Estimation of the national disease burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness in Kenya and Guatemala : a novel methodology

Background: Knowing the national disease burden of severe influenza in low-income countries can inform policy decisions around influenza treatment and prevention. We present a novel methodology using locally generated data for estimating this burden. Methods and Findings: This method begins with calculating the hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) incidence for children <5 years old and persons ≥5 years old from population-based surveillance in one province. This base rate of SARI is then adjusted for each province based on the prevalence of risk factors and healthcare-seeking behavior. The percentage of SARI with influenza virus detected is determined from provincial-level sentinel surveillance and applied to the adjusted provincial rates of hospitalized SARI. Healthcare-seeking data from healthcare utilization surveys is used to estimate non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI. Rates of hospitalized and non-hospitalized influenza-associated SARI are applied to census data to calculate the national number of cases. The method was field-tested in Kenya, and validated in Guatemala, using data from August 2009–July 2011. In Kenya (2009 population 38.6 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized influenza-associated SARI cases ranged from 17,129–27,659 for children <5 years old (2.9–4.7 per 1,000 persons) and 6,882–7,836 for persons ≥5 years old (0.21–0.24 per 1,000 persons), depending on year and base rate used. In Guatemala (2011 population 14.7 million persons), the annual number of hospitalized cases of influenza-associated pneumonia ranged from 1,065–2,259 (0.5–1.0 per 1,000 persons) among children <5 years old and 779–2,252 cases (0.1–0.2 per 1,000 persons) for persons ≥5 years old, depending on year and base rate used. In both countries, the number of non-hospitalized influenza-associated cases was several-fold higher than the hospitalized cases. Conclusions: Influenza virus was associated with a substantial amount of severe disease in Kenya and Guatemala. This method can be performed in most low and lower-middle income countries

A Broken Trust: Lessons from the Vaccine–Autism Wars: Researchers long ago rejected the theory that vaccines cause autism, yet many parents don't believe them. Can scientists bridge the gap between evidence and doubt?

Researchers long ago rejected the theory that vaccines cause autism, yet many parents don't believe them. Can scientists bridge the gap between evidence and doubt

Evidence of superficial knowledge regarding antibiotics and their use: Results of two cross-sectional surveys in an urban informal settlement in Kenya

<div><p>We assessed knowledge and practices related to antibiotic use in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Surveys was employed at the beginning (entry) and again at the end (exit) of a 5-month longitudinal study of AMR. Two-hundred households were interviewed at entry, of which 149 were also interviewed at exit. The majority (>65%) of respondents in both surveys could name at least one antibiotic, with amoxicillin and cotrimoxazole jointly accounting for 85% and 77% of antibiotics mentioned during entry and exit, respectively. More than 80% of respondents felt antibiotics should not be shared or discontinued following the alleviation of symptoms. Nevertheless, 66% and 74% of respondents considered antibiotics effective for treating colds and flu in the entry and exit surveys, respectively. There was a high (87%, entry; 70% exit) level of reported antibiotic use (past 12 months) mainly for colds/flu, coughs and fever, with >80% of respondents obtaining antibiotics from health facilities and pharmacies. Less than half of respondents remembered getting information on the correct use of antibiotics, although 100% of those who did reported improved attitudes towards antibiotic use. Clinicians and community pharmacists were highly trusted information sources. Paired household responses (n = 149) generally showed improved knowledge and attitudes by the exit survey although practices were largely unchanged. Weak agreement (κ = -0.003 to 0.22) between survey responses suggest both that unintended learning had not occurred, and that participant responses were not based on established knowledge or behaviors. Targeted public education regarding antibiotics is needed to address this gap.</p></div

Pneumococcal carriage in sub-Saharan Africa--a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal epidemiology varies geographically and few data are available from the African continent. We assess pneumococcal carriage from studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA) before and after the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) era. METHODS: A search for pneumococcal carriage studies published before 2012 was conducted to describe carriage in sSA. The review also describes pneumococcal serotypes and assesses the impact of vaccination on carriage in this region. RESULTS: Fifty-seven studies were included in this review with the majority (40.3%) from South Africa. There was considerable variability in the prevalence of carriage between studies (I-squared statistic = 99%). Carriage was higher in children and decreased with increasing age, 63.2% (95% CI: 55.6-70.8) in children less than 5 years, 42.6% (95% CI: 29.9-55.4) in children 5-15 years and 28.0% (95% CI: 19.0-37.0) in adults older than 15 years. There was no difference in the prevalence of carriage between males and females in 9/11 studies. Serotypes 19F, 6B, 6A, 14 and 23F were the five most common isolates. A meta-analysis of four randomized trials of PCV vaccination in children aged 9-24 months showed that carriage of vaccine type (VT) serotypes decreased with PCV vaccination; however, overall carriage remained the same because of a concomitant increase in non-vaccine type (NVT) serotypes. CONCLUSION: Pneumococcal carriage is generally high in the African continent, particularly in young children. The five most common serotypes in sSA are among the top seven serotypes that cause invasive pneumococcal disease in children globally. These serotypes are covered by the two PCVs recommended for routine childhood immunization by the WHO. The distribution of serotypes found in the nasopharynx is altered by PCV vaccination

Population-Based Incidence of Typhoid Fever in an Urban Informal Settlement and a Rural Area in Kenya: Implications for Typhoid Vaccine Use in Africa

Background: High rates of typhoid fever in children in urban settings in Asia have led to focus on childhood immunization in Asian cities, but not in Africa, where data, mostly from rural areas, have shown low disease incidence. We set out to compare incidence of typhoid fever in a densely populated urban slum and a rural community in Kenya, hypothesizing higher rates in the urban area, given crowding and suboptimal access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene. Methods: During 2007-9, we conducted population-based surveillance in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, and in Lwak, a rural area in western Kenya. Participants had free access to study clinics; field workers visited their homes biweekly to collect information about acute illnesses. In clinic, blood cultures were processed from patients with fever or pneumonia. Crude and adjusted incidence rates were calculated. Results: In the urban site, the overall crude incidence of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) bacteremia was 247 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation (pyo) with highest rates in children 5–9 years old (596 per 100,000 pyo) and 2–4 years old (521 per 100,000 pyo). Crude overall incidence in Lwak was 29 cases per 100,000 pyo with low rates in children 2–4 and 5–9 years old (28 and 18 cases per 100,000 pyo, respectively). Adjusted incidence rates were highest in 2–4 year old urban children (2,243 per 100,000 pyo) which were.15-fold higher than rates in the rural site for the same age group

Use of population-based surveillance to define the high incidence of shigellosis in an urban slum in Nairobi, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, Shigella causes an estimated 160 million infections and >1 million deaths annually. However, limited incidence data are available from African urban slums. We investigated the epidemiology of shigellosis and drug susceptibility patterns within a densely populated urban settlement in Nairobi, Kenya through population-based surveillance. METHODS: Surveillance participants were interviewed in their homes every 2 weeks by community interviewers. Participants also had free access to a designated study clinic in the surveillance area where stool specimens were collected from patients with diarrhea (≥3 loose stools within 24 hours) or dysentery (≥1 stool with visible blood during previous 24 hours). We adjusted crude incidence rates for participants meeting stool collection criteria at household visits who reported visiting another clinic. RESULTS: Shigella species were isolated from 262 (24%) of 1,096 stool specimens [corrected]. The overall adjusted incidence rate was 408/100,000 person years of observation (PYO) with highest rates among adults 34-49 years old (1,575/100,000 PYO). Isolates were: Shigella flexneri (64%), S. dysenteriae (11%), S. sonnei (9%), and S. boydii (5%). Over 90% of all Shigella isolates were resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and sulfisoxazole. Additional resistance included nalidixic acid (3%), ciprofloxacin (1%) and ceftriaxone (1%). CONCLUSION: More than 1 of every 200 persons experience shigellosis each year in this Kenyan urban slum, yielding rates similar to those in some Asian countries. Provision of safe drinking water, improved sanitation, and hygiene in urban slums are needed to reduce disease burden, in addition to development of effective Shigella vaccines

Etiology of Severe Non-malaria Febrile Illness in Northern Tanzania: A Prospective Cohort Study.

The syndrome of fever is a commonly presenting complaint among persons seeking healthcare in low-resource areas, yet the public health community has not approached fever in a comprehensive manner. In many areas, malaria is over-diagnosed, and patients without malaria have poor outcomes. We prospectively studied a cohort of 870 pediatric and adult febrile admissions to two hospitals in northern Tanzania over the period of one year using conventional standard diagnostic tests to establish fever etiology. Malaria was the clinical diagnosis for 528 (60.7%), but was the actual cause of fever in only 14 (1.6%). By contrast, bacterial, mycobacterial, and fungal bloodstream infections accounted for 85 (9.8%), 14 (1.6%), and 25 (2.9%) febrile admissions, respectively. Acute bacterial zoonoses were identified among 118 (26.2%) of febrile admissions; 16 (13.6%) had brucellosis, 40 (33.9%) leptospirosis, 24 (20.3%) had Q fever, 36 (30.5%) had spotted fever group rickettsioses, and 2 (1.8%) had typhus group rickettsioses. In addition, 55 (7.9%) participants had a confirmed acute arbovirus infection, all due to chikungunya. No patient had a bacterial zoonosis or an arbovirus infection included in the admission differential diagnosis. Malaria was uncommon and over-diagnosed, whereas invasive infections were underappreciated. Bacterial zoonoses and arbovirus infections were highly prevalent yet overlooked. An integrated approach to the syndrome of fever in resource-limited areas is needed to improve patient outcomes and to rationally target disease control efforts

Differing Burden and Epidemiology of Non-Typhi Salmonella Bacteremia in Rural and Urban Kenya, 2006–2009

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of non-Typhi Salmonella (NTS) bacteremia in Africa will likely evolve as potential co-factors, such as HIV, malaria, and urbanization, also change. METHODS: As part of population-based surveillance among 55,000 persons in malaria-endemic, rural and malaria-nonendemic, urban Kenya from 2006-2009, blood cultures were obtained from patients presenting to referral clinics with fever ≥38.0°C or severe acute respiratory infection. Incidence rates were adjusted based on persons with compatible illnesses, but whose blood was not cultured. RESULTS: NTS accounted for 60/155 (39%) of blood culture isolates in the rural and 7/230 (3%) in the urban sites. The adjusted incidence in the rural site was 568/100,000 person-years, and the urban site was 51/100,000 person-years. In both sites, the incidence was highest in children <5 years old. The NTS-to-typhoid bacteremia ratio in the rural site was 4.6 and in the urban site was 0.05. S. Typhimurium represented >85% of blood NTS isolates in both sites, but only 21% (urban) and 64% (rural) of stool NTS isolates. Overall, 76% of S. Typhimurium blood isolates were multi-drug resistant, most of which had an identical profile in Pulse Field Gel Electrophoresis. In the rural site, the incidence of NTS bacteremia increased during the study period, concomitant with rising malaria prevalence (monthly correlation of malaria positive blood smears and NTS bacteremia cases, Spearman's correlation, p = 0.018 for children, p = 0.16 adults). In the rural site, 80% of adults with NTS bacteremia were HIV-infected. Six of 7 deaths within 90 days of NTS bacteremia had HIV/AIDS as the primary cause of death assigned on verbal autopsy. CONCLUSIONS: NTS caused the majority of bacteremias in rural Kenya, but typhoid predominated in urban Kenya, which most likely reflects differences in malaria endemicity. Control measures for malaria, as well as HIV, will likely decrease the burden of NTS bacteremia in Africa

The persisting burden of invasive pneumococcal disease in HIV patients: an observational cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The increasing use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and pneumococcal immunization along with shifting community exposures may have altered the burden of <it>Streptococcus pneumoniae </it>disease in HIV-infected persons. We describe the burden and risk factors for pneumococcal disease in the modern era of HIV care and evaluate the use of a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV-23).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) between January 1^st, 2000 and January 1^st, 2010 in a regional HIV population in Southern Alberta, Canada was determined by linking comprehensive laboratory and hospital surveillance data. Clinical and epidemiologic data including risk factors for <it>S. pneumoniae</it>, history of pneumococcal immunization, serotypes of infections, and length of any hospitalizations for pneumococcal disease were evaluated with multivariate analysis. CD4 count and viral load at immunization were evaluated with a nested case-control analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 1946 HIV-patients with 11,099 person-years of follow up, there were 68 distinct episodes of pneumococcal disease occurring in 50 patients. Increased risk was seen if female, age >60, Aboriginal ethnicity, lower education, injection drug use, smoking, nadir CD4 <200/μL, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and hepatitis C. Overall, the incidence of IPD was 342/100,000 person-years and was reduced to 187/100,000 within three years of PPV-23 immunization (P < 0.01). Although 78% of patients received PPV-23, 74% of IPD episodes were caused by PPV-23 serotypes. In a case-control analysis, HIV viral load at immunization was significantly predictive of PPV-23 failure, while CD4 count was not. 80% of IPD cases required hospitalization: median length of stay was 7 days (range: 1-71); four patients died.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite universal access to intensive measures to prevent pneumococcal disease including the widespread use of HAART and PPV-23 immunization, the incidence of IPD remains high in HIV patients with its associated morbidity and mortality.</p