Pupil mobility, attainment and progress in secondary school

This paper is the second of two articles arising from a study of the association between pupil mobility and attainment in national tests and examinations in an inner London borough. The first article (Strand & Demie, 2006) examined the association of pupil mobility with attainment and progress during primary school. It concluded that pupil mobility had little impact on performance in national tests at age 11, once pupils’ prior attainment at age 7 and other pupil background factors such as age, sex, special educational needs, stage of fluency in English and socio-economic disadvantage were taken into account. The present article reports the results for secondary schools (age 11-16). The results indicate that pupil mobility continues to have a significant negative association with performance in public examinations at age 16, even after including statistical controls for prior attainment at age 11 and other pupil background factors. Possible reasons for the contrasting results across school phases are explored. The implications for policy and further research are discussed

Characterizing and mapping cropping patterns in a complex agro-ecosystem: An iterative participatory mapping procedure using machine learning algorithms and MODIS vegetation indices

Accurate and up-to-date spatial agricultural information is essential for applications including agro-environmental assessment, crop management, and appropriate targeting of agricultural technologies. There is growing research interest in spatial analysis of agricultural ecosystems applying satellite remote sensing technologies. However, usability of information generated from many of remotely sensed data is often constrained by accuracy problems. This is of particular concern in mapping complex agro-ecosystems in countries where small farm holdings are dominated by diverse crop types. This study is a contribution to the ongoing efforts towards overcoming accuracy challenges faced in remote sensing of agricultural ecosystems. We applied time-series analysis of vegetation indices (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensor to detect seasonal patterns of irrigated and rainfed cropping patterns in five townships in the Central Dry Zone of Myanmar, which is an important agricultural region of the country has been poorly mapped with respect to cropping practices. To improve mapping accuracy and map legend completeness, we implemented a combination of (i) an iterative participatory approach to field data collection and classification, (ii) the identification of appropriate size and types of predictor variables (VIs), and (iii) evaluation of the suitability of three Machine Learning algorithms: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and C5.0 algorithms under varying training sample sizes. Through these procedures, we were able to progressively improve accuracy and achieve maximum overall accuracy of 95% When a small sized training dataset was used, accuracy achieved by RF was significantly higher compared to SVM and C5.0 (P < 0.01), but as sample size increased, accuracy differences among the three machine learning algorithms diminished. Accuracy achieved by use of NDVI was consistently better than that of EVI (P < 0.01). The maximum overall accuracy was achieved using RF and 8-days NDVI composites for three years of remote sensing data. In conclusion, our findings highlight the important role of participatory classification, especially in areas where cropping systems are highly diverse and differ over space and time. We also show that the choice of classifiers and size of predictor variables are essential and complementary to the participatory mapping approach in achieving desired accuracy of cropping pattern mapping in areas where other sources of spatial information are scarce

The contribution of general language ability, reading comprehension and working memory to mathematics achievement among children with English as additional language (EAL): an exploratory study

An increasing number of high-stakes mathematics standardised tests around the world place an emphasis on using mathematical word problems to assess students’ mathematical understanding. Not only do these assessments require children to think mathematically, but making sense of these tests’ mathematical word problems also brings children’s language ability, reading comprehension and working memory into play. The nature of these test items places a great deal of cognitive demand on all mathematics learners, but particularly on children completing the assessments in a second language that is still developing. This paper reports findings from an exploratory study on the contribution of language to mathematics achievement among 35 children with English as an Additional Language (EAL) and 31 children with English as their first language (FLE). The findings confirm the prominent role of general language ability in the development and assessment of mathematical ability. This variable explained more variance than working memory in word-based mathematics scores for all learners. Significant differences were found between the performance of FLE learners and EAL learners on solving mathematical word-based problems, but not on wordless problems. We conclude that EAL learners need to receive more targeted language support, including help with specific language knowledge needed to understand and solve mathematical word problems

Landscape-based nutrient application in wheat and teff mixed farming systems of Ethiopia: farmer and extension agent demand driven approach

Introduction: Adapting fertilizer use is crucial if smallholder agroecosystems are to attain the sustainable development goals of zero hunger and agroecosystem resilience. Poor soil health and nutrient variability characterize the smallholder farming systems. However, the current research at the field scale does not account for nutrient variability across landscape positions, posing significant challenges for targeted nutrient management interventions. The purpose of this research was to create a demand-driven and co-development approach for diagnosing farmer nutrient management practices and determining landscape-specific (hillslope, mid-slope, and foot slope) fertilizer applications for teff and wheat. Method: A landscape segmentation approach was aimed to address gaps in farm-scale nutrient management research as well as the limitations of blanket recommendations to meet local nutrient requirements. This approach incorporates the concept of interconnected socio-technical systems as well as the concepts and procedures of co-development. A smart mobile app was used by extension agents to generate crop-specific decision rules at the landscape scale and forward the specific fertilizer applications to target farmers through SMS messages or print formats. Results and discussion: The findings reveal that farmers apply more fertilizer to hillslopes and less to mid- and foot slopes. However, landscape-specific fertilizer application guided by crop-specific decision rules via mobile applications resulted in much higher yield improvements, 23% and 56% at foot slopes and 21% and 6.5% at mid slopes for wheat and teff, respectively. The optimized net benefit per hectare increase over the current extension recommendation was $176 and$333 at foot slopes and $159 and$64 at mid slopes for wheat and teff (average of $90 and$107 for wheat and teff), respectively. The results of the net benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) demonstrated that applying landscape-targeted fertilizer resulted in an optimum return on investment ($10.0 net profit per$1.0 investment) while also enhancing nutrient use efficiency across the three landscape positions. Farmers are now cognizant of the need to reduce fertilizer rates on hillslopes while increasing them on parcels at mid- and foot-slope landscapes, which have higher responses and profits. As a result, applying digital advisory to optimize landscape-targeted fertilizer management gives agronomic, economic, and environmental benefits. The outcomes results of the innovation also contribute to overcoming site-specific yield gaps and low nutrient use efficiency, they have the potential to be scaled if complementing innovations and scaling factors are integrated

Geographic distribution of MERS coronavirus among dromedary camels, Africa

We found serologic evidence for the circulation of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus among dromedary camels in Nigeria, Tunisia, and Ethiopia. Circulation of the virus among dromedaries across broad areas of Africa may indicate that this disease is currently underdiagnosed in humans outside the Arabian Peninsula

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere