Sufficient Covariate, Propensity Variable and Doubly Robust Estimation

Statistical causal inference from observational studies often requires adjustment for a possibly multi-dimensional variable, where dimension reduction is crucial. The propensity score, first introduced by Rosenbaum and Rubin, is a popular approach to such reduction. We address causal inference within Dawid's decision-theoretic framework, where it is essential to pay attention to sufficient covariates and their properties. We examine the role of a propensity variable in a normal linear model. We investigate both population-based and sample-based linear regressions, with adjustments for a multivariate covariate and for a propensity variable. In addition, we study the augmented inverse probability weighted estimator, involving a combination of a response model and a propensity model. In a linear regression with homoscedasticity, a propensity variable is proved to provide the same estimated causal effect as multivariate adjustment. An estimated propensity variable may, but need not, yield better precision than the true propensity variable. The augmented inverse probability weighted estimator is doubly robust and can improve precision if the propensity model is correctly specified

Reinforcement determines the timing dependence of corticostriatal synaptic plasticity in vivo

Plasticity at synapses between the cortex and striatum is considered critical for learning novel actions. However, investigations of spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) at these synapses have been performed largely in brain slice preparations, without consideration of physiological reinforcement signals. This has led to conflicting findings, and hampered the ability to relate neural plasticity to behavior. Using intracellular striatal recordings in intact rats, we show here that pairing presynaptic and postsynaptic activity induces robust Hebbian bidirectional plasticity, dependent on dopamine and adenosine signaling. Such plasticity, however, requires the arrival of a reward-conditioned sensory reinforcement signal within 2 s of the STDP pairing, thus revealing a timing-dependent eligibility trace on which reinforcement operates. These observations are validated with both computational modeling and behavioral testing. Our results indicate that Hebbian corticostriatal plasticity can be induced by classical reinforcement learning mechanisms, and might be central to the acquisition of novel actions

Supernova pointing with low- and high-energy neutrino detectors

A future galactic SN can be located several hours before the optical explosion through the MeV-neutrino burst, exploiting the directionality of $\nu$-$e$-scattering in a water Cherenkov detector such as Super-Kamiokande. We study the statistical efficiency of different methods for extracting the SN direction and identify a simple approach that is nearly optimal, yet independent of the exact SN neutrino spectra. We use this method to quantify the increase in the pointing accuracy by the addition of gadolinium to water, which tags neutrons from the inverse beta decay background. We also study the dependence of the pointing accuracy on neutrino mixing scenarios and initial spectra. We find that in the ``worst case'' scenario the pointing accuracy is $8^\circ$ at 95% C.L. in the absence of tagging, which improves to $3^\circ$ with a tagging efficiency of 95%. At a megaton detector, this accuracy can be as good as $0.6^\circ$. A TeV-neutrino burst is also expected to be emitted contemporaneously with the SN optical explosion, which may locate the SN to within a few tenths of a degree at a future km$^2$ high-energy neutrino telescope. If the SN is not seen in the electromagnetic spectrum, locating it in the sky through neutrinos is crucial for identifying the Earth matter effects on SN neutrino oscillations.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, Revtex4 format. The final version to be published in Phys. Rev. D. A few points in the original text are clarifie

Vortex Lattice Melting into Disentangled Liquid Followed by the 3D-2D Decoupling Transition in YBa_2Cu_4O_8 Single Crystals

A sharp resistance drop associated with vortex lattice melting was observed in high quality YBa_2Cu_4O_8 single crystals. The melting line is well described well by the anisotropic GL theory. Two thermally activated flux flow regions, which were separated by a crossover line B_cr=1406.5(1-T/T_c)/T (T_c=79.0 K, B_cr in T), were observed in the vortex liquid phase. Activation energy for each region was obtained and the corresponding dissipation mechanism was discussed. Our results suggest that the vortex lattice in YBa_2Cu_4O_8 single crystal melts into disentangled liquid, which then undergoes a 3D-2D decoupling transition.Comment: 5 pages, 4 eps figures, RevTex (Latex2.09

