Covid-19 Dynamic Monitoring and Real-Time Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Background: Periodically, humanity is often faced with new and emerging viruses that can be a significant global threat. It has already been over a century post—the Spanish Flu pandemic, and we are witnessing a new type of coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2, which is responsible for Covid-19. It emerged from the city of Wuhan (China) in December 2019, and within a few months, the virus propagated itself globally now resulting more than 50 million cases with over 1 million deaths. The high infection rates coupled with dynamic population movement demands for tools, especially within a Brazilian context, that will support health managers to develop policies for controlling and combating the new virus. / Methods: In this work, we propose a tool for real-time spatio-temporal analysis using a machine learning approach. The COVID-SGIS system brings together routinely collected health data on Covid-19 distributed across public health systems in Brazil, as well as taking to under consideration the geographic and time-dependent features of Covid-19 so as to make spatio-temporal predictions. The data are sub-divided by federative unit and municipality. In our case study, we made spatio-temporal predictions of the distribution of cases and deaths in Brazil and in each federative unit. Four regression methods were investigated: linear regression, support vector machines (polynomial kernels and RBF), multilayer perceptrons, and random forests. We use the percentage RMSE and the correlation coefficient as quality metrics. / Results: For qualitative evaluation, we made spatio-temporal predictions for the period from 25 to 27 May 2020. Considering qualitatively and quantitatively the case of the State of Pernambuco and Brazil as a whole, linear regression presented the best prediction results (thematic maps with good data distribution, correlation coefficient >0.99 and RMSE (%) <4% for Pernambuco and around 5% for Brazil) with low training time: [0.00; 0.04 ms], CI 95%. / Conclusion: Spatio-temporal analysis provided a broader assessment of those in the regions where the accumulated confirmed cases of Covid-19 were concentrated. It was possible to differentiate in the thematic maps the regions with the highest concentration of cases from the regions with low concentration and regions in the transition range. This approach is fundamental to support health managers and epidemiologists to elaborate policies and plans to control the Covid-19 pandemics

COVID-SGIS: A Smart Tool for Dynamic Monitoring and Temporal Forecasting of Covid-19

Background: The global burden of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is increasing at an unprecedented rate. The current spread of Covid-19 in Brazil is problematic causing a huge public health burden to its population and national health-care service. To evaluate strategies for alleviating such problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of cases and deaths in order to aid the stakeholders in the process of making decisions against the disease. We propose a novel system for real-time forecast of the cumulative cases of Covid-19 in Brazil. / Methods: We developed the novel COVID-SGIS application for the real-time surveillance, forecast and spatial visualization of Covid-19 for Brazil. This system captures routinely reported Covid-19 information from 27 federative units from the Brazil.io database. It utilizes all Covid-19 confirmed case data that have been notified through the National Notification System, from March to May 2020. Time series ARIMA models were integrated for the forecast of cumulative number of Covid-19 cases and deaths. These include 6-days forecasts as graphical outputs for each federative unit in Brazil, separately, with its corresponding 95% CI for statistical significance. In addition, a worst and best scenarios are presented. / Results: The following federative units (out of 27) were flagged by our ARIMA models showing statistically significant increasing temporal patterns of Covid-19 cases during the specified day-to-day period: Bahia, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Amapá, Rondônia, where their day-to-day forecasts were within the 95% CI limits. Equally, the same findings were observed for Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Santa Catarina. The overall percentage error between the forecasted values and the actual values varied between 2.56 and 6.50%. For the days when the forecasts fell outside the forecast interval, the percentage errors in relation to the worst case scenario were below 5%. / Conclusion: The proposed method for dynamic forecasting may be used to guide social policies and plan direct interventions in a cost-effective, concise, and robust manner. This novel tools can play an important role for guiding the course of action against the Covid-19 pandemic for Brazil and country neighbors in South America

