Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland.

The direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-level mortality is of concern to public health but challenging to quantify. Using data for 2011-2019, we applied Bayesian models to predict the expected number of deaths in Switzerland and compared them with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths from February 2020 to April 2022 (study period). We estimated that COVID-19-related mortality was underestimated by a factor of 0.72 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.46-0.78). After accounting for COVID-19 deaths, the observed mortality was -4% (95% CrI: -8 to 0) lower than expected. The deficit in mortality was concentrated in age groups 40-59 (-12%, 95%CrI: -19 to -5) and 60-69 (-8%, 95%CrI: -15 to -2). Although COVID-19 control measures may have negative effects, after subtracting COVID-19 deaths, there were fewer deaths in Switzerland during the pandemic than expected, suggesting that any negative effects of control measures were offset by the positive effects. These results have important implications for the ongoing debate about the appropriateness of COVID-19 control measures

Non-invasive monitoring of drug action: A new live in vitro assay design for Chagas' disease drug discovery.

New assay designs are needed to improve the predictive value of the Trypanosoma cruzi in vitro tests used as part of the Chagas' disease drug development pipeline. Here, we employed a green fluorescent protein (eGFP)-expressing parasite line and live high-content imaging to monitor the growth of T. cruzi amastigotes in mouse embryonic fibroblasts. A novel assay design allowed us to follow parasite numbers over 6 days, in four-hour intervals, while occupying the microscope for only 24 hours per biological replicate. Dose-response curves were calculated for each time point after addition of test compounds, revealing how EC50 values first decreased over the time of drug exposure, and then leveled off. However, we observed that parasite numbers could vary, even in the untreated controls, and at different sites in the same well, which caused variability in the EC50 values. To overcome this, we established that fold change in parasite number per hour is a more robust and informative measure of drug activity. This was calculated based on an exponential growth model for every biological sample. The net fold change per hour is the result of parasite replication, differentiation, and death. The calculation of this fold change enabled us to determine the tipping point of drug action, i.e. the time point when the death rate of the parasites exceeded the growth rate and the fold change dropped below 1, depending on the drug concentration and exposure time. This revealed specific pharmacodynamic profiles of the benchmark drugs benznidazole and posaconazole