How well do RCMs and ESDs reproduce the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America? A case study approach

Individual extreme precipitation eventsover Southeastern South America(SESA)during thes pringand summer time are responsible of more than 40% of the total accumulated seasonal precipitation. These extreme events are associated with the occurrence of organized convection in the region.Giventhe mesoscale features involved in their development..Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Blazquez, Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Díaz, Gonzalo Martín. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Balmaceda, Rocio. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Poggi, María Mercedes. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaThe International Conference on Regional Climate CordexBeijingChinaWorld Climate Research Programm

Poblamiento y Sociedad en el valle medio del Ebro durante la Antigüedad Tardía. Asentamientos rurales y cristianización entre los siglos IV y VIII.

Estudio de la evolución de los asentamientos rurales del valle medio del Ebro durante la Antigüedad Tardía (siglos IV-VIII) y de sus condicionantes sociales, con especial atención al proceso de implantación y difusión del cristianismo en estos territorios.<br /

A comparison of statistical downscaling techniques for daily precipitation: results from the CORDEX flagship pilot study in South America

Southeast South America (SESA) is one of the regions of the planet where extreme precipitation events occur and have high impact on human activities. These extreme events result from the complex interactions of a broad range of scales, therefore their study, modelling and projections in a changing climate continue to be a challenging task. The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in South America (FPSSESA) addresses this topic in order to advance in the understanding and modelling of extreme precipitation events based on coordinated experiments using different downscaling approaches. In this work we present the results from the collaborative action to intercompare different statistical downscaling techniques in simulating daily precipitation in SESA with special focus on extremes. To this end, seven statistical downscaling models based on the regression and analog families were evaluated over SESA. The sensitivity to the different predictor and predictand datasets were tested using two reanalyses (ECMWF ERA-Interim and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis JRA-55) and two daily precipitation (station data and MSWEP) datasets. The models were calibrated and cross-validated during the 1979-2009 period and also evaluated in the independent warm season of 2009-2010. This season, with record of extreme precipitation events, is the target season chosen in the FPS-SESA to perform the dynamical downscaling simulations as well, and therefore it allows for comparisons between both approaches. The results show that the methods are more skillful when combined predictors including circulation variables at middle levels and local humidity at low levels of the atmosphere are considered. The performance of the models is also sensitive to reanalysis choice. The methods show overall good performance in simulating daily precipitation characteristics over the region, but no single model performs best over all validation metrics and aspects evaluated.Fil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Gutiérrez Llorente, José Manuel. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Iturbide, Maialen. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Baño Medina, Jorge. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Huth, Radan. Karlova Univerzita (cuni); República ChecaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Llopart, Marta. Universidad Estadual de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Lavín Gullón, Álvaro. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Chou, Sin Chan. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos; BrasilFil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaInternational Conference on Regional ClimateBeijingChinaWorld Climate Research ProgrammeInstituto Sueco de Meteorología e Hidrologí

Convection-permitting modeling strategies for simulating extreme rainfall events over Southeastern South America

A set of six convection-permitting (CP) domain configurations were implemented to perform 72-hour long simulations of three extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America (SESA). The goal of the study is to determine the most adequate configuration for reproducing not only the rainfall evolution and intensity, but also the synoptic triggering mechanisms that led to these extreme events, taking into account the trade-off between model performance and computational cost. This study assesses the impact of (1) the horizontal resolution in the CP domain, (2) the horizontal resolution of the driver domain, (3) the size of both CP and driver domains and (4) the nesting strategy (one-step versus two-step nesting). Each simulation was performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. For each event and domain configuration, a 6-member physics ensemble is built, making a total of 36 simulations for each event. No significant differences were found between the 4 km and 2.4 km CP ensembles. Increasing the horizontal resolution of the driver domain from 20 km to 12 km introduced only subtle differences. Increasing the size of the CP domain improved the model performance, probably because of better resolved topography and, hence, better resolved synoptic environment. The results in this study reveal that the one-step nesting CP ensemble at 4 km horizontal resolution covering an area of 29 ∘x 21 ∘ (lon-lat) arises as the optimal domain configuration among these tested to simulate extreme precipitation events over SESA.Fil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentin

Multiple stressors and social-ecological traps in Pampean streams (Argentina): A conceptual model

Fluvial systems are particularly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial ecosystems where they are embedded, receiving simultaneously the impact of multiple stressors. The design of adequate management policies requires analyzing fluvial systems as social-ecological systems, because the decoupling of natural and social systems can lead to a severe mismatch between maintaining ecological integrity and the pursuit of human well-being. Pampean streams are especially prone to the impact of human activities because they are located in a region that provides almost half of the agricultural production of Argentina and concentrates 66% of the whole population of the country. In the present work, we conceived a general social-ecological framework that links the occurrence of multiple stressors and their impacts on ecosystem services, with changes in environmental perception of streams, which in turn feedback over institutional actions at the watershed's governance. We identified four current key drivers of the dynamics in Pampean streams: a dominant agro-industrial model for the region, a command-and-control governance regime mainly based on an engineering hydraulic perspective, the real estate market speculation of surrounding lands, and the persistence of structural poverty in urban areas. The resulting dynamics resembles the occurrence of different kinds of social-ecological traps, i.e., a highly stable but undesirable state of the system that is difficult to escape. Based on this analysis, we provide a leverage point perspective to avoid this trap. Together, this approach could be applied to other fluvial systems of the world to link the ecological and social domains to multiple stressors analysis, and to improve institutional fit for the sustainability of fluvial social-ecological systems.Fil: Graziano, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Giorgi, Adonis David Nazareno. Universidad Nacional de Luján. Instituto de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable; ArgentinaFil: Feijoó, Claudia Silvina. Universidad Nacional de Luján. Instituto de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable; Argentin

Demonstracion critico-apologetica del theatro critico universal que dio á luz ... Benito Gerónimo Feyjoó, Benedictino ...