Methylated BSA Mimics Amyloid-Related Proteins and Triggers Inflammation

The mechanistic study of inflammatory or autoimmune diseases requires the generation of mouse models that reproduce the alterations in immune responses observed in patients. Methylated bovine serum albumin (mBSA) has been widely used to induce antigen-specific inflammation in targeted organs or in combination with single stranded DNA (ssDNA) to generate anti-nucleic acids antibodies in vivo. However, the mechanism by which this modified protein triggers inflammation is poorly understood. By analyzing the biochemical properties of mBSA, we found that mBSA exhibits features of an intermediate of protein misfolding pathway. mBSA readily interact with a list of dyes that have binding specificity towards amyloid fibrils. Intriguingly, mBSA displayed cytotoxic activity and its binding to ssDNA further enhanced formation of beta-sheet rich amyloid fibrils. Moreover, mBSA is recognized by the serum amyloid P, a protein unanimously associated with amyloid plaques in vivo. In macrophages, we observed that mBSA disrupted the lysosomal compartment, signaled along the NLRP3 inflammasome pathway, and activated caspase 1, which led to the production of IL-1β. In vivo, mBSA triggered rapid and prominent immune cell infiltration that is dependent on IL-1β induction. Taken together, these data demonstrate that by mimicking amyloidogenic proteins mBSA exhibits strong innate immune functions and serves as a potent adjuvant. These findings advance our understanding on the underlying mechanism of how aberrant immune responses lead to autoimmune reactions

Inequalities in mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer in Barcelona, Spain and São Paulo, Brazil, 1995–2003

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Large inequalities of mortality by most cancers in general, by mouth and pharynx cancer in particular, have been associated to behaviour and geopolitical factors. The assessment of socioeconomic covariates of cancer mortality may be relevant to a full comprehension of distal determinants of the disease, and to appraise opportune interventions. The objective of this study was to compare socioeconomic inequalities in male mortality by oral and pharyngeal cancer in two major cities of Europe and South America.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The official system of information on mortality provided data on deaths in each city; general censuses informed population data. Age-adjusted death rates by oral and pharyngeal cancer for men were independently assessed for neighbourhoods of Barcelona, Spain, and São Paulo, Brazil, from 1995 to 2003. Uniform methodological criteria instructed the comparative assessment of magnitude, trends and spatial distribution of mortality. General linear models assessed ecologic correlations between death rates and socioeconomic indices (unemployment, schooling levels and the human development index) at the inner-city area level. Results obtained for each city were subsequently compared.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mortality of men by oral and pharyngeal cancer ranked higher in Barcelona (9.45 yearly deaths per 100,000 male inhabitants) than in Spain and Europe as a whole; rates were on decrease. São Paulo presented a poorer profile, with higher magnitude (11.86) and stationary trend. The appraisal of ecologic correlations indicated an unequal and inequitably distributed burden of disease in both cities, with poorer areas tending to present higher mortality. Barcelona had a larger gradient of mortality than São Paulo, indicating a higher inequality of cancer deaths across its neighbourhoods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The quantitative monitoring of inequalities in health may contribute to the formulation of redistributive policies aimed at the concurrent promotion of wellbeing and social justice. The assessment of groups experiencing a higher burden of disease can instruct health services to provide additional resources for expanding preventive actions and facilities aimed at early diagnosis, standardized treatments and rehabilitation.</p

