Euro area fiscal stance

This paper analyses the appropriateness of the euro area fiscal stance. In this context, the paper presents the relevant definitions and how the euro area fiscal stance has evolved over time. Furthermore, it contains an evaluation of the appropriateness of the euro area aggregated fiscal stance set out in the European Commission’s Spring 2016 European Economic Forecast, concluding that, while it is broadly appropriate from the stabilisation perspective, it deviates slightly from the sustainability objective. Finally, the paper investigates the impact of a fiscal stimulus in Germany on the main euro area macroeconomic variables under an adverse risk scenario. The analytical exercise conducted in the paper is agnostic about the relative weights of the stabilisation and sustainability objectives and considers them separately. This is distinct from the SGP framework, which synthesises the two, placing a stronger emphasis on the latter. The ultimate aim of this approach is to analyse the possible interactions between the two objectives at the current juncture

Benchmarking the Lisbon Strategy

This paper reviews the governance framework of the Lisbon Strategy and discusses the specific option of increasing the role of benchmarking as a means of improving the implementation record of structural reforms in the European Union. Against this background, the paper puts forward a possible avenue for developing a strong form of quantitative benchmarking, namely ranking. The ranking methodology relies on the construction of a synthetic indicator using the “benefit of the doubt” approach, which acknowledges differences in emphasis among Member States with regard to structural reform priorities. The methodology is applied by using the structural indicators that have been commonly agreed by the governments of the Member States, but could also be used for ranking exercises on the basis of other indicators. JEL Classification: D02, P11, P16, C43, C61.Lisbon Strategy, economic governance, benchmarking, benefit of the doubt weighting.

Benchmarking the Lisbon Strategy

This paper reviews the governance framework of the Lisbon Strategy and discusses the specific option of increasing the role of benchmarking as a means of improving the implementation record of structural reforms in the European Union. Against this background, the paper puts forward a possible avenue for developing a strong form of quantitative benchmarking, namely ranking. The ranking methodology relies on the construction of a synthetic indicator using the “benefit of the doubt” approach, which acknowledges differences in emphasis among Member States with regard to structural reform priorities. The methodology is applied by using the structural indicators that have been commonly agreed by the governments of the Member States, but could also be used for ranking exercises on the basis of other indicators

The effect of public investment in Europe: A model-based assessment

We consider the effect of an increase in public investments on output in Europe against the background of a sharp drop of public investments in a number of EU countries during the crisis and subsequent policy discussions on the need to stimulate public investments. We start with a brief overview of recent developments in public investments, including some methodological issues, and provide a literature overview of the effect of public investments on growth. On the basis of updated estimates of the public capital stock, we estimate the output response to a public capital impulse, using VAR models. In addition, using a structural model, we investigate the sensitivity of the macroeconomic impact of an increase in public investments to alternative assumptions about economic structures and policy implementations

Climate change mitigation: How effective is green quantitative easing?

We develop a two sector incomplete markets integrated assessment model to analyze the effectiveness of green quantitative easing (QE) in complementing fiscal policies for climate change mitigation. We model green QE through an outstanding stock of private assets held by a monetary authority and its portfolio allocation between a clean and a dirty sector of production. Green QE leads to a partial crowding out of private capital in the green sector and to a modest reduction of the global temperature by 0.04 degrees of Celsius until 2100. A moderate global carbon tax of 50 USD is 4 times more effective

Fiscal expenditure spillovers in the euro area: An empirical and model-based assessment

Este documento describe los principales canales de transmisión de los efectos desbordamiento (spillovers) de las políticas fiscales nacionales a otros países de la zona del euro y analiza su magnitud utilizando diferentes modelos. En el contexto de la Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM), los efectos desbordamiento de las políticas fiscales son relevantes para la evaluación precisa de las perspectivas económicas en los países miembros, así como en los debates sobre un cambio coordinado en el tono de la política fiscal de la zona del euro y sobre su capacidad fiscal. El documento se centra en los efectos indirectos de las expansiones basadas en el gasto público, presentando dos ejercicios complementarios. El primero es una investigación empírica de los efectos desbordamiento basada en un novedoso y amplio conjunto de datos trimestrales para los países más grandes de la zona del euro, y en nuevas estimaciones basadas en datos anuales para un panel de 11 países de la misma zona. El segundo ejercicio utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general de varios países con una especificación fiscal detallada y la posibilidad de analizar los efectos desbordamiento basados en el comercio entre países. Los resultados sugieren que los efectos desbordamiento derivados de las políticas fiscales de gasto son heterogéneos —pero, en general, positivos— entre los países del área del euro. La reacción de los tipos de interés a las expansiones fiscales es un determinante destacado de la magnitud de estos efectos desbordamiento.The paper describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within the euro area and investigates their magnitude using different models. In the context of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), fiscal spillovers are relevant for the accurate assessment of the cyclical outlook in euro area countries, as well as in the debates on a coordinated change in the euro area fiscal stance and on a euro area fiscal capacity. The paper focuses on spillovers from expenditure-based expansions by presenting two complementary exercises. The first is an empirical investigation of spillovers based on a new, long quarterly dataset for the largest euro area countries and on new estimates based on annual data for a panel of 11 euro area countries. The second uses a multi-country general equilibrium model with a rich fiscal specification and the capacity to analyse trade spillovers. Fiscal spillovers are found to be heterogeneous but generally positive among euro area countries. The reaction of interest rates to fiscal expansions is an important determinant of the magnitude of spillovers

Quantitative easing and the price-liquidity trade-off

We consider the effects of quantitative easing on liquidity and prices of bonds in a search- and matching model. The model explicitly distinguishes between demand and supply effects of central bank asset purchases. Both are shown to lead to a decline in yields, while they have opposite effects on market liquidity. This results in a price-liquidity trade-off. Initially, liquidity improves in reaction to central bank demand. As the central bank buys and holds bonds, supply becomes scarcer and other buyers are crowded out. As a result, liquidity can fall below initial levels. The magnitude of the effects depend on the presence of preferred habitat investors. In markets with a higher share of these investors, bonds are scarcer and central bank asset purchases lower yields more. With a lower share of preferred habitat investors and a relatively illiquid market, central bank demand has a stronger positive effect on liquidity. We are the first to construct an index from bond holding data to measure the prevalence of preferred habitat investors in each euro area country. Subsequently, we calibrate the model to the euro area and show how yields and liquidity are affected by the European Central Banks asset purchase programme

A fiscal capacity with endogenous access in a monetary union

We study the stabilization properties and welfare implications of a fiscal capacity in a New Keynesian model for a monetary union. A novel feature of the model is that access to the fiscal capacity is conditional on a country's public debt accumulation being sufficiently low. Likewise, the national fiscal effort to stabilize debt is more ambitious at higher debt levels. We show that the fiscal capacity reduces union-wide macroeconomic variability and raises union-wide welfare by reducing the incidence of regimes with large (pro-cyclical) fiscal consolidations. Welfare gains are higher under greater trade openness and price stickiness

Climate change mitigation: how effective is green quantitative easing?

We develop a two-sector incomplete markets integrated assessment model to analyze the effectiveness of green quantitative easing (QE) in complementing fiscal policies for climate change mitigation. We model green QE through an outstanding stock of private assets held by a monetary authority and its portfolio allocation between a clean and a dirty sector of production. Green QE leads to a partial crowding out of private capital in the green sector and to a modest reduction of the global temperature by 0.04 degrees of Celsius until 2100. A moderate global carbon tax of 50 USD per tonne of carbon is 4 times more effective