Global uncertainty and economic growth–evidence from pandemic periods

This paper investigates whether global uncertainty predicts economic growth rates using a global sample of 136 countries. We use the panel regression model and find strong evidence that global uncertainty negatively predicts the economic growth rate. Further, the negative impact of global uncertainty on economic growth rates is amplified during pandemic periods versus non-pandemic periods. Our main findings hold after a range of robustness tests

CAPITAL FLOWS DI INDONESIA: PERILAKU, PERAN, DAN OPTIMALITAS PENGGUNAANNYA BAGI PEREKONOMIAN

Berlimpahnya likuiditas global paska krisis global mengakibatkan membanjirnya aliran modal internasional ke pasar Surat Utang Negara (SUN). Selain bermanfaat, aliran modal asing tersebut,berpotensi menimbul risiko pembalikan aliran modal asing yang dapat menimbulkan ketidakstabilan di pasar keuangan domestik. Paper ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan investasi investor asing, yang mencakup faktor risiko dan return yang berasal dari domestik (pull factor) dan global (push factor). Hasil pengujian menunjukkan push factor sangat berperan mempengaruhi perilaku investor asing di pasar SUN. Bagi investor long-term, perilaku mereka untuk menempatkan dananya di pasar SUN dipengaruhi push factor, tetapi tidak dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh pull factor. Namun bagi investor short-term, baik pull maupun push factor, mempengaruhi keputusan investasi mereka. Selain itu hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa ke depan, prospek investor asing di pasar SUN masih menghadapi tantangan khususnya dari sisi volatilitas yang relatif tinggi sebagai akibat dari sensitifnya investor asing terhadap shock yang sewaktu-waktu dapat terjadi di tengah ketidakpastian kondisi pasar keuangan internasional akibat penyelesaian krisis utang di negara maju yang berlarut-larut. Dalam hal ini, Bank Indonesia dan Pemerintah perlu terus mempertahankan upaya untuk menjaga dan mengelola return dan risiko investasi di dalam negeri pada level yang lebih kompetitif dan relatif rendah dengan menjaga kekuatan dan ketangguhan perekonomian serta stabilitas keuangan domestik. Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance. JEL Classification : F31, F34, G

THE ROLE OF CURRENCY HEDGING ON FIRM PERFORMANCE: A PANEL DATA EVIDENCE IN INDONESIA

This paper analyzes the role of currency hedging on non-financial firm’s performance. Most firms on the sample have anticipated the currency mismatch risk by balancing the ratio of foreign debt to their asset  fenominated in foreign currency. Using panel estimation, we find that there is no evidence of currency hedging activities to affect capital and performance of firms. The result underlines the low intensity of currency hedging activities due to lack of incentives, which is inline with the low derivative transaction within the underdeveloped foreign currency market. This finding may raise a concern since currently the development of foreign liabilities for non-financial firmsin Indonesia is increasing in significant level, as well as the increase risk of domestic currency depreciation. For these reasons, Bank Indonesia should take proactive policies to deepen foreign currency market as well as derivative market by providing a more comprehensive and market friendly hedging instruments to banks and non-financial firms, while keep promoting the benefit of currency hedging. Keywords: Hedging, derivative market, foreign liability. JEL Classification: F31, G3

Capital Flows in Indonesia: the Behavior, the Role, and Its Optimality Uses for the Economy

The abundance of global liquidity post the global crisis resulted in a huge amount of international capital flows to Government Securities (GS) market. Besides useful, the flow of foreign capital potentially give a risk reversal that may leads to instability in domestic financial market. This paper analyzes the determinant of foreign investors including the risk and returns, both from domestic (pull factor) as well as from global (push factor). The result shows that the push factor was instrumentally influence the behavior of foreign investors in the GS (Government Securities) market. For long-term investors, their behavior to place their funds in GS market is influenced by push factor, but not significantly affected by the pull factor. However, for short-term investors, both pull and push factors influence their investment decisions. In addition simulation results indicate that in the future, the prospect of foreign investors in the securities market still faces challenges, particularly from the relatively high volatility as a result of the shock sensitivity of foreign investors on shock that can happen in the uncertainty in the international financial markets due to ongoing debt crisis resolution in developed countries.Concerning these findings, Bank Indonesia and the government needs to maintain and manage the returns and risks of domestic investment on a more competitive and relatively low level by maintaining the strength and resilience of the domestic economy and financial stability.   Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance. JEL Classification : F31, F34, G

The Role of Currency Hedging on Firm Performance: A Panel Data Evidence in Indonesia (Vol.17 No.3 Januari 2015)

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PRICE SETTING BEHAVIOR IN AN ONLINE MARKET

We study price-setting behavior in the Indonesian online market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We surveyed 297 online and offline markets dominated by micro and small enterprises (MSEs). The results show that the online market’s price-setting behaviors apply state-dependent pricing rules and price discrimination, evaluate prices more than once a year based on current information, and immediately respond to a shock. The main factor for price changes is input cost change. Meanwhile, price rigidities are influenced by implicit contracts. The probit model shows online markets face the high-competitive market, not applying a rule of thumb pricing, and frequently changing prices regarding shock

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan : Volume 15, Nomor 3, Januari 2013

Daftar Isi :Analisis Triwulanan : Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran Triwulan IV - 2012Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan, Bank IndonesiaRisk Taking Behavior of Indonesian Banks : Analysis On The Impact of Deposit Insurance Corporation EstablishmentMoch Doddy Ariefianto, Soenartomo SoepomoCapital Flows Di Indonesia : Perilaku, Peran, dan Optimalitas Penggunaanya Bagi PerekonomianFiskara Indawan, Sri Fitriani, Meily Ika Permata, Indriani KarlinaThe Role of ASEAN Exchange Rate Unit (AERU) for ASEAN-5 Monetary Integration : An Optimum Currency Area CriteriaDimas Bagus Wiranata Kusuma, Syed mohammed Abu Ashif, Ali Musa Harahap, Muhammad Alam OmarsyahPengaruh Krisis Ekonomi Amerika Serikat Terhadap Bursa Saham dan Perdagangan IndonesiaMita Nezky106hlm.;18x25c