse events.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results demonstrate that combination amlodipine/losartan therapy provides an effective and generally well-tolerated first line therapy for reducing blood pressure in stage 2 hypertensive patients.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01127217">NCT01127217</a></p

Be careful with triage in emergency departments: interobserver agreement on 1,578 patients in France

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>For several decades, emergency departments (EDs) utilization has increased, inducing ED overcrowding in many countries. This phenomenon is related partly to an excessive number of nonurgent patients. To resolve ED overcrowding and to decrease nonurgent visits, the most common solution has been to triage the ED patients to identify potentially nonurgent patients, i.e. which could have been dealt with by general practitioner. The objective of this study was to measure agreement among ED health professionals on the urgency of an ED visit, and to determine if the level of agreement is consistent among different sub-groups based on following explicit criteria: age, medical status, type of referral to the ED, investigations performed in the ED, and the discharge from the ED.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a multicentric cross-sectional study to compare agreement between nurses and physicians on categorization of ED visits into urgent or nonurgent. Subgroups stratified by criteria characterizing the ED visit were analyzed in relation to the outcome of the visit.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 1,928 ED patients, 350 were excluded because data were lacking. The overall nurse-physician agreement on categorization was moderate (kappa = 0.43). The levels of agreement within all subgroups were variable and low. The highest agreement concerned three subgroups of complaints: cranial injury (kappa = 0.61), gynaecological (kappa = 0.66) and toxicology complaints (kappa = 1.00). The lowest agreement concerned two subgroups: urinary-nephrology (kappa = 0.09) and hospitalization (kappa = 0.20). When categorization of ED visits into urgent or nonurgent cases was compared to hospitalization, ED physicians had higher sensitivity and specificity than nurses (respectively 94.9% versus 89.5%, and 43.1% versus 30.9%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The lack of physician-nurse agreement and the inability to predict hospitalization have important implications for patient safety. When urgency screening is used to determine treatment priority, disagreement might not matter because all patients in the ED are seen and treated. But using assessments as the basis for refusal of care to potential nonurgent patients raises legal, ethical, and safety issues. Managed care organizations should be cautious when applying such criteria to restrict access to EDs.</p