Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs

Reliability of the Spinal Instability Neoplastic Score (SINS) among radiation oncologists: an assessment of instability secondary to spinal metastases

BACKGROUND: The Spinal Instability Neoplastic Score (SINS) categorizes tumor related spinal instability. It has the potential to streamline the referral of patients with established or potential spinal instability to a spine surgeon. This study aims to define the inter- and intra-observer reliability and validity of SINS among radiation oncologists. METHODS: Thirty-three radiation oncologists, across ten international sites, rated 30 neoplastic spinal disease cases. For each case, the total SINS (0-18 points), three clinical categories (stable: 0-6 points, potentially unstable: 7-12 points, and unstable: 13-18 points), and a binary scale (‘stable’: 0-6 points and ‘current or possible instability’; surgical consultation recommended: 7-18 points) were recorded. Evaluation was repeated 6-8 weeks later. Inter-observer agreement and intra-observer reproducibility were calculated by means of the kappa statistic and translated into levels of agreement (slight, fair, moderate, substantial, and excellent). Validity was determined by comparing the ratings against a spinal surgeon’s consensus standard. RESULTS: Radiation oncologists demonstrated substantial (κ = 0.76) inter-observer and excellent (κ = 0.80) intra-observer reliability when using the SINS binary scale (‘stable’ versus ‘current or possible instability’). Validity of the binary scale was also excellent (κ = 0.85) compared with the gold standard. None of the unstable cases was rated as stable by the radiation oncologists ensuring all were appropriately recommended for surgical consultation. CONCLUSIONS: Among radiation oncologists SINS is a highly reliable, reproducible, and valid assessment tool to address a key question in tumor related spinal disease: Is the spine ‘stable’ or is there ‘current or possible instability’ that warrants surgical assessment

Resolved Mid-IR Emission in the Narrow Line Region of NGC 4151

We present subarcsecond resolution mid infrared images of NGC 4151 at 10.8 micron and 18.2 micron. These images were taken with the University of Florida mid-IR camera/spectrometer OSCIR at the Gemini North 8-m telescope. We resolve emission at both 10.8 micron and 18.2 micron extending ~ 3.5" across at a P.A. of ~ 60 degrees. This coincides with the the narrow line region of NGC 4151 as observed in [OIII] by the Hubble Space Telescope. The most likely explanation for this extended mid-IR emission is dust in the narrow line region heated by a central engine. We find no extended emission associated with the proposed torus and place an upper limit on its mid-IR size of less than or equal to ~ 35 pc.Comment: accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal, 19 pages including 5 figure

Vortex Flow and Transverse Flux Screening at the Bose Glass Transition

We investigate the vortex phase diagram in untwinned YBaCuO single crystals with columnar defects. These randomly distributed defects, produced by heavy ion irradiation, are expected to induce a ``Bose Glass'' phase of localized vortices characterized by a vanishing resistance and a Meissner effect for magnetic fields transverse to the defect axis. We directly observe the transverse Meissner effect using an array of Hall probe magnetometers. As predicted, the Meissner state breaks down at temperatures Ts that decrease linearly with increasing transverse magnetic field. However, Ts falls well below the conventional melting temperature Tm determined by a vanishing resistivity, suggesting an intermediate regime where flux lines are effectively localized even when rotated off the columnar defects.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication

Myogenic cell proliferation and generation of a reversible tumorigenic phenotype are triggered by preirradiation of the recipient site

Environmental influences have profound yet reversible effects on the behavior of resident cells. Earlier data have indicated that the amount of muscle formed from implanted myogenic cells is greatly augmented by prior irradiation (18 Gy) of the host mouse muscle. Here we confirm this phenomenon, showing that it varies between host mouse strains. However, it is unclear whether it is due to secretion of proliferative factors or reduction of antiproliferative agents. To investigate this further, we have exploited the observation that the immortal myogenic C2 C12 cell line forms tumors far more rapidly in irradiated than in nonirradiated host muscle. We show that the effect of preirradiation on tumor formation is persistent and dose dependent. However, C2 C12 cells are not irreversibly compelled to form undifferentiated tumor cells by the irradiated muscle environment and are still capable of forming large amounts of muscle when reimplanted into a nonirradiated muscle. In a clonal analysis of this effect, we discovered that C2 C12 cells have a bimodal propensity to form tumors; some clones form no tumors even after extensive periods in irradiated graft sites, whereas others rapidly form extensive tumors. This illustrates the subtle interplay between the phenotype of implanted cells and the factors in the muscle environment

Heredity, Environment, and Cranial Form: A Reanalysis of Boas's Immigrant Data

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/65137/1/aa.2003.105.1.125.pd