Additional file 3: of Ticks are more suitable than red foxes for monitoring zoonotic tick-borne pathogens in northeastern Italy

Figure S2. Pattern of tick-borne pathogens found in Ixodes ricinus in the five permanent sites according to year of sampling. Abbreviations: Apha, Anaplasma pagocytophilum; Bbs.l., Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato) complex; Bafz, Borrelia afzelii; Bbs.s., Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu stricto); Bval, Borrelia valaisiana; CNmi, “Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis”; Rhel, Richettsia helvetica; Rmon, Rickettsia monacensis. (TIFF 161 kb

Additional file 1: of Ticks are more suitable than red foxes for monitoring zoonotic tick-borne pathogens in northeastern Italy

Table S1. Ticks collected in 2011–2016 organized in pools, data of sites and results of molecular screening. (XLS 172 kb

Systems of differential equations describing the dynamics of CDV (top) and rabies (bottom).

<p>By convention we note . For ease of visualisation, in each equation, we separate the dynamics that were affected by either demographic, disease (entering or leaving a compartment due to disease development and virulence induced mortality) or vaccination factors. While the transmission parameter will be estimated, other parameters values can be found in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0061588#pone-0061588-t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a>.</p

Flow chart between different compartments for the CDV and rabies models.

<p>By convention, each compartment is characterised by the density of susceptible , exposed , infectious ( for CDV see methods) and recovered from CDV or vaccinated against rabies. In the flow chart, demography and virulence induced mortality are omitted leaving only the links between compartments due disease acquisition and development. The corresponding system of differential equations is presented in the <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0061588#s2" target="_blank">materials and methods</a> section.</p

Parameters for the rabies and CDV epidemic models in foxes.

<p>Using a maximum likelihood approach, we estimated transmission, vaccination and bias parameters, given values of the other parameters drawn from the literature. These parameters clearly point at a higher virulence of rabies' virus both in term of case fatality and life expectancy once infectious.</p

Cases of rabies in domestic and wildlife animals in Italy, 2008–2010.

<p>Although many species were affected, including domestic animals, the main reservoir for rabies appears to be foxes.</p

Observed (circle) and expected (solid line) positive cases of CDV (black) and rabies (blue) in the fox population from 2006 to 2010.

<p>The fit was obtained by maximum likelihood and corresponds to and equal to 0.13 and 0.28 respectively. Both diseases were estimated to have started during the same quarter as they were first observed. The rate of vaccination was estimated at <i>v</i> = 0.006 and CDV samples prior to the last quarter of 2009 were estimated to be biased toward reporting <i>z</i> = 9.6 times more CDV positive foxes than CDV negative foxes. Based on each set of parameters' estimates from the bootstrap procedure we obtain each expected trajectory and thus obtain the 95% confidence interval around our model fit for each quarter, broken lines (this ignores temporal correlations within each trajectory). In the upper panels, for each disease, we present the sampling sizes for each quarter as well as the proportion of samples taken on either dead or living animals.</p

Spread of rabies in wildlife carnivores between 2008 and 2010.

<p>Again colour coding indicates the year of observations, with the epidemics starting in the Udine province in 2008 and most detected cases observed in the Belluno province during 2010.</p

Spread of CDV in wildlife in north-eastern Italy between 2006 and 2010.

<p>Cases in Lombardia are not shown. Colour coding indicates the year of observations, with the epidemics starting in the Bolzano and Udine province in 2006 and having spread to Trento, Vicenza and Belluno province by 2010. Most cases of CDV concentrated in the Trento province.</p