Olaparib tablets as maintenance therapy in patients with platinum-sensitive relapsed ovarian cancer and a BRCA1/2 mutation (SOLO2/ENGOT-Ov21): a final analysis of a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND: Olaparib, a poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor, has previously been shown to extend progression-free survival versus placebo when given to patients with relapsed high-grade serous or endometrioid ovarian cancer who were platinum sensitive and who had a BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutation, as part of the SOLO2/ENGOT-Ov21 trial. The aim of this final analysis is to investigate the effect of olaparib on overall survival. METHODS: This double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial was done across 123 medical centres in 16 countries. Eligible patients were aged 18 years or older, had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status at baseline of 0-1, had histologically confirmed, relapsed, high-grade serous or high-grade endometrioid ovarian cancer, including primary peritoneal or fallopian tube cancer, and had received two or more previous platinum regimens. Patients were randomly assigned (2:1) to receive olaparib tablets (300 mg in two 150 mg tablets twice daily) or matching placebo tablets using an interactive web or voice-response system. Stratification was by response to previous chemotherapy and length of platinum-free interval. Treatment assignment was masked to patients, treatment providers, and data assessors. The primary endpoint of progression-free survival has been reported previously. Overall survival was a key secondary endpoint and was analysed in all patients as randomly allocated. Safety was assessed in all patients who received at least one treatment dose. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01874353, and is no longer recruiting patients. FINDINGS: Between Sept 3, 2013 and Nov 21, 2014, 295 patients were enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either olaparib (n=196 [66%]) or placebo (n=99 [34%]). One patient, randomised in error, did not receive olaparib. Median follow-up was 65·7 months (IQR 63·6-69·3) with olaparib and 64·5 months (63·4-68·7) with placebo. Median overall survival was 51·7 months (95% CI 41·5-59·1) with olaparib and 38·8 months (31·4-48·6) with placebo (hazard ratio 0·74 [95% CI 0·54-1·00]; p=0·054), unadjusted for the 38% of patients in the placebo group who received subsequent PARP inhibitor therapy. The most common grade 3 or worse treatment-emergent adverse event was anaemia (which occurred in 41 [21%] of 195 patients in the olaparib group and two [2%] of 99 patients in the placebo group). Serious treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in 50 (26%) of 195 patients receiving olaparib and eight (8%) of 99 patients receiving placebo. Treatment-emergent adverse events with a fatal outcome occurred in eight (4%) of the 195 patients receiving olaparib, six of which were judged to be treatment-related (attributed to myelodysplastic syndrome [n=3] and acute myeloid leukaemia [n=3]). INTERPRETATION: Olaparib provided a median overall survival benefit of 12·9 months compared with placebo in patients with platinum-sensitive, relapsed ovarian cancer and a BRCA1/2 mutation. Although statistical significance was not reached, these findings are arguably clinically meaningful and support the use of maintenance olaparib in these patients. FUNDING: AstraZeneca and Merck

Quantitative effects of tobacco smoking exposure on the maternal-fetal circulation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite the existence of various published studies regarding the effects of tobacco smoking on pregnancy, and especially in regards to placental blood flow and vascular resistance, some points still require clarification. In addition, the amount of damage due to tobacco smoking exposure that occurs has not been quantified by objective means. In this study, we looked for a possible association between flow resistance indices of several arteries and the levels of urinary cotinine and the concentration of carbon monoxide in the exhaled air (COex) of both smoking and non-smoking pregnant women. We also looked for a relationship between those findings and fetal growth and birth weight.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a prospective design, thirty pregnant smokers and thirty-four pregnant non-smokers were studied. The volunteers signed consent forms, completed a self-applied questionnaire and were subjected to Doppler velocimetry. Tobacco smoking exposure was quantified by subject provided information and confirmed by the measurement of urinary cotinine levels and by the concentration of carbon monoxide in the exhaled air (COex). The weight of newborns was evaluated immediately after birth.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Comparing smoking to non-smoking pregnant women, a significant increase in the resistance index was observed in the uterine arteries (P = 0.001) and umbilical artery (P = 0.001), and a decrease in the middle cerebral artery (P = 0.450). These findings were associated with progressively higher concentrations of COex and urinary cotinine. A decrease in the birth weight was also detected (P < 0.001) in association with a progressive increase in the tobacco exposure of the pregnant woman.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In pregnant women who smoke, higher arterial resistance indices and lower birth weights were observed, and these findings were associated with increasing levels of tobacco smoking exposure. The values were significantly different when compared to those found in non-smoking pregnant women. This study contributes to the findings that smoking damage during pregnancy is dose-dependent, as demonstrated by the objective methods for measuring tobacco smoking exposure.</p