Model of traveling ionospheric disturbances

A multiscale semi-empirical model of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) is developed. The model is based on the following assumptions: (1) TIDs are generated by acoustic-gravity waves (AGWs) and propagate as pressure waves; (2) time intervals between adjacent extrema of atmospheric pressure oscillations in a disturbance source are constant; (3) the pressure extrema propagate from the source up to ~14 000 km at a constant horizontal velocity; (4) the velocity of each extremum is determined only by its number in a TID train. The model was validated using literature data on disturbances generated by about 20 surface and high-altitude nuclear explosions, two volcano explosions, one earthquake and by energetic proton precipitation events in the magnetospheric cusp of the northern hemisphere. Model tests using literature data show that the spatial and temporal TID periods may be predicted with an accuracy of 12%. Adequacy of the model was also confirmed by our observations collected using transionospheric sounding. The following TID parameters: amplitudes, horizontal spatial periods, and a TID front inclination angle in a vertical plane are increasing as the distance between an AGW and the excitation source is increasing. Diurnal and seasonal variability of the TID occurrence, defined as ratio of TID events to the total number of observations for the corresponding period, is not observed. However, the TID occurrence was growing from ~50% in 1987 to ~98% in 2010. The results of other studies asserting that the TID occurrence does not depend on the number of sunspots and magnetic activity are confirmed. The TID occurrence has doubled over the period from 1987 to 2010 indicating increasing solar activity which is not associated with sunspot numbers. The dynamics of spatial horizontal periods was studied in a range of 150–35 000 km