Prediction of uncomplicated pregnancies in obese women: A prospective multicentre study

BACKGROUND: All obese pregnant women are considered at equal high risk with respect to complications in pregnancy and birth, and are commonly managed through resource-intensive care pathways. However, the identification of maternal characteristics associated with normal pregnancy outcomes could assist in the management of these pregnancies. The present study aims to identify the factors associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth in obese women, and to assess their predictive performance. METHODS: Data form obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) with singleton pregnancies included in the UPBEAT trial were used in this analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic, clinical and biochemical factors at 15 +0 to 18 +6 weeks' gestation associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth, defined as delivery of a term live-born infant without antenatal or labour complications. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Internal validation and calibration were also performed. Women were divided into fifths of risk and pregnancy outcomes were compared between groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated using the upper fifth as the positive screening group. RESULTS: Amongst 1409 participants (BMI 36.4, SD 4.8 kg/m 2 ), the prevalence of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth was 36% (505/1409). Multiparity and increased plasma adiponectin, maternal age, systolic blood pressure and HbA1c were independently associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. These factors achieved an AUROC of 0.72 (0.68-0.76) and the model was well calibrated. Prevalence of gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and other hypertensive disorders, preterm birth, and postpartum haemorrhage decreased whereas spontaneous vaginal delivery increased across the fifths of increasing predicted risk of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 38%, 89%, 63% and 74%, respectively. A simpler model including clinical factors only (no biomarkers) achieved an AUROC of 0.68 (0.65-0.71), with sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 31%, 86%, 56% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical factors and biomarkers can be used to help stratify pregnancy and delivery risk amongst obese pregnant women. Further studies are needed to explore alternative pathways of care for obese women demonstrating different risk profiles for uncomplicated pregnancy and birth

Lifestyle intervention in obese pregnancy and cardiac remodelling in 3-year olds: children of the UPBEAT RCT

Background/Objectives: Obesity in pregnancy has been associated with increased childhood cardiometabolic risk and reduced life expectancy. The UK UPBEAT multicentre randomised control trial was a lifestyle intervention of diet and physical activity in pregnant women with obesity. We hypothesised that the 3-year-old children of women with obesity would have heightened cardiovascular risk compared to children of normal BMI women, and that the UPBEAT intervention would mitigate this risk. Subjects/Methods: Children were recruited from one UPBEAT trial centre. Cardiovascular measures included blood pressure, echocardiographic assessment of cardiac function and dimensions, carotid intima-media thickness and heart rate variability (HRV) by electrocardiogram. Results: Compared to offspring of normal BMI women (n = 51), children of women with obesity from the trial standard care arm (n = 39) had evidence of cardiac remodelling including increased interventricular septum (IVS; mean difference 0.04 cm; 95% CI: 0.018 to 0.067), posterior wall (PW; 0.03 cm; 0.006 to 0.062) and relative wall thicknesses (RWT; 0.03 cm; 0.01 to 0.05) following adjustment. Randomisation of women with obesity to the intervention arm (n = 31) prevented this cardiac remodelling (intervention effect; mean difference IVS −0.03 cm (−0.05 to −0.008); PW −0.03 cm (−0.05 to −0.01); RWT −0.02 cm (−0.04 to −0.005)). Children of women with obesity (standard care arm) compared to women of normal BMI also had elevated minimum heart rate (7 bpm; 1.41 to 13.34) evidence of early diastolic dysfunction (e prime) and increased sympathetic nerve activity index by HRV analysis. Conclusions: Maternal obesity was associated with left ventricular concentric remodelling in 3-year-old offspring. Absence of remodelling following the maternal intervention infers in utero origins of cardiac remodelling. Clinical trial registry name and registration number: The UPBEAT trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN89971375