Copia digital. Valladolid : Junta de Castilla y León. Consejería de Cultura y Turismo, 2009-2010Sign.: a-e4, A-Z4, 2A-2Z4, 3A-3O4, 3P

Synoptic forcing associated with extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America as depicted by a CORDEX FPS set of convection-permitting RCMs

Southeastern South America (SESA) stands out as a remarkable region of occurrence of deep convection. This is mainly due to the proximity of the Andes, which eventually determine their magnitude and intensity. In this work, we used a set of convection-permitting (4 km horizontal resolution) regional climate models to explore their ability to reproduce the synoptic forcings that trigger deep convection over La Plata basin. The study considered simulating three extreme convective precipitation events in two different timescales. On one hand, a short-term simulation initiated a few hours before the onset of each event, spanning 3–4 days. On the other hand, as regional climate modelling, a 6-month simulation that includes the three selected events. In contrast to parameterized convection, the convection-permitting resolutions not only intensified the events, but also modified the location of the maximum precipitation by modulating the low-level atmospheric circulation. Vertically integrated moisture flux convergence emerged as a noticeable footprint of deep moist convection, regardless of the model and timescale. The performance of the models in reproducing the observed precipitation was also quantitatively analyzed. The skill depends on the spatial scale. The results were case-dependent in the short-term simulations. However, an analysis over multiple events in the long-term simulations revealed that, in general, convection-permitting resolutions better capture the spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation in SESA. The study comprises the first multi-model ensemble of convection-permitting simulations over the region, a seed for a further analysis with a more complete ensemble to better understand the results presented here.Fil: Lavin Gullon, A.. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Fernandez, J.. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: da Rocha, R. P.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin

Evaluation of multiple downscaling tools for simulating extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America: a case study approach

A collection of 10 high-impact extreme precipitation events occurring in Southeastern South America during the warm season has been analyzed using statistical (ESD) and dynamical downscaling approaches. Regional Climate Models from the CORDEX database for the South American domain at two horizontal resolutions, 50 km and 25 km, short-term simulations at 20 km and at 4 km convective-permitting resolution and statistical downscaling techniques based on the analogue method and the generalized linear model approach were evaluated. The analysis includes observational datasets based on gridded data, station data and satellite products that allow assessing the observational uncertainty that characterizes extreme events in the region. It is found that the ability of the modelling strategies in capturing the main features of the extreme rainfall varies across the events. The higher the horizontal resolution of the models, the more intense and localized the core of the rainfall event, being the location of the exit region of the low-level jet and the low-level moisture flux convergence during the initial stages of the events the most relevant features that determine models’ ability of capturing the location and intensity of the core of the heavy rainfall. ESD models based on the generalized linear approach overestimate the spatial extension of the events and underestimate the intensity of the local maxima. Weather-like convective-permitting simulations depict an overall good performance in reproducing both the rainfall patterns and the triggering mechanisms of the extreme events as expected, given that these simulations are strongly controlled by the initial conditions.Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Doyle, Moira Evelina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Feijoó, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Martinez, D.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Blazquez, Josefina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Balmaceda Huarte, Rocio. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Precipitation Diurnal Cycle Assessment in Convection-Permitting Simulations in Southeastern South America

Convection-permitting (CP) simulations were evaluated during the wet season from October 2009 to March 2010, characterized by numerous extreme daily rainfall events in southeastern South America. We analyzed six simulations using WRY (versions 3.8.1 and 3.9.0) and RegCM4, considering parameterized convective processes (20 km resolution, non-CP) and a nested CP domain (4 km resolution, with convective parameterization switched off). First, we assessed the performance of six gridded datasets (CMORPH, ERA5, GSMAP, MSWEP, PERSIANN, and TRMM) in reproducing 3-h accumulated precipitation observed in 54 stations. The station data exhibited highly diverse diurnal cycles of precipitation, with different times for maximum and minimum, often showing double peaks. The most intense peak is observed at 09:00 am local time (LT), representing nighttime precipitation. CMORPH and ERA5 showed better agreement with the observations. The non-CP simulations failed to capture the diversity of diurnal cycles observed, which is better captured by CP simulations. When comparing non-CP and CP, WRF-CP shifts the afternoon peaks (at 12:00 pm and 03:00 pm LT) to the morning (at 06:00–09:00 am LT), while RegCM4-CP shifts some peaks from dawn (at 03:00 am LT) to the morning (at 09:00 am LT). Both shifts, along with the increase in the diversity of diurnal cycles, are notable features to obtain better agreement of CP simulations with local observations. The observed morning peak of mean precipitation diurnal cycles is primarily influenced by higher frequency of heavy rainfall events rather than by their intensities.Fil: Porfírio da Rocha, Rosmeri. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Llopart, Marta. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Simões Reboita, Michelle. Universidade Federal de Itajubá; BrasilFil: Bettolli, Maria Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Milovac, Josipa. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Feijoó, Martín. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Itali