Steiner t-designs for large t

One of the most central and long-standing open questions in combinatorial design theory concerns the existence of Steiner t-designs for large values of t. Although in his classical 1987 paper, L. Teirlinck has shown that non-trivial t-designs exist for all values of t, no non-trivial Steiner t-design with t > 5 has been constructed until now. Understandingly, the case t = 6 has received considerable attention. There has been recent progress concerning the existence of highly symmetric Steiner 6-designs: It is shown in [M. Huber, J. Algebr. Comb. 26 (2007), pp. 453-476] that no non-trivial flag-transitive Steiner 6-design can exist. In this paper, we announce that essentially also no block-transitive Steiner 6-design can exist.Comment: 9 pages; to appear in: Mathematical Methods in Computer Science 2008, ed. by J.Calmet, W.Geiselmann, J.Mueller-Quade, Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Scienc

Profiting from Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies

Published in Journal of Fixed Income, 2006, 15 (4), 20-33. https://doi.org/10.3905/jfi.2006.627836</p

Effective Actions and Phase Fluctuations in d-wave Superconductors

We study effective actions for order parameter fluctuations at low temperature in layered d-wave superconductors such as the cuprates. The order parameter lives on the bonds of a square lattice and has two amplitude and two phase modes associated with it. The low frequency spectral weights for amplitude and relative phase fluctuations is determined and found to be subdominant to quasiparticle contributions. The Goldstone phase mode and its coupling to density fluctuations in charged systems is treated in a gauge-invariant manner. The Gaussian phase action is used to study both the $c$-axis Josephson plasmon and the more conventional in-plane plasmon in the cuprates. We go beyond the Gaussian theory by deriving a coarse-grained quantum XY model, which incorporates important cutoff effects overlooked in previous studies. A variational analysis of this effective model shows that in the cuprates, quantum effects of phase fluctuations are important in reducing the zero temperature superfluid stiffness, but thermal effects are small for $T << T_c$.Comment: Some numerical estimates corrected and figures changed. to appear in PRB, Sept.1 (2000

Atmospheric Methane : Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations

Atmospheric methane's rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction of this atmospheric growth to increased natural emissions over the tropics, which appear to be responding to changes in anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements of (Figure presented.) are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global methane budget is currently in disequilibrium and new inputs are as yet poorly quantified. Although microbial emissions from agriculture and waste sources have increased between 2006 and 2022 by perhaps 35 Tg/yr, with wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr of the recent net growth in methane emissions may have been driven by natural biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks to climate change. A model comparison shows that recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane's growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible that methane's current growth is within the range of Holocene variability, but it is also possible that methane's recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way

Unsustainable fuelwood extraction from South African savannas

Wood and charcoal supply the majority of sub-Saharan Africa’s rural energy needs. The long-term supply of fuelwood is in jeopardy given high consumption rates. Using airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), we mapped and investigated savanna aboveground biomass across contrasting land uses, ranging from densely populated communal areas to highly protected areas in the Lowveld savannas of South Africa. We combined the LiDAR observations with socio-economic data, biomass production rates and fuelwood consumption rates in a supply–demand model to predict future fuelwood availability. LiDAR-based biomass maps revealed disturbance gradients around settlements up to 1.5 km, corresponding to the maximum distance walked to collect fuelwood. At current levels of fuelwood consumption (67% of households use fuelwood exclusively, with a 2% annual reduction), we calculate that biomass in the study area will be exhausted within thirteen years. We also show that it will require a 15% annual reduction in consumption for eight years to a level of 20% of households using fuelwood before the reduction in biomass appears to stabilize to sustainable levels. The severity of dwindling fuelwood reserves in African savannas underscores the importance of providing affordable energy for rural economic development.The CSIR researchers were funded by the CSIR Strategic Research Panel and the Department of Science and Technology’s Earth Observation Unit. SUCSES study (Sustainability in Communal Socio-Ecological Systems) which provided data on fuelwood use in Justicia was funded by the South African National Research Foundation. The airborne campaign and analysis was funded by the Andrew Mellon Foundation.http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